Tzunami Covid-19 on consumption. This was revealed by an analysis by the Confcommercio Studies Office, according to which in 2020 consumption will fall by 10,9%. In numbers it means that by the end of the year they will go 116 billion euro up in smoke, 1.900 euros per capita.
PEAK CONSUMPTION IN NORTHERN ITALY
At the territorial level, the North will be the most penalized area, (-11,7% equal to -65 billion), a drop that will bring the level of consumption back to the mid-90s. Evidence, comments the association, "which confirms the uniqueness of the current year in the post-war Italian economic history".
60% of the overall national decline will in fact be concentrated in the 8 regions of the North, with the Lombardia to conquer the negative primacy: in absolute values the loss for the region will be equal to 22,6 billion euros of consumption.
The South is a little better (-8,5%) with Campania losing 8,8% of consumption and Sicily 8,2%. This is linked, according to traders, to the lower presence of foreign tourists and the greater weight of workers whose disposable income has not been affected by the lockdown. But the reaction capacity of the South - continues the study - "are much more limited". Not to mention that in the last 10 years consumption in the North has risen by three percentage points, while spending in the South has lost more than ten percentage points in real terms.
"In any case - underlines Confcommercio - the overall picture appears disheartening and in all territories, for different reasons, they should spend at least five years to return to 2019 per capita spending levels. Therefore, fundamental structural reforms remain, to be financed in part with European funds, in order to return to growth at a pace more consistent with the legitimate expectations of households and businesses".
"No area of the country - warns the president of Confcommercio, Charles Sangalli – was spared from the consequences of Covid. In the current year we will lose over 116 billion in consumption and about 9,5 points of GDP. To return to growth, thanks also to European funds. We need more incisive and rapid measures in their application. Time is not in our favor and the fiscal and bureaucratic knots that are slowing down growth still need to be resolved”
CONSUMPTION: THE RANKING OF THE REGIONS
According to the analysis on regional consumption in 2020 carried out by the Confcommercio research office, Lombardy will be the region in absolute values in which consumption will contract the most (-22,6 billion). In percentage terms, however, the negative record belongs to Trentino Alto Adige, where consumption will drop by -16%. Veneto (-15,1%), Valle d'Aosta (-14,2%), Tuscany (-13,8%), Lazio (-11,8%) and Emilia Romagna (- -10,9%).
Smaller reductions are instead expected in Molise (-7,2%), Puglia (-7,8%) and Basilicata (-7,9%).
