Le bags and government bonds I'm under pressure as a freezing wind blows monetary tightening around the world by central banks, following yesterday's rate hike ECB by 25 basis points, to try to counter the rise in inflation resulting from the surge in oil prices. Today the data is expected US consumer prices, after the already high PPI yesterday, which could determine whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next Wednesday. In Asia, the US 10-year yield is nearing the key 5% level.
Oil prices rise above $108: trafficking bottlenecks intensify. The Iran-aligned Houthis seize control of the Yemeni port of Mocha.
Increasing attacks along key sea routes in the Middle East are fuelling fears of a prolonged interruption of supplies. Yesterday the Houthi, aligned with Iran, have took control of the Yemeni port of Mocha, posing a further threat to the traffic in the Red Sea, through the Strait of Bab al-Mandab, while the traffic in the Persian Gulf remains restricted through the Strait of Hormuz due to intensifying attacks on oil tankers in the region in recent days. This would force more shipments to divert routes through the Suez Canal and around Africa, creating further logistic problems, extending the time by weeks deliveries and further pushing the prices. The Yemeni attacks attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure have escalated beyond Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, and fueled fears of prolonged disruptions across the region, analysts say. Trump's statements, according to which the war could drag on beyond the midterm elections of November, certainly didn't help.
I oil prices rose this morning, and both major benchmarks are on track to close the week above $100 a barrel for the first time since mid-May. In Asian trading, oil futures Brent rose by 81 cents, or 0,8%, to 108,44 U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 69 cents, or 0,7%, to $103,17 a barrel. Both benchmarks gained more than 6% on Thursday.
In Asia, the yield on the US 10-year note approaches the key 5% threshold. Stock markets are falling sharply.
Bond markets are under pressure worldwide as traders bet that all central banks will have to raise rates to prevent inflation from skyrocketing. In Asia, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note hit a new three-year high of 4,9708%, approaching the key threshold of 5% which could destabilize the stock market and slow the economy. Bond yields Australians swap rates have reached 15-year highs New Zealanders have increased by 22 basis points and even the benchmark yield on government bonds from Japan rose by 9 basis points.
The rise in government bond yields is also impacting stock markets, which are sharply down in Asia. In Japan, the Nikkei is down 2% and South Korea's Kospi is down 1,8%. Chinese blue-chip stocks are down 0,8%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index is down 0,6%.
Wall Street fell yesterday on fears of a Fed tightening. Bond markets were under pressure across the curve. Oracle shined in after-hours trading.
IERI (Yesterday) Wall Street closed lower after the data on producer prices of August and the surge in prices of Petroleum have fueled fears that the Federal Reserve may increase the rates of interest next Wednesday, while the increase in Treasury yields It made stocks less attractive. S & P 500 closed at -0,58%, Nasdaq at -0,65%, Dow at -0,60%. Major chipmakers lost ground, including Nvidia which lost 2,3% and micron Technology 4,7%, weighing on the S&P 500 index. Apple recorded a 3,6% increase the day after the launch of its new iPhone. Shares of Oracle infrastructures they gained ground in negotiations after-hours after the company reported growth in its cloud computing business that exceeded analysts' forecasts.
But the movement was also strong on the bond market across the curve. In the part soon Two-year Treasury yields hit their highest level in two years on expectations that the Fed may raise rates in the next two months. In part long Ten-year Treasury yields rose to their highest level in nearly three years, while 30-year Treasury yields reached their highest level in 19 years, due to debt and deficit problems and persistent inflation. Higher yields are a negative factor for the stock market: they lower valuations and make it more expensive to run a business, as well as having a negative impact on consumer financing. Furthermore, analysts are quite critical of the Trump's promise to spend $1.300 trillion of dollars to give to Americans who vote for him, right in a period of galloping inflation and some say that was one of the reasons why the bond market moved.
Il trade volume On U.S. stock exchanges, volume was relatively high, with 15,1 billion shares traded, compared to an average of 14,9 billion shares in the previous 20 trading sessions. According to the CME FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a 70% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by at least 25 basis points next week, up from the roughly 64% expected in the PPI reading. Today the most important data is expected consumer prices.
European stock markets are expected to open little changed. At the Milan Stock Exchange, attention will be on banks, Avio, and Prysmian.
European stock markets are expected to open slightly higher this morning, based on Eurostoxx 50 futures trading at +0,2%.
AvioThe first half of 2026 ended with double-digit growth in revenue and profits, in line with expectations. Full-year forecasts confirmed.
banksIntesa Sanpaolo's extraordinary shareholders' meeting approved the capital increase for the MPS offer with a large majority.
PrysmianIt approved a capital increase of up to €850 million. The proceeds will be used to partially finance the €3,3 billion acquisition of Atkore.
