European stock markets start the week at a good pace, driven by technology stocks, in the wake of last Friday's Nasdaq records and thanks to a solid economic recovery, which will be the backdrop for the ECB meeting on Thursday 9 September. In the afternoon investors lacked the compass of Wall Street, closed for Labor Day holiday, but the continental stock markets have nevertheless found a serene course, thanks to the good premise of the Asian stock markets (at their highest levels in weeks) and to the chance of a prolonged accommodative monetary policy in the United States, combined with the rumors of an increase in the economic stimulus in China and Japan.
In this context, Amsterdam leads the rises, closing up by 1,14%, followed by Frankfurt +0,93%, Paris +0,8%, London +0,7%, Madrid +0,18%. Piazza Affari appreciates by 0,76% to 26.263 points, led by Nexi (+2,35%), Leonardo (+2,3%), Poste (+1,84%), Cnh (+1,78%) . And with only five blue chips in modest decline: Buzzi (-0,45%), Tenaris (-0,19%), Terna (-0,18%), Italgas (-0,14%), Enel (-0,09 .105%). The spread between ten-year BTPs and Bunds remains stable at 0,68 basis points, with a rate of +2019% for the Italian bond. Italy is looking at Eurotower's choices without great fears, with economic performance better than expected. For the OECD, Italy will return to 2022 levels by the first half of 5,9, after an estimated growth of 160% this year and a debt/GDP ratio that will reach XNUMX%.
That ratio is set to drop next year, according to Economy Minister Daniele Franco. “This year we expect to record a lower debt-to-GDP ratio than indicated in the stability program and we expect the ratio to fall next year and to converge towards pre-Covid levels by the end of the decade”. Commenting on the OECD assessments, Franco notes that "fiscal policy in the coming years will be increasingly prudent and in the medium term, after the pandemic crisis has passed and when the output gap has closed, we will have to aim for primary surpluses as before of Covid". Franco adds that the private sector, as also recognized by the OECD, does not have a high level of debt and Italy no longer has a net foreign debt position: "Our debt is therefore fully sustainable", but "there is a need for prudence by fiscal policy".
The rise recorded in factory orders in Germany in the morning, which rose above the estimates in July (+3,4%) against an expected drop of 1%, gave initial help to the price lists. However, the confidence of European investors (Sentix) fell from 22,2 to 19,6 points. The ECB will look at the macro data on Thursday, which will also update its forecasts. After the hawks started flying around the Eurotower meeting, the baseline scenario designed by Unicredit analysts says that "that the ECB will announce a moderation of asset purchases in the fourth quarter in a context of solid economic growth, financing conditions more favourable, higher inflation expectations and lower net issuance of government bonds”. Analysts polled by Reuters predict a reduction in purchases of the Pepp program (Pandemic emergency purchase programme) up to 60 billion euros a month from the current 80 billion, followed by a new cut at the beginning of 2022 and the definitive conclusion of the program in March next year.
On the foreign exchange market, the dollar recovered ground after the disappointing US employment report released last Friday. The euro loses about 0,1% and trades around 1,1867. Gold and oil futures are down fractionally. The former loses nearly 0,5% and is worth about $1825,15 an ounce. Brent fell by 0,6%, to 72,16 dollars a barrel. Returning to the shares of Piazza Affari: Leonardo probably benefits from the words of CEO Alessandro Profumo, who last Friday reiterated his intention to bring the American subsidiary Drs onto the market as soon as conditions permit. Poste benefits the fact that Jp Morgan remains optimistic about European insurance companies and puts the Italian company among the 'top picks', together with Generali (+1,24%).
They archive one sitting green hope bank stocks, starting with Mediobanca +1,46%. Unicredit (+1,22%) continues to work on Monte Paschi (+0,18%): the due diligence is proceeding in compliance with the established times and commitments, says the president of Mps Patrizia Grieco.Among the technological Stm +0,86 .2002% was at its highest level since July 0,18. The oil sector was mixed, sensitive to the drop in Brent today after Saudi Arabia, the world's main exporter, cut crude prices for Asia over the weekend. The oil services, Saipem (+0,19%) and Tenaris (-0,53%), are mixed, while Eni gains XNUMX%.
