Warren Buffett hasn't lost his magic touch. A month ago, at the age of 92, he went to Tokyo both to visit the trading houses where he decided to double the investments already made (with great profit) and to explain in a rare interview with the Nikkei Times why, after a long hibernation, the Japanese economy was back on the launch pad. And the facts are once again proving him right. The Bags today May 17th they start from a Nikkei index +0,7% has risen above 30 thousand points, the highest since September 2021. The Topix, the other index, travels on the highs since 1990 at +12,8% since the beginning of the year, the era of the boom before the great deflation. What is the reason for the rally? Bloomberg Intelligence economist Taro Kimura explains that the result is due to theincrease in consumption, up 0,6%, first effect ofwage increase, the highest since 1993, granted by contracts with the full support of Prime Minister Kishida who on Monday invited the new governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, to favor the turnaround.
US debt cleared, European futures in the red
Tokyo's recovery illuminates a gray global picture, dominated by general uncertainty in the expectation that the knot of the new ceiling on the US federal budget deficit will be unraveled. The latest from Washington say that an agreement could be reached shortly. The active confirmation of President Biden's decision to abandon the trip to Australia to be present at the White House over the weekend to ratify the long-awaited agreement.
- The possibility of an agreement gives a boost to the price lists. US stock futures are in positive territory this morning, after a mixed session.
- Conversely, the European stock exchanges open lower: Ftse Mib - 0,43%, confirming the future of the EuroStoxx50 index negative by 0,2%.
- Yesterday the Ftse Mib in Milan closed down by 0,2%.
Ubs: between legal fees and write-downs 17 billion for Credit Suisse
- UBS estimates the negative impact of theacquisition of Crédit Suisse. In particular, 13 billion will go up in smoke with budget corrections and devaluations. In addition, the institute calculates the greatest impact of legal costs at 4 billion dollars.
- surprisingly worseZew index on economic expectations in Germany at -10,7 points in May, down sharply from 4,1 points in April.
- 2,35-year Bund 4,21%, BTP at 4%. Yesterday the hawks of the ECB sounded the charge: "the ECB should bring rates above XNUMX% to fight inflation" said the governor of the Austrian central bank, Robert Holzmann, in an interview with Econostream taken up by Bloomberg.
Elon Musk: Soros is the comic book villain
- Returning to the USA, on Tuesday the Nasdaq recorded a loss of 0,2%, the S&P500 of 0.6%. The negative forecasts of Home Depot, the largest home improvement retailer. “Americans are back to traveling – comments a financial analyst from Kace Capital on Reuters – and to going out at night. But they postpone home investments because they don't trust them".
- Sam Altman, head of OpenAI and father of ChatGPT, has proposed creating a new government agency to award licenses for the development of large artificial intelligence models, with the power to revoke them if those models do not meet the standards set by the political power.
- Elon Musk takes the field against George Soros which in recent days has decided to sell all the Tesla shares held by its fund. “Soros reminds me of Magneto,” Musk tweeted comparing the philanthropist to Marvel's anti-hero fighting to help mutants replace humans as the dominant species.
Chinese markets are in the red, Seoul prepares to cut rates
Apart from Japan, the markets of the East do not shine.
- Le bags of China down: CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen lists -0,3%, Hang Seng of Hong Kong -0,4%.
- The Kospi of Seoul rises, +0,5%. Nomura writes in a recent note that the central bank of South Korea, despite having also recently ruled out the possibility of a change in monetary policy, could cut rates as early as August.
Of note on the macro front:
- Gold lost ground, closing down 1,3% at $1.991 an ounce.
- Little moved WTI oil fell about half a dollar compared to yesterday.
- European Natural Gas fell again, reaching the new low since December 31,50 at 2021 euro/mWh, -57% since the beginning of the year. The graphic target is on pre-conflict levels around 17/20 euros.
- copper slipped to a five-month low at 8.121 dollars a ton against 9.500 dollars at the start of the year. The lack of liveliness of the Chinese manufacturing sector weighs heavily.
Banks target extra profits (also in France)
Salt there pressure on bank profits. Le Monde reports that France is considering asking banks to pay a 2,5 billion euro tax.
In the first quarter of 2023, calculates the Uilca research office, the top nine Italian banks made 5,35 billion in profits, +182% on the previous year thanks to interest margins that rose by 55%, to almost two thirds of revenues totals. The US bank Citi, entitled "May the force (of interest rates) be with you" in a note on the accounts of Italian banks, in which it says it is optimistic about 2023 thanks to the rate gap and despite the fact that it estimates "a retrocession of interest to depositors in the order of 30-40% in the year”:
Unipol Sai Generali. The insurance companies present in the flooded regions of Central Italy could be called upon to pay significant compensation.
stellantis. THE car registrations in Europe in April they recorded significant growth with solid increases in all major countries. Italy is one of the countries with the highest registration growth rate (+29,2%). Double-digit increase also for France (+21,9%), while in Germany registrations grew by 12,6%.
Stellantis group saw registrations up 8,2% with market share at 17,5%
Canada's Industry Minister is optimistic that he can reach an agreement with the group on subsidies for the construction of a battery plant in Windsor, Ontario, provided that the provincial government also offers its support.
Tenaris has been awarded a contract by Neptune Energy to supply OTCG pipes and services for its drilling projects on the Norwegian continental shelf.
Dovalue announced this morning that an arbitration in Spain had a favorable outcome.
