The Confindustria Study Center has cut its growth forecasts Italian GDP in 2016 (+0,8% to +0,7%) and in 2017 (from +0,6% to +0,5%), emphasizing that our country's economy is weaker than expected and the risks for next year they are increasing.
Furthermore, in the new estimates, the CsC confirms the deficit/GDP ratio to 2,5% in 2016 and 2,3% in 2017, while the debt it is revised to 133,3% of GDP for this year (from 133,4% in July) and is confirmed at 134% for next year. Rate predictions unemployment they remain at 11,5% for this year, but rise to 11,2% (from 11,1%) for the next.
“The Italian economy is weaker than expected – writes the CSC in its periodic report on economic scenarios -. The risks keep to the downside. The growth indicated for 2017, although already completely unsatisfactory, is not taken for granted and must be conquered".
According to Luca Paolazzi, director of the CSC, "we are unable to free ourselves from the disease of slow growth we have been suffering from since the beginning of 2000" and at current rates, the moment in which Italy will be able to reconnect to the pre-crisis level "is postponed to 2028".
Compared to the July estimates, both the global and domestic scenarios have worsened, and to this we add "an increase in uncertainty linked this time also to the political factor“, explains Paolazzi, citing the unknowns associated with a series of events ranging from elections for the White House to the presidential elections in France, up to politics in Germany.
In a scenario of industrial production at a standstill, credit to businesses still scarce and loans to households at a standstill, according to the CsC, it is necessary more investment is needed.
Confindustria then reiterates the importance for the trend of the economy that al constitutional referendum in autumn may the Yes win. As for the Brexit, the association confirms that "the consequences have turned out to be less serious than feared".
