Il world trade by sea will increase by 1,1% this year (12,2 billion tons) and by 2,3% in 2023. Positive signals also come from Italy: at the European level, our country is in second place, after Germany, for the production of added value on the maritime transport (16%); in June 2022 theimport-export of Italy it came close to 184 billion euros with an increase of 42% compared to the previous year. Despite the long wave of Covid-19 and the critical supply issues, to which were added geopolitical tensions and the surge in prices, the sector has shown a certain resilience.
This is what emerges from the ninth Annual report "Italian Maritime Economy", drawn up by the Intesa Sanpaolo Study Center (Srm) on the occasion of the Naples Shipping Week 2022, the international week of shipping and sea culture, of which SRM is a knowledge partner. This time the analysis focused on the impact that the pandemic and war in Ukraine have had on sea transport and logistics: both are worth about 12% of global GDP.
“From this report it emerges clearly how the pandemic , war are reinforcing some trends that were already underway, such as the shortening of supply chains and the tendency of many companies to bring production sites closer to end markets,” he said Massimo DeandreisSRM general manager. In fact, recent estimates indicate that 60% of European and US companies have relocated are considering returning part of their production over the next three years.
“The other important element is the confirmation of the new centrality of the Mediterranean - continued Deandreis -, which is transforming from a simple sea of transit to a sea where trade and logistic activities are growing and where ports, starting from those in Italy and in the South, are becoming increasingly important, also in their new role as energy hubs. The huge resources that the PNRR dedicates to strengthening port infrastructures and the ZES represent an unrepeatable opportunity to strengthen Italy's role in the Mediterranean and for the development of our South".
World trade by sea: freight rates protagonists of record increases
The trend in freight rates is improving, leading to record increases in the 2019-2021 period. The port of Shanghai, the largest in the world, however, is in a declining phase: after reaching the historic peak of 5 points in January 2022, it fell to 4 in the following seven months, before falling below 3 points in September. The "zero Covid" policy of the Chinese government certainly affected the data, which did not affect the reliability of scheduled services. In July, for the third consecutive month, the percentage of ships arriving on time in ports improved, reaching 40,5%.
Port congestion continues
Punctuality, however, did not alleviate the port congestion. Estimates - reads the report - speak of over 37% of containers unavailable due to the long waits at anchor. Here, this could be one of the reasons which, together with the war and the pandemic, has prompted 60% of European and US companies to consider returning part of their production to their homeland within the next three years.
Trade by sea: the centrality of the Mediterranean
Il Mediterranean continues to be an area of strong port competition and attractive capacity; As of Q2 2022, the UNCTAD Port Liner Shipping Connectivity Index of Med ports has increased by around 20 points since 2006. The gap with Northern European ports is constantly decreasing. The Suez passage, even during the conflict it shows important numbers: 15.329 ships transited in the first 8 months of 2022, an increase of +15,1% on the previous period. However, inflationary trends have prompted the channel to review the tariffs from January 2023: +15% for all types of ships with the exception of bulk carriers and cruise ships for which the increase will be +10%. Suez stands as a strategic junction for traffic in the Mediterranean, continuing to represent 12% of world traffic and 7-8% of oil traffic.
The ports of the South lead the growth
In the first half of 2022, the maritime import-export of South exceeded 41 billion euros (+53% on the previous year). The performance beats that of the whole country (+42%), which in June 2022 was close to 184 billion euros. Sum that makes Italy, in sea transport, responsible for 16% of the added value of the European Union, in second place after Germany.
The push to investments in sustainability of shipowners continues: the latest July data shows that 61% of all orders in the first half of 2022 are for ships using alternative fuels.
