FED AND BOJ PUSH EXCHANGES UP. EUROPE FOLLOWS, BUT CYPRUS IS JUST FROZEN
Europe is experiencing yet another crisis. The others go on.
Last night, at the end of the FOMC meeting, the Fed confirmed its expansionary policy.
The spotlights are now on Tokyo: in a few hours, at the end of the stock market session, the first press conference of the new governor of the Boj, Haruhiko Kuroda, will be held. Traders are expecting an immediate change of direction in monetary policy
Consequently:
The Tokyo Stock Exchange +1,4% resumed its upward march after the hiatus. Shanghai +0,3% and Hong Kong +0,4% are also on positive ground: the PMI index signals that the Chinese recovery continues albeit at a small trot.
The American Stock Exchange is positive again after three consecutive sessions down: Dow Jones +0,39%, Nasdaq +0,78%. The S&P gains 0,67%: from the lows of March 2008 the index has risen by 130%. From the Fed's press release we learn that the recovery, albeit "moderate", is now a reality. But fiscal policy, conditioned by the sequester (never mentioned), is "to a certain extent more restrictive".
In summary, there is no reason to change the Federal Reserve's policy in the foreseeable future: the monthly purchases for 85 billion, therefore, will still go ahead. As expected, the FOMC summit did not introduce any changes in Ben Bernanke's strategies. Indeed, forecasts speak of inflation below 2%, far from the alarm threshold of 2,5%; growth, on the contrary, is expected to be between 2,9 and 3,4%, slightly below the projections for the end of 2012. At this rate, unemployment will not drop steadily below 6,5% before 2015.
MERKEL INSISTS. MEDVEDEV: YOU ARE WORSE THAN THE USSR
Day of recovery for the European stock exchanges after three consecutive sessions down. The crisis in Cyprus is still a long way from being resolved, the prospects are shrouded in fog, but there is widespread hope on the markets that the matter will find a solution.
As usual, Angela Merkel will take care of optimism: reaching an agreement for the rescue of Cyprus will be difficult and there is the potential for risks for the eurozone, the chancellor said yesterday speaking in Berlin in front of an audience of entrepreneurs. 'I must say that appropriate and sustainable solutions are needed' she added referring to the enormous exposure of the island's banking sector, whose assets are equal to 7 times the national GDP. After the parliament's decision to reject the plan that provided for forced withdrawals on bank accounts, she added Merkel, now Nicosia must explain to the officials of the EU-ECB-IMF troika how she intends to reach a political solution. Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaueble intervened last night on the same issue with greater severity, according to whom 'Cyprus is insolvent and it is only his fault'.
The solution could pass through Russia, which is interested in protecting the oligarchs' deposits on the island. But the Cypriot mission in Moscow does not seem to have produced great results. In return, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev does not spare words of fire: the EU's plan on the withdrawal of deposits is “very similar to the attitude held by the Soviet Union in the face of the savings of the invaded countries. But Brussels must know that we live in the XNUMXst century in which the rule applies that the markets must be respected".
PIAZZA AFFARI LEADS THE RECOVERY
In Europe the best stock exchange was that of Milan, where the index FtseMib rose 2,2%. Paris closed up 1,4%, Frankfurt +0,6%. London fell by 0,1%.
Clear improvement on the government bond market: the yield of BTP at 10 years it fell to 4,61%. The spread narrowed to 322, down 14 basis points.
Another positive sign: the differential between Italy and Spain is around 32 basis points. It had been almost wiped out after the electoral outcome. Gold down to 1.606 dollars an ounce (-0,3%). Oil up with Brent traded at 107,8 dollars (+0,3%).
BPM THROUGH THE STARS, MEDIASET ALSO RUNS
Banks led the rise on all European stock exchanges (Stoxx for the sector +0,8%). In the business square Unicredit rose by 3,9%, Understanding+ 3,4% Banco Popolare + 4,4% Mount Paschi +2,7%. leap of Banking Pop.Emilia + 5,8%.
The strongest upside is by Pop.Milan +11% after the board of directors approved the process for the transformation from cooperative bank to joint-stock company. The capital increase of 500 million necessary for the repayment of the Tremonti bonds will take place after the summer. Thanks to the operation, Tier 1 will exceed the 10% level.
Among the insurance Generali+ 2,7% Unipol + 3,4%.
He shone among the Milanese blue chips Mediaset, up 5,5% after promotion to neutral (from sell) by Goldman Sachs.
Among industrial stocks Fiat Industrial rose by 0,4%, led by Deutsche Bank a buy. Big run of Ansaldo + 5,8% Finmeccanica + 0,7%.
Backtrack by Fiat -0,8%: yesterday Sergio Marchionne warned that the trading profit of the first quarter of 2013 will be lower than that of the first quarter of 2012.
Enel rose by 2,7%, A2A + 3,9%
Atlantia +4,3%. The independent Spanish broker Fidentis judges the exchange (nine Gemina shares against one Atlantia) biased in favor of Atlantia, because it was established on market prices distorted by the purchases of shares by the Benettons. Fundamentals recommend a ratio of eight to one
Eni gained 1,9%, Tenaris + 2,7%. Telecom Italy it rose by 1,7%.
Mondadori -1,32%. The new managing director of Mondadori, Ernesto Mauri, expects to recover 40 million ebitda when fully operational thanks to work on the group's Italian periodicals. while the signs on advertising sales remain weak, which in the first two months of the year shows a drop of around 13%. “Our priority is the defense of the core business, profitability on books is positive, as well as for magazines in France. The problem is Italy, but we have already taken action on this with a restructuring and cost-cutting plan on the one hand, and a plan to relaunch strong brands on the other”.
Parmalat closed 2012 with a net profit of 172,2 million euros, an increase of 1,1% compared to 2011. The turnover was 5,2 billion (+16,4%), the gross operating margin of 439,2 million (+17,4%), while net financial availability decreased from 1,5 billion to 809,8 million. The net profit of the parent company Parmalat spa was 143,2 million, down 24,1% compared to 2011. The board's proposal is for a dividend of 0,039 euros per share, down from 0,052 euros last year. year.
