The financial week kicks off with a moderate recovery, after the setback of the last few days: the MSCI World index has closed down all the last five sessions and the overall decline was 2,1%. Since the beginning of the year, the gain has remained considerable, +8,6%, and all observers agree in maintaining that (with the exception of Italy) there is no need to speak of a possible recession. But the risks, from Brexit to the postponement of peace on tariffs, are not lacking.
The indexes of Shanghai and Shenzen increased this morning (+1,3%), in partial recovery after the collapse on Friday (-4%) caused by the (almost unprecedented) rejection of the rating of a state insurance company by Citic. Hong Kong +0,6%.
Tokyo is also making a timid recovery (+0,2%) after four sessions in the red. On the other hand, the price lists of South Korea (-0,2%) and Australia (-0,3%) were negative. The Mumbai Stock Exchange opened up 0,7%. The Indian rupee is also appreciating, reaching the highs of the last two months against the dollar. The Chinese yuan moved little. The yen, Asia's safe haven currency, appreciated against the dollar at 111,1, after +0,6% last week.
TOMORROW WE VOTE ON BREXIT, RECOVER THE EURO
On the currency front, the spotlights are already on the pound, at the start of the crucial week for Brexit: The pound fell this morning for the eighth consecutive day against the dollar to 1,2945, the longest negative series in the last ten months. "We are about to arrive at the decisive moment, the one in which, as the great Alex Ferguson said, the benches get hot". Thus, recalling the words of the great Manchester United coach at the beginning of a memorable championship match with Arsène Wenger's Arsenal, he attacks the Times article dedicated to Brexit at the beginning of the crucial week for the British currency. The outcome of the match is almost unpredictable.
The euro recovered a few positions, traded at 1,2315 against the dollar, after reaching its lowest since June 2017 following the ECB's announcements. On Friday, however, the uncertainties of the data on the US labor market arrived (only 20 new jobs in February), numbers that pushed down the dollar and US T-bond yields to 2,607% (minimum for two months). The Fed chairman, Jerome Powell, reiterated that the central bank will use the utmost prudence not only on rates but also in reducing the federal budget, being careful not to cause liquidity shocks.
Brent oil is trading at $62,95 a barrel this morning. The Saudi energy minister ruled out production cuts before June.
EUROGROUP DECIDES ON REIMBURSEMENTS IN ATHENS
The evolution of the situation in London will be at the center of today's Eurogroup, which will have to deal with other thorny issues, starting with the funds (1,1 billion) that must be paid to Greece against the interest earned by the ECB for the operations on Hellenic Bonds. According to some, the operation is not yet possible because Greece has not complied with all the clauses envisaged at the time.
The economic week opens in Europe with data on industrial production and the trade balance in Germany. The forecasts on economic growth by the Bank of France should also be followed.
From the US front, retail sales and business inventories numbers are due today, highly anticipated following a lower-than-expected increase in employment in February. Tomorrow it will be consumer inflation, Wednesday wholesale prices.
ITALY, THE TAV DOES NOT EXIT THE TUNNEL, THE BOT AUCTION TOMORROW
In Italy, eyes focused on the Government after the tiring postponement of the decision on the Tav.
The key appointment of the Italian financial week is set for Friday, when Moody's will express its opinion on our country's rating. The agency had already expressed its opinion on 19 October last, lowering the rating on our country to Baa3 from the previous Baa2, bringing it to one step above the 'junk' level, with an outlook that in any case remains stable.
Meanwhile, Treasury auctions are back. We begin tomorrow with the bond auction and continue on Wednesday with medium-long term issues. A new, significant drop in yields is looming in the wake of the ECB's decisions. The trend of the spread should be followed given the downward trend of the German 0,05-year bond traded at the end of the week at XNUMX%.
ACCOUNTS COMING FOR SAIPEM AND LEONARDO
Full calendar of corporate appointments in Piazza Affari. The most important event is the presentation of Eni's strategic plan 20189/2022, scheduled for Friday, the day after the approval of the consolidated and preliminary results for 2018.
Leonardo's accounts should also be followed (Wednesday the board of directors). The accounts of Saipem, Cir and Enav are out today.
IN THE SPOTLIGHT TOD'S AND PRADA
Close attention is also paid to Tod's results. On the luxury front, the spotlight this morning also on the numbers of Prada, traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Adidas accounts are also planned.
The meeting of D'Amico Shipping and Italia Independent is also on the agenda.
CDP GROWS AGAIN IN TELECOM
To be followed on the price list for purchases on Tim. From a filing sent to the Sec, the US Consob, it emerged that Cassa Depositi e Prestiti rose again in the capital of the former telephone monopolist, reaching 8,7%.
On Wall Street, the accounts of Adobe and Oracle are planned.
