A not too noticeable drop in the oil prices to bring the company back to international markets desire to party and to lean towards riskier assets. This morning the Nikkei Japanese jumped nearly 3% and the South Korean Kospi of 5%, so perhaps investors are settling for a oil dropped to around $101 per barrel, despite the expected impact on inflation, consumption, world economies. A reality bath for the markets it could be the press release of the US Federal Reserve tonight, at the end of the monetary policy meeting. The European stock exchanges are expected to open higher.
What will the Fed say tonight about inflation and the economy? All eyes are on the dot plots.
Markets will be tested when the Federal Reserve will make known its monetary policy decision and, equally importantly, its updated projections based on “dot plots”. While policy makers are expected to maintain the fixed interest rates in the range between 3,5% and 3,75%, the key question is whether the surge in global oil prices Petroleum pose a greater threat to inflation or a brake on economic growth, or worse yet, a recipe for the stagflation.
So the focus will be on the “dot plot” and see they will continue to indicate the rate cuts this year and next, or will abandon them altogether. It is assumed that the cuts will remain, but it could be a borderline decision. A reversal of trend restrictive would be a rude awakening for stocks and bonds and could further strengthen the dollar. The Chairman of the Fed, Jerome Powell will explain the decision in his press conference and may reveal if he intends to stay in the council as governor when he leaves the presidency in May.
The Bank of Canada too The Fed will meet later today, and no monetary policy changes are expected. With inflation falling to 1,8% in February and a weak labor market, in normal times a rate cut would likely be discussed. Markets, however, continue to bet on a hike, with a hike already fully priced in by the end of the year.
Oil prices drop more than 2% as Iraq and Türkiye reach agreement to bypass Hormuz
Oil prices fell in Asian trading after Iraq and Kurdish authorities signed an agreement to resume production. exports through the Turkish port of Ceyhan, thus avoiding the Strait of HormuzOn the geopolitical front, Trump has abandoned pressure on allies why they should participate in the war against Iran, after having reproached them for having rejected his appeals: analysts see this non-involvement of the allies as a hope that the conflict does not spread further, improving market sentiment. Trump also repeated his mantra that the conflict would soon end.
Nevertheless, United States and Israel continued their attacks, without any clarity on the end date of the operations. Israel announced that it had Iranian security chief Ali Larijani killed. Trump threatened to extend the attacks on Kharg Island, Iran's main export center, while the Gulf countries continued to suffer attacks by drones sent from Iran.
Brent crude futures fell 2,4% to 100,97 dollars a barrel.
Wall Street closed higher yesterday, led by airline and financial stocks
Wall Street closed higher yesterday, thanks to the gains of some airlines and of other travel stocks and the rebound of the credit sector after previous heavy losses. The S&P 500 closed up 0,25%, the Nasdaq up 0,47%, and the Dow up 0,10%.
Airline and travel company stocks have recovered from losses suffered in recent weeks due to the attack on Iran and soaring energy prices. Delta Airline recorded an increase of more than 6% and American Airlines gained 3,5% after both companies raised their revenue forecasts for the current quarter. United Airlines rose by 3,2%.
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings rose by more than 2% and ExpediaGroup has increased by more than 4%.
The Private Transport App Uber gained 4,2% after announcing theplans to launch robotaxis in 28 cities starting next year, thanks to Nvidia's self-driving software.
The S&P 500 financial sector index recovered 0,5% from sharp losses the previous week, when concerns about the quality of private credit rattled investors. Shares of Blackstone, Apollo Global, and KKR gained between 3 and 5%.
instead Honeywell International fell 1,3% after the industrial company said the conflict in the Middle East could impact its first-quarter revenue.
Eli Lilly fell nearly 6% after brokerage firm HSCB downgraded the drugmaker from “hold” to “reduce.” Futures this morning The S&P 500 rose 0,4% and Nasdaq futures gained 0,5%.
Asia surges, driven by tech stocks. Nvidia shines a spotlight on OpenClaw.
Asian stocks are rising thanks to the drop in crude oil, driven by artificial intelligence stocks: the MSCI Asia Pacific index gains 2%. Kospi of South Korea rose by 5%, driven mainly by chipmakers, considered less exposed to the war in the Middle East. Samsung Electronics + 7%.
In Korea, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 2,9% in February, up from the previous figure and expectations (3%).
In Japan, The Nikkei gained 2,7%. Lo yen strengthened against the dollar, ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision, expected today, and the Bank of Japan tomorrow. Both are expected to keep interest rates unchanged.
In ChinaThe CSI 300 rose 0,2%. The Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0,9%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0,2%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 0,9%. AI-related stocks rose the most. OpenClaw, thanks to the optimistic comments of Nvidia's CEO: Jensen Huang said that OpenClaw is “definitely the next ChatGPT”, describing it as a precursor to a fundamental change, expanding what people can do with this technology. Launched last November, the Austrian programmer Peter Steinberger, OpenClaw is a open source platform and surpasses traditional chatbots. It doesn't just answer questions, but can also complete tasks, make decisions, and take actions with minimal user input. Optimism has spread: MiniMax Group gained 14% in Hong Kong, Knowledge Atlas Technology JSC, known as Zhipu, 11%. Even the cloud service provider UCloud Technology It's rising in Shanghai.
A Hong Kong, the intensification of regulatory controls is shaking up the financial sector, refers BloombergThe Securities and Futures Commission has warned 13 investment banks (responsible for over 70% of listing applications) for non-compliant practices, and some banks have become more reluctant to accept new assignments. The industry climate has shifted from enthusiasm to caution. Last year, Hong Kong ranked as the world's second-largest capital-raising market, after the United States.
Il dollar recorded a slight decrease of 0,1%, the US Treasury securities rose, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year bond falling two basis points to 4,18%. In the commodities sector, the'gold fell 0,1%, settling below $5.000 an ounce.
European stocks opened higher. At the Milan Stock Exchange, eyes were on A2A, Amplifon, and Eni.
European stocks are expected to open higher. The Eurostoxx 50 futures index is up 0,8%.
A2A – Erg. There is no agreement underway for a merger between the two companies. CEO Renato Mazzoncini has stated that A2A's public shareholders, namely the municipal shareholders, do not intend to lower their stake below 51%.
amplifier. S&P affirmed its BB+ rating with a stable outlook following the agreement to acquire GN Hearing. Barclays downgraded the company to Equal Weight from Overweight, cutting its target price to €10 from €16. Jefferies downgraded the company to Hold from Buy, lowering its target price to €8 from €16.
Eni. Eni is accelerating its development of deepwater gas hubs in Indonesia. With the approval of the Gendalo, Gandang, Geng North, and Gehem fields, Eni is ready to supply up to 56,5 million cubic meters per day of gas and 90.000 barrels per day of condensate by 2029.
Italian post. The board of directors approved the reorganization plan to create a new financial hub within BancoPosta, integrating payments and financial services.
BremboToday the Board of Directors is meeting to discuss the financial results.
Acea. An accelerated bookbuilding process is underway for 8,5 million shares, equal to 3,9% of the capital. Suez is selling, which would reduce its stake from just over 23% to 19%.
Rai Way. Rai CEO Gianpaolo Rossi said that any extension of negotiations for the merger between Rai Way and Ei Towers will be communicated when the current memorandum of understanding expires, scheduled for the end of March.
De Nora Industries. The preliminary results for fiscal 2025, announced to the market about a month ago, were confirmed: revenues of €875 million (+4,4% at constant exchange rates) and adjusted EBITDA of €171,8 million (+9,1%). For 2026, the guidance was reiterated: revenues expected to be in the range of €750-850 million.
