CHINA, SPAIN (AND MONTI) PUSH THE BAGS. AND WALL STREET SNOBES THE BRAKING OF THE GDP
Jeffrey Rosernberg, head of Blackrock's bonds, judges Italy "very interesting" given the yields and the lower risk profile of Spain. Public Debt Director General Maria Cannata underlines the return of international investors to longer maturities.
The Bel Paese thus nonchalantly passed yesterday's BTP auction: the Treasury placed 5,6 billion 5- and 10-year bonds with yields down from 5,82% to 5,24%. On the secondary market, the 10-year BTP was traded in the evening at a yield of 5,09% (from 5,17% in the morning) and the spread fell to 365 (down 8 basis points): effect of availability by Mario Monti not to move from Palazzo Chigi.
China is close. At least that's what the financial markets are hoping for, already in a crisis of withdrawal from central bank stimuli. The rumors arriving from semi-official sources (the Xinhua News Agency), according to which the Beijing government is about to announce measures to stimulate growth, have restored confidence in the stock markets. The interventions could be formalized in the first days of October.
The Shanghai Stock Exchange believes it, reaching a percentage point increase which adds to the +2,6% recorded on Wednesday. Hong Kong climbs 0,31%. Tokyo more cautious – 0,80% affected by the slowdown in industrial production worse than expected. Wall Street also rose: the S&P advanced by 0,96%, Dow Jones +0,54%, Nasdaq +1,39%.
A surprising rebound, given the negative signs of the economy: GDP growth slows down (+1,3% against a forecast of +1,7%) and consumption (+1,5% against +1,7%) sharply lower than expected. In August, durable goods orders fell 13% (versus a forecast of -5%) while home sales fell 2,6%. But yesterday the US Stock Exchange was able to count on the measures of the Madrid anti-deficit plan, announced too late to influence the EU Stock Exchanges.
In Milan, the FtseMib index rose by 0,2%, London gained 0,2%, Paris +0,7%, Frankfurt +0,1%. Oil prices rose with Wti rising to 91,4 dollars a barrel (+1,6%) and Brent to 111,8 dollars (+1,6%). Madrid has put the homework list on paper: a detailed plan for the country's economic reforms and a budget for 2013 which will be based above all on spending cuts and not on new taxes. An operation that is probably a prelude to the rescue request to be made in Brussels.
In detail, the ministers of the Spanish government will see their budgets reduced by 8,9%, while tax revenues will grow by 3,8%. In addition, the government will enact 43 new laws to reform the economy. Deputy Prime Minister Saenz de Santamaria has announced that an independent tax authority will be set up to help control the deficit cut. Interventions on the labor market will be deepened and the energy, services and telecommunications sectors will be further liberalised. In addition, 3 billion will be taken from social security reserves to meet liquidity needs.
The Spanish determination, in addition to the news arriving from China (just rumors, but sufficient to galvanize the Frankfurt price list, now linked to the state of health of the Celestial Empire) allow us to predict a positive start to the last session in September. October, statistics say, is a positive month. On Wall Street, over the past twenty years, the month has closed on average with an increase of 1,8%.
In Europe yesterday the best stocks were those related to raw materials (Stoxx of the mining sector +1,1%), banks (+1%) and tech (+1%). On the Milanese price list it ran Campari +3,3%, driven by the promotion of JP Morgan. On the other hand, it fell Fiat -2,1%, after Volkswagen said that 2013 will still be a very tough year for the sector and there are European manufacturers that could go bankrupt without state aid. Volkswagen it lost 2,1%.
Among the financial stocks, it stands out Azimuth +3,1%, which has launched a joint venture in Türkiye. Generali rose 1%. Among the banks, Understanding closed unchanged, Ubi rose by 0,1%, Unicredit +0,8%. Sharp rise of Mediobanca +2,9%. Despite the rise in crude oil, Eni it fell 0,4%, still on the rise Tenaris +0,8%. Positive day for Telecom Italy +1,4% which benefits from the increasingly dense rumors about the possible spin-off of the network. Brilliant boosters for Buzzi +2,8% and Diasorin + 1,2%.
The City Council of Milan, after a 28-hour marathon, approved with 25 votes in favor and 2 against the Sea-Serravalle resolution concerning the guidelines on the joint sale by the Province of Milan (through Asam) and the Municipality of Milan of blocks of shares respectively held in the company Milano Serravalle-Milano Tangenziali Spa and on the resumption of the process of listing Sea on the Stock Exchange. The resolution, explains a note, was declared immediately enforceable by the vote of the Council, the provision was approved by the City last September 20th.
