Catalonia, the Fed and oil are at the center of attention at the start of the week. Asian stock exchanges moved little, but shares of Apple suppliers rose in Taiwan. The Japanese Stock Exchange is down slightly after last week's +1,4%: Nikkei index -0,2%. The Chinese markets were also weak: CSI300 index of the Shanghai and Shenzen lists -0,4%. Hong Kong gains 0,1%. South Korea (Kospi index +0,2%) and India (BSE Sensex index +0,4%) increased:
Energies are also doing well: crude remains above sixty dollars this morning (Brent at 60,40 dollars, Wti at 53.95). Saudi Arabia is pressing producers to extend output cuts beyond March.
BARCELONA STALED AFTER THE UNIONIST PROCESS
The euro is still weak. The single currency slid to 1,1613 against the dollar, the lowest since July, pending developments in the Catalan crisis. Yesterday the unionists (from 300 to 1,3 million people according to estimates) marched through the streets of Barcelona in favor of national unity. The tension promises to last at least until the regional elections of December 22 in a surreal climate.
The Catalan government, deposed, has not taken any substantial steps to enforce independence. On the part of Madrid, in the last 48 hours, there have been no direct actions, apart from the dismissal of the regional police chief. This morning, many Catalan officials will have to decide who to be loyal to: the Catalan Generalitat or the central state. In all of this, at nine o'clock, the data on Spain's GDP for the third quarter is published.
FED, FAVORITE IS POWELL
On the other hand, both the good data on gross domestic product, released on Friday, and the wait for the appointment of the new Fed president, the most important decision for the financial markets, play in favor of the dollar.
The favorite, according to The Wall Street Journal is the dove Jerome Powell. The President should make the decision before leaving for his eleven-day trip to Asia in which he will visit Japan, South Korea, China, the Philippines and Vietnam. Meanwhile Janet Yellen withdrew from the press conference following this week's board meeting. However, the members of the board will have to evaluate the strength of the recovery of the US economy: after the confirmation of the increase in the gross domestic product to 3% in the third quarter, the data on employment should signal 300 hirings in the month of November as well as a significant increase in wages. Among the data arriving today also household incomes and consumer spending in September.
JAPANESE RATES STILL, BRITISH RATES GO UP
The Bank of Japan board meeting will also be held tomorrow and Wednesday, followed by a press conference by Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. The confirmation of the negative interest rate policy in view of the new wave of Abenomics is expected. Equally obvious is the re-election of Kuroda, whose first term will expire in April.
The meeting of the Bank of England is expected to be much more eventful, which will have to decide whether to raise the rates on the pound from the current 0,25 to 0,50% after ten years. There are six board members in favor of the increase, three against.
Once the accommodating policy followed by Mario Draghi has been confirmed (and the by now customary criticisms of Jens Weidman, governor of the Bundesbank) have been received, the ECB is preparing to deal with the possible fallout of the Spanish crisis on the euro. Economic sentiment data for the Eurozone is due today. Tomorrow the Frankfurt Stock Exchange will be closed for public holidays.
TODAY THE BTP AUCTION AFTER THE PROMOTION OF THE RATING
For once the good news comes from Italy. S&P upgraded its rating to BBB from BBB- on Friday evening, citing the overall improvement in the economy and banks in particular. In this context, the Treasury's auction on 5 and 10-year CcTeu and BTp for an amount up to 7,5 billion will be held tonight.
There is expectation for the intervention of Ignazio Visco who will speak on Tuesday at Savings Day, after his reconfirmation as governor of Bank of Italy and the controversies that preceded his appointment. On the macro front, the inflation and unemployment data should also be reported during the week.
GOLDMAN SACHS: 75 BILLION BUY BACKS WITH LIGHT TAXES
Wall Street picks up again after Friday's technology rally (Nasdaq +1,5%). Since the beginning of 2017, the S&P index has gained 14,4%. Some observers are concerned about the growth in the P/E ratio, which has reached 22,6 times against a historical average of 19,5. But the expectation of Donald Trump's tax reform favors an upturn in the end of the year. Analysts are reviewing the accounts in the light of the corporate tax cut to 20% from the current 35%. According to Goldman Sachs, the reform should lead to a 12% increase in corporate profits, or 156 billion dollars, freeing up 75 billion dollars for share buyback operations.
APPLE ACCOUNTS ARE COMING. THE BET IS THE IPHONE X
In this frame the parade of the quarterly continues. Above all that of Apple, +3,6% on Friday. The market awaits news on the sales of the i Phone X, after the start of deliveries on Friday 27. According to rumors, Apple has only 2-3 million pieces in stock to serve the market in the next few days. According to the Nikkei Times, Apple will distribute only 20 million units to the market by the end of the year, much less than requested.
After the record performances of Alphabet and Amazon, expectations for Facebook accounts are also rising. Among the quarterly reports arriving during the week there are also those of Pfizer, Kraft Heinz, Ralph Lauren, Aig, Starbucks, Yum Brands and Procter & Gamble.
IN PIAZZA AFFARI THE ACCOUNTS OF FERRARI AND TENARIS
On the quarterly front, Terni Energia should be reported today. Tomorrow will be the turn of CNH Industrial and Ansaldo Sts. Tenaris' accounts will arrive on Wednesday (at the same time as BP, followed the day after by Shell) and on Thursday it will be Ferrari's and Ei Towers' turn.
SOLE 24 ORE, 80 PAGES DEDICATED TO RISKS IN THE PROSPECTUS
Today will see the start of the capital increase of Il Sole 24 ore. In the prospectus there are 80 pages dedicated to the “risk factors associated with the transaction (amount of 50 million). Risks associated with the group's financial debt, due to the failure to implement the plan, risks on sales, dividends, and failure to sign agreements with banks. The auditors also highlight "the existence of significant factors of uncertainty which give rise to significant doubts on the ability of the group to continue operating on the basis of the assumption of business continuity".
MEDIOBANCA, THE STRONGEST FUNDS OF THE PACT
Among the stocks to follow today Mediobanca after Saturday's shareholders' meeting in which the shares of institutional investors exceeded the pact for the first time (29,6% against 28,6%). Replying to the shareholders, Alberto Nagel reiterated his intention to sell a part of his stake in Generali, even more than the expected 3%, in the face of opportunities to reinvest the proceeds "in activities that create value". The transfer may take place through a placement on the market or privately. “A year ago there was a need to sell from a capital point of view. It no longer exists but there is always the opportunity to do so”, said Nagel, not excluding the hypothesis of the transfer of the share in a vehicle to be shared with other investors, in which Piazzetta Cuccia would have 51%.
