Borsa Incerte at the end of a session distinguished by numerous novelties. First of all, the dry, albeit defeat of the Democrats in the Mid Term elections. Republicans now have majorities in both houses of Parliament. President Obama will be forced to govern by decree whenever possible.
New signs of slowdown from the Chinese economy. After industry it is now the turn of services. But the theme of the day for the global economy is the fall in oil prices, triggered by the news that Saudi Arabia has widened the discount applied to its premium crude oil.
Brent-type crude futures trade at 82,4 dollars a barrel, down 2,7%, we are at the lows of the last 4 years. The American WTI also fell by 2,8% to 76,50 dollars. From the peaks reached in June at 116 dollars, the drop in what was once called black gold is close to 30%.
The Tokyo stock exchange showed little movement +0,21%, the Asia Pacific index slightly down. Chinese stock markets are advancing pending the arrival of new stimuli from the central bank: Shanghai +1,25%.
Weak Wall Street, under pressure from oil sales: in the end, the Dow Jones index rose by 0,1% while the S&P 500 fell by 0,3% and the Nasdaq by 0,33%. After the outcome of the recovery vote this morning in Tokyo, futures on US stock markets are up by 0,3%.
ITALY HOLDS BACK, THE BTP/BUND SCAP BEYOND 160
The signs of suffering, as usual, come from the European economy, starting from the Italian one. From the European Commission's autumn forecasts, which revised downwards the growth estimates for Italy this year and next, bringing them respectively from +0,6% to -0,4% and from +1,2% to +0,6%. In 2015 only Cyprus will do worse than the Bel Paese. The Stock Exchanges yesterday closed in the red: Frankfurt lost 0,92%, London 0,52%, Paris 1,52% and Madrid 2,12%. The most marked decline concerns Milan: Piazza Affari closed sharply down on the lows of the session: the Ftse Mib index lost 2,3% and once again slips below the psychological threshold of 19 thousand points.
No less disturbing was the jump in the afternoon in the spread between the BTP and the Bund, which thus rose to 161 basis points, more due to the performance of the German bond than to the growth in the yield on the Italian XNUMX-year bond.
IN VIEW OF THE ECB DIRECTORY TORPELLES AGAINST THE PRESIDENT
The mood of the markets has worsened after the rumors of Reuters according to which there is a storm in the Governing Council of the ECB. Draghi would be reproached by some members for not sharing the choices, and for the decision to have communicated to the public the targets for increasing the ECB budget. This reduces the Governor's room for maneuver at the next meetings, starting from tomorrow's.
The reaction on the markets was immediate: shares accelerated downwards, the euro recovered against the dollar while peripheral bonds lost support and lost a handful of points against a very bought bund.
Contrasting forecasts on the outcome of tomorrow's confrontation at the Eurotower. Bnp Paribas has published a long study in which it declares that it expects further measures for December, possibly also a Quantitative Easing on government bonds, and that the move could be anticipated tomorrow by particularly accommodating language at the press conference. The reason would be that the current monetary policy mix is not working, with grave concern for Draghi and colleagues.
But Austrian board member Ewald Nowotny has already anticipated that the central bank will not launch government bond purchase programs this year and that if it does in the future, the breakdown of purchases by country on the basis of the share of capital in the ECB, it would be questionable, as most of the purchases would concern German debt.
ILO STOCKS IN RED. ENI TOWARDS EXIT FROM SOUTH STREAM
Day of passion on the stock exchanges for energy stocks. On Wall Street, the energy sector lost 2,67%. The European sector index is worse -3,8%. In the Italian list, Eni marks a drop of 3,5%, Saipem of 4,8%. The CEO of the six-legged dog, Claudio Descalzi, ruled out a stew for the subsidiary, while he announced that if the estimated budget for the South Stream project were to be exceeded, the group could consider exiting the project.
Bad day for the other stocks linked to the oil industry: Tenaris lost 3,92%, Saras lost 1,85% to 0,7945 euro and Erg 2,96% to 8,69 euro.
MPS ADVANCES AWAITING THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS: BUT THE CHINESE HAS NOT TO PLAY
Today is the day of the board of directors of Monte Paschi which will have to launch the expected capital increase. Credito Fondiario will act as advisor to the operation which could act as a bridge towards a possible integration with another institution even if, in addition to Banco de Santander, other large institutions, such as Intesa SP, Unicredit and BNP have already denied having an interest in MPS Paribas which controls Bnl in Italy.
Yesterday the bank, against the market trend, rose by 5,35% also on the wave of rumors about a hypothetical offer, denied by the institute, arriving from Hong Kong. Consob investigates. Exane raised the recommendation to Outperform from Neutral. Banca Carige also earns 7%.
The rest of the sector is weak, on the eve of the quarterly reports which will start on the 11th with data from Intesa (-3,6%) and Unicredit (-3%). Ubi Banca (-5%, board of directors on the 12th), Banco Popolare -3,1%, Banca Popolare di Milano -4,5% also fell.
UTILITIES, THE AUTHORITY CORRECTS ITSELF. BUT ENEL IS DOWN AGAIN
This partly includes the emergency linked to the communications of the Energy Authority. Yesterday a clarification was released on the methods for calculating tariffs, in particular, it is clarified in the note that it will take real inflation into account: this passage was not included in the document released on Friday evening. The threat of a negative review of the regulatory framework should disappear.
Snam, which dropped 11% on Monday, closed up 3,5%. Terna's rebound +0,2% was much more modest (against a loss of 6,7% on the eve). Still down Enel loses 1,4% and Enel Green Power -1,4%.
LUXURY STILL SUFFERS AFTER HUGO BOSS ACCOUNTS
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles down 1,5% yesterday. Heavy losses, among industrialists, also for Finmeccanica (-3%). Meanwhile, the retreat of luxury continues, also fueled by the warning of Hugo Boss (-5,4%) on 2014 sales and profits. Yoox -6%, Ferragamo -3,7%, Moncler -2%, Tod's -3,5% .
