In addition to having certain repercussions on the Spanish and international political balance, the possible detachment of Catalonia from Madrid will certainly affect the economic and financial relations that numerous multinationals have with the Generalitat. Important credit institutions such as Banco Sabadell and Caixabank have already decided to move their registered offices to other Iberian regions.
Another large company that has moved in this direction is Abertis, which manages the Spanish motorway network and has been in the sights of Atlantia for months.
According to CRIF Ratings, in the event of a declaration of independence in Catalonia there could be problems for the renewal of the concessions of two contracts (Acesa and Invicat), which represent around 35% of the kilometers - 545 to be exact - of motorways managed by Abertis in Spain, expiring on 31 August 2021.
“The re-domiciliation of the Abertis registered office, from Barcelona to Madrid, served to keep the market volatility created following the referendum vote under control. However, given the particular circumstances characterizing Abertis at this time, with a formal purchase offer from Atlantia Spa and a potential counter-offer from ACS SA (with BB+ rating and Positive Outlook from CRIF Ratings), the expiry of concessions which generate more than a third of the EBITDA achieved by the group in Spain could constitute a question mark for investors” declared Borja Monforte, Head of International Operations of CRIF Ratings.
In 2016, Abertis generated consolidated EBITDA of €3,2 billion, of which €1,1 billion from operations in Spain. In the absence of precise data on the EBITDA generated by the two concessions, CRIF Ratings estimates, on the basis of a hypothesis of kilometers managed by Acesa and Invicat, that around 350-400 million of EBITDA per year could be at risk in the event that the scenario of independence materializes. The Catalan portfolio contributes 11,5% to Abertis' consolidated EBITDA” - adds Monforte.
CRIF recognizes a medium-term situation of uncertainty which could have an impact on the corporate operations in which Abertis is currently involved. Failure to renew the concessions could be compensated for by replacing the expired ones with new ones, as historically demonstrated by Abertis. Moreover, it should be added that Abertis has significantly reduced the degree of concentration of its activity in Spain in the last 6 years (in 2011, the Spanish order book represented approximately 41% of the total compared to 19% in 2017).
In a scenario of independence for Catalonia, the Catalan government could decide to nationalize the aforementioned outdated concessions (both awarded in 1967) or opt for a revision of the agreement. CRIF Ratings points out that the nationalization scenario is highly probable even in the event of normalization of the situation in Catalonia and Spain.
The toll motorways managed under concession by Acesa amount to 479 kilometers (AP-7 and AP-2 motorways) and the agreement was signed with the Spanish central government (through the “Ministerio de Fomento”). Invicat manages 66 kilometers of toll motorways (C-32, C-31 and C-33) and the concession has been signed with the Catalan regional government.
