The vaccine operation kicks off today: 100 million doses destined for the United States starting from the first 145 hospitals. However, the ships of Her Majesty the Queen remain in port: for now they will not have to protect scallops and scallops of the English Channel from French fishermen, who will be prohibited from visiting British waters with Brexit. But, despite the proclamations, neither in London nor in Brussels there is a great desire for divorce. And so yesterday, a few hours before the fatal hour, the two sides decided to negotiate again. “As long as there is life there is hope”, said the British prime minister, before warning MPs to be free around Christmas for any extraordinary sittings. The pound gains positions against the euro (to 0,911), which in turn appreciates against the dollar (to 1,213). For now, the risk of a sudden collapse of the City is included. But there are other relevant issues for the market, whose center of gravity is shifting more and more towards Asia.
IN JAPAN THE ECONOMY TAKES FLIGHT
The positive signal comes from Japan. The Nikkei index shines (+0,6%) thanks to the robust and somewhat surprising rebound of the Tankan index, the most important survey on the expectations of large industries. In the fourth quarter of 2020, thanks to a broad and generalized recovery, the index rose to -10 from -27: the consensus expected -15.
A THOUSAND BILLION DOLLARS IN CHINESE STOCKS SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR
Next comes China. The CSI 300 index of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is up 0,5%. The dollar-yuan cross was little moved this morning, around 6,53%, but epochal news is announced for Beijing's finance, especially important for those who look through ETFs on the Dragon Exchange. The stock exchange authorities have removed from the baskets the most important historic but now insignificant securities such as Bank of China, replacing them with some digital champions.
Citigroup chief economist Liu Li-gang quoted by Bloomberg says a deluge of liquidity will pour into yuan bonds. Citigroup expects the dollar-yuan exchange rate to hit levels not seen since China's unification at around six by the end of 2021, but perhaps even sooner. The Financial Times he calculates that since the beginning of the year, adding up shares and bonds, foreign investments in China have reached about one trillion dollars.
Futures on the S&P index are up (+0,5%) after the compromise on the second emergency aid package reached in the last few hours in the US Congress. The relief and relief measures will be split into two tranches: a $708 billion tranche that will include relief for the unemployed and small businesses, and a $160 billion tranche that will provide coverage to businesses.
SAFE BIDEN. THE FED TOWARDS CONFIRMING QE
The long American electoral saga has come to an end: Joe Biden, with 306 votes, will become president thanks to the vote of 51,3% of voters (against 46,7% for Donald Trump and 232 electors), of which the Supreme Court has dismissed the appeal.
Tomorrow and Wednesday will be held the last meeting of the Federal Reserve board of the year. For the occasion, Jerome Powell should at least confirm the securities purchase plan (120 billion a month) in force since June, the most demanding program ever which has brought the Fed's balance sheet to exceed 7 trillion. The markets expect strong words to confirm the intentions of the US central bank, in line with what the ECB said.
However, it is by no means certain that the markets are ready to indulge in the short run of the Bull. Much will depend on the trend of PMI data on the economic situation of the main European manufacturing economies, grappling with the second wave of the pandemic.
On the corporate front, the announcement over the weekend that Astra Zeneca has acquired a biotech company leader in immunology, specialized in the treatment of rare diseases, for 39 billion dollars should be noted. During the week, FedEx and Nike accounts will be in the spotlight.
Brent oil up 0,5%, to 50,2 dollars a barrel. Gold traded at $1.834 an ounce, down 0,3%.
Italian public finance under stress due to fibrillation on the government, but the outcome of the confrontation in the Eurozone on the Recovery Fund and the decisions of the ECB offer a margin of safety to the BTPs: operators see the spread falling.
BANK DIVIDENDS: THE ECB DECIDES DURING THE WEEK
Hot days for banks. The European Central Bank will have to make a decision on bank dividends this week. The forecast is that the regulators will loosen (but not too much) the limits that have prohibited the distribution of profits since March: only a part of the institutions will be able to pay a coupon which, according to rumors, should not exceed 20% of the profits. The absence of dividends risks significantly affecting the activity of the former banking foundations.
MEDIASET: THE EU BLOCKS THE LAW, BUT THE PROSECUTOR IS AGAINST BOLLORÉ
But attention will also be focused on Mediaset and the rest of the Berlusconi galaxy: last Friday the Milan prosecutor's office, at the end of three years of investigations, formalized the accusation against Vincent Bolloré and Arnaud de Puyfontaine, in 2016 respectively president of the supervisory board and CEO of Vivendi, of having manipulated information aimed at the market in an attempt to take over Mediaset. Yesterday, however, a new twist: Brussels has blocked the Mediaset-saving regulation introduced in the Ristori decree. All on the eve of a probable new intervention by the Tar on the freezing of the Alfa shares acquired by the French group.
Today Stm (0,042 euro) detaches the interim dividend. Last week, the stock fell 13%, worst performance in Milan.
FERRARI, NEW CEO IN VIEW: WILL IT BE MANLEY?
It cannot be excluded that the Ferrari board of directors is already called to choose the successor of Lou Camilleri, who resigned from all positions last week (including those in Philip Morris), probably for health reasons. Among the possible successors, the name of Mike Manley, CEO of Fiat Chrysler, stands out, who in any case from January 4 will not be part of the board of Stellantis, the controlling holding company of FCA/PSA.
The examination of the budget law and the decree with refreshments for the sectors most affected by the pandemic continues in Parliament.
