“The latest economic data is stronger than expected. It is therefore probable that in the end the rate hike will be higher than already anticipated”. As Jerome Powell speaking to Congress, he froze the optimism of the markets: the recession is not scary, inflation scares more and more.
The slowdown in price lists yesterday was immediate, albeit composed. This morning the stock market of Europe it should open sharply down: futures on the EuroStoxx50 index -0,7%, those on the Dax -0.9%.
Incoming data onGerman industry. Data on German retail sales and industrial production will be released this morning.
to 11 Christine Lagarde speaks at an event in Geneva. It will be the last public intervention before the ECB meeting on Thursday 16.
La European Commission will publish today the budget guidelines that the member countries will have to follow pending the entry into force of the awaited reform of the Stability Pact.
Blackrock, European stock exchanges better than the USA
Powell's words dampened stock markets. BlackRock takes care of promoting the European lists over the US stock exchanges. The deputy head of the savings giant, Helen Jewell, said that the excellent start of the year of the Paris, Milan and Frankfurt lists has only marginally reduced the discount compared to Nasdaq and S&P500. Jewell explained that positive messages have arrived from the quarterly reports from many sectors, not from the usual suspects, namely, banks and oil.
Btp Italia rises to 6,57 billion
Orders for the new 5-year Btp Italia reached 6,57 billion euros in the first two days of the retail offer. Requests for 2,93 billion euros were registered yesterday. The medium-long bonds moved little: the ten-year BTP closed at 4,51%, the bund at 2,69%.
THEeuro-dollar it lost 1,3% yesterday, this morning the descent continues, the cross is close to the medium-term lows at 1,053.
US rates towards 6%. Expected +0,50% in the next meeting
The futures of Wall Street they are little moved. The S&P500 closed down 1,5% yesterday. The Dow Jones interrupted the positive streak by closing at -1,7%. NASDAQ -1,2%.
Rick Rieder, head of fixed income at BlackRock, commenting on Powell's intervention, predicted that the central bank will raise rates up to 6% and will keep them at these levels “for a long time”.
Ken Griffin, the manager of Citadel, is skeptical: the Fed's moves, he says, will have only a limited effect on inflation. Meanwhile, the gap between the two years widens to 103 points, rising to 5,07% (the highest since 2007) and long-term stocks: it hasn't happened since 1981.
The Asian squares are losing blows. Tokyo is the exception
Also down Asian squares. Yesterday the new Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang began by launching a harsh attack on the US. The CSI 300 of the Shanghai Shenzen lists lost 0,7%, the Hang Seng of Hong Kong 2,5%, the Kospi of Seoul 1,3%. He opened the India stock exchange around parity.
Lo yuan it weakened for the third consecutive day, to 6,97 on the dollar. UBS signaled tonight in a note from its chief economist Wang Tao, that the exit from the lockdown season has not been accompanied by an increase in imports.
THEexception is Tokyo: The Nikkei gains 0,3% on the day of the release of trade balance data: in January the deficit reached a new all-time high at -3.180 billion yen, above consensus expectations.
Bounce the gas. Descalzi: 2024/25 will be tough
Il WTI oil it closed down 3,5%, this morning it moved little at 77,5 dollars a barrel. Russia is selling the oil in Asia that it previously destined for Europe, production has remained high in recent months, the OPEC+ secretary general said yesterday during an event.
European Natural Gas rebounded by +3% closing at 43,3 euro/mWh, -44% since the beginning of the year. Eni's CEO, Claudio Descalzi, said the natural gas market will be "more difficult" for Europe from this winter to 2025 due to the lack of supplies from Russia. “Next year, and also 2025, will be more difficult because last year, through July, we relied on about 80% of Russian gas,” he said at the Ceraweek conference in Houston.
Tim, the network decides on Friday. In red the Fincantieri accounts
Su Tim, the game on the sale of the network, will be decided on Friday, in the meeting of the related parties committee. The KKR fund would be in favor of a one-off offer. Vivendi, the first partner, remains at the window.
Fincantieri closes the fourth quarter with results below expectations on almost all metrics, only debt slightly better than expectations. The indications for 2023 are also disappointing. The company closed 2022 with a group loss of 324 million.
Terna. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said she would like to see a woman at the helm of one of the main publicly controlled companies. The newspapers talk about the possibility that the new managing director of the electricity grid company could be Lucia Morselli, now at the helm of Acciaierie d'Italia.
