With the European stock exchanges closed, August 0,3 brought quite a few novelties to the East. Wall Street, on the other hand, rises but cautiously, waiting for new signs of a slowdown in inflation, starting from tomorrow's consumption data, when the Fed's minutes will also be published. The positive fourth session of the US markets should make its effects felt Europe this morning: EuroStoxx index future gains 13%. Paradoxically, optimism is fostered by fears of an economic slowdown that are depressing raw materials, but have also revived stocks. Since its June lows, the world's stock exchange super index, the MSCI World, is up XNUMX%.
China cuts rates
Once again, August XNUMXth brought big changes in terms of market balances. There China, in particular, took the markets by surprise with the discount rate cut to 2,75% (-10 points) and the reverse repo in response to very disappointing economic data: industrial production rose by 3,8% in July, down on June; consumption is bad +2,7% (against a forecast of +5%) while property values (-0.9%) continue to fall. Even more worrying is the data on employment: 19,9% of young people between 16 and 24 are out of work. Yet, comments Craig Erlane of Oanda from Singapore, "no one expected the Bank of China's move, also because the demand for loans is not in difficulty due to high rates, but due to the Covid blockades, the uncertainty of the real estate market and of the global context. This rate cut won't change any of that." Certainly, unlike what happened during the subprime crisis, China will not contribute to fighting a possible recession.
Asian Stock Exchanges
Flat this morning the index of Shanghai, to Hong Kong real estate development companies, soon to be authorized to issue bonds in yuan with state guarantees, are rallying.
The Kospi of Alone it is up 0,3% after the complete rehabilitation of the Samsung heir already convicted of bribes in favor of the former president.
Also the price list of Tokyo. Japanese GDP rose by 2,2% in the second quarter in line with the progressive reopening of post-Covid borders. Meanwhile, a challenge between giants opens in Tokyo. The Elliott fund has declared war on Softbank after the heavy losses it suffered last year.
Wall Street: media battle
Little moved this morning also the futures of Wall Street. Yesterday, the Nasdaq closed up 0,6%, reversing the effect of the collapse of the New York Fed index which had pushed the US stocks lower at the start of the session.
Battlefield on the media front. The activist investor Third Point's Daniel Loeb announced the purchase of1% of Walt Disney (more or less a billion dollars) with the aim of pushing the board to list the subsidiary ESPN (the sports TV) and to buy Hulu. Meanwhile Wal-Mart, pending the accounts, announces an agreement with Paramount: the points accumulated with the shopping will be used to pay for the streaming.
Bonds and currencies
Il Treasury Notes at ten years it is little moved at 2,78%. Exchanges on BTP start from 2,96% yield. Bunds at 0,89%.
THEeuro trades at 1,015. Hungarian forint stabilizes after Standard & Poor's cut Hungary's credit rating. Yesterday the Budapest currency lost 1,6% against the euro.
The drop in oil
The most relevant data is the descent of the Petroleum: oil lost more than 2% on Friday and almost 3% yesterday, this morning it is down again, at 89 dollars a barrel: -0,7%. In addition to the considerations on the weakening of demand, we also think about the markets on the offer. Libya is increasing production and Iran has made it known that yesterday evening it delivered a written response to the draft of an agreement on nuclear activity drawn up by the group of countries engaged in mediation between Washington and Tehran.
Braking did not prevent ad Aramco to achieve the best results ever in the quarter. Net income increased 90% year over year to $48,4 billion, but the dividend remained unchanged at $18,8 billion as the company continues to invest to further expand production.
In the spotlight at Piazza Affari
To follow the pre-election bets in Piazza Affari. In particular, the trend of Tim after the center-right government program made official yesterday also provides for "the strengthening and development of digital infrastructures and the extension of ultra-broadband throughout Italy" and "the defense of strategic national infrastructures".
Live too bpm after the alarm from Fratelli d'Italia on the alleged French assault on managed savings in our house.
