After a weekend spent on the golf courses Trump Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One yesterday, he showed that he was not at all affected by the collapses in markets around the world since he announced his tariffs, and showed no sign of backtracking, convinced that this bitter medicine will help in the long run. Even one of Trump's biggest supporters in the presidential race, the billionaire fund manager Bill Ackman, saying that tariffs are a “nuclear economic winter” for the world.
In the two days following Trump's tariff announcement, the markets lost $5,4 trillion in value and dragged the S&P500 to its lowest level in 11 months. The S&P500 index closed down -6% on Friday, with a 9,1% drop for the week, while Wall Street futures are anticipating another 4% decline this morning.
The cold was felt again last night in Asia where the Nikkei lost another 6% and Chinese blue chips nearly 7%, despite rumours that Beijing would step in to help with stimulus measures, while Taiwan came back from a hiatus with losses of nearly 10%. Copper gains after an initial decline. It falls to the lowest level in the last three years. Petroleum and is trading at $77.500 bitcoin, a price that has not been seen since November.
JPMorgan now sees a 60% chance of a recession in the United States and Fed rate cuts from June to next January, leaving the funds rate around 3%. Markets even estimate a 50% chance that the Fed could ease monetary policy already in May, despite the president Powell reiterated last week that the central bank is in no rush to act. Yields on two-year treasury bonds, the most sensitive stocks to monetary policy fell by up to 22 basis points, while the yen Japanese and the Swiss franc are increased.
The XNUMX-XNUMX business days will gather its trade ministers later today to decide what kind of retaliation to take. From Wednesday, the 27-nation bloc will face import tariffs of 25% on steel, aluminum and cars, and “reciprocal” tariffs of 20% on almost all other goods. In an interview with Financial Times this morning the governor of the Greek central bank Yannis Stournaras said that US President Donald Trump's tariff measures could slow down economic growth in the euro area by between 0,5 and 1 percentage point. Later today, ECB Governing Council member Piero Cipollone and Fed Governor Kugler will speak.
China Plans to Devalue Yuan. Taiwan Obeys Trump
Asia-Pacific markets are in trouble on Monday, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index at a more than 16-year low. Chinese stocks led a broad and deep sell-off on concerns about the impact of the trade war on the global economy. The stock market Hong Kong reopened with a thud after Friday's close: the index Hang Seng loses -10%, the worst daily variation since 2008. TheHang Seng Tech down 14%CSI 300 Index of Stock Markets Shanghai and Shenzhen -6%. The escalation of the trade war could push Chinese authorities to aggressively devalue the yuan: this hypothesis is being discussed in these hours, after Beijing warned that it wants to respond in a "resolute" way. The move, in theory, would make Chinese exports cheaper but would risk triggering a flight of capital. The administration of President Xi Jinping has already announced a 34% tariff on all imports from the United States starting April 10. Wells Fargo sees the risk of a gradual depreciation of up to 15% of the currency, over a period of two months. According to Jefferies, China could also "go big", even reaching up to 30%. Mizuho is instead cautious and believes a weakening of only 3% is possible, as the authorities, in recent months, have always indicated that they want to protect the currency. In any case, "China can play hardball with the United States on retaliation", says Aroop Chatterjee, strategist at Wells Fargo. "A currency move directly addresses any loss of competitiveness".
La Taiwan Stock Exchange, mostly made up of tech stocks, slipped as much as 9,8%, the highest ever, as Trump's skyrocketing tariffs threaten the supply chains that much of the world's business has come to rely on. Taiwan will not seek retaliatory tariffs against Donald Trump's 32% tariffs and will work to remove trade barriers with the U.S. In a video message, President William Lai listed five measures, including establishing a negotiating team and buying more American goods to reduce the trade imbalance, amid public fears about the potential economic fallout from Washington's crackdown. Lai acknowledged the "significant impact" of the tycoon's move on the economy, but urged investors not to panic given Taiwan's "strong economic fundamentals." Meanwhile, the Tatung Taipei-based Co., which makes electronic and industrial equipment as well as household appliances, said it plans to strengthen its presence in the United States by acquiring American manufacturers of heavy electrical equipment. This comes shortly after Taiwan announced $2,7 billion in support for its companies to cope with the impact of new U.S. tariffs.
The stock index of India has fallen as much as 5,1%, the highest since early June. Markets are closed for holidays in Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam. Tokyo's Nikkei index is down 6,8%, its lowest since September 2023. The dollar-yen cross is at 146,4, the exchange rate at levels not seen since October. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will travel to the United States as soon as possible to discuss the sensitive issue of tariffs, in an effort to cushion the blow to the country's export-heavy economy. "We must make it clear that Japan is not doing anything unfair," Ishiba told a parliamentary session, calling Trump's imposition of 24% tariffs, particularly on the nation's key auto sector, "extremely unfortunate."
European stock markets: another collapse. At Piazza Affari to watch: Italgas and Ferrari
European stock markets are seen opening with another sharp decline, as the Eurostoxx futures down -3,5% indicate.
Germany. German industrial production fell more than expected in February 2025. According to the German statistical office Destatis, industrial production showed a monthly decrease of 1,3%, after +2% in January. Analysts' estimates were for a decrease of 0,9%. The trade surplus is increasing: in February 2025, a surplus, adjusted for calendar effects, of 17,7 billion euros was recorded, compared to the surplus of 16,2 billion in January. The figure is lower than analysts' estimates, which were for a surplus rising to 18,4 billion.
Italgas closed the week with a rise of 0,4%, compared to -10,5% for the Ftse Mib index. This morning, Barclays analysts raised their target price to 7 euros per share.
Banco BPM. At Friday's deadline for subscriptions to the takeover bid launched by Banco Bpm on Anima, the Piazza Meda institution came to hold, considering the share already owned, approximately 90% of the capital.
Campari Mediobanca cuts target price.
Enel. Citi cuts rating to Neutral.
Classic Ferrari for sale. Mediobanca raises target price.
Generali. According to the latest Consob updates on significant shareholdings, as of April 5,266, UniCredit held voting rights on 4,09% of Generali, up from 24% in the previous communication. Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS), a leading governance consultancy, recommended that Generali investors vote to grant CEO Philippe Donnet another mandate at the general meeting on April XNUMX.
nexi. Moody's affirmed the long-term corporate family ratings at 'Ba1' and the probability of default rating at 'Ba1-PD', improving the outlook to 'positive' from 'stable'.
