Volatile climate in September, even in the last session: European stock markets closed down, after having attempted the purchase route in the final stages, followed by Wall Street, positive and once again confident in the aid plan for households and businesses in the United States.
Piazza Affari loses 0,24% and drops to 19.015 basis points, although oil companies and some banks raise their heads. On a similar wavelength they are Frankfurt -0,5%; Paris -0,59%; Madrid +0,05%; London -0,47%.
In the US, on the other hand, worries about the presidential elections, after the chaotic Trump-Biden face-to-face, leave room for the hope that Democrats and Republicans will find an agreement on the aid plan, giving some sprint back to the markets. US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin says he will speak to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and is "optimistic" about a solution. The goal is a "reasonable compromise" after the Democrats presented a 2.200 trillion dollar project on which they intend to vote this week.
This is overshadowing the final second quarter GDP reading, the worst since the end of the Second World War, with a drop of 31,4% (estimates and second reading at -31,7%). An upward push then comes from other macro data: employment in the private sector is growing, with 749.000 jobs created in September against 600 expected; the Chicago PMI rises to 62,4 points in September and is the best figure since December 2018.
In this context, the euro-dollar is little moved and trades around 1,173. On the other hand, oil revived, also thanks to a drop in US weekly inventories higher than expected: Brent +0,67%, 41,84 dollars a barrel; Wti +1,17%, $39,75.
We need to weigh the intervention of the president of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde who, in the wake of the Fed, opens up to a possible, important, change of strategy on inflation. The wording of the ECB's inflation target, stated in 2003 as 'below but close to 2%' "was appropriate for a time when the ECB was trying to assert its credibility and too high inflation was the main concern,” says Lagarde. But "in the current situation of low inflation, concerns are different and this must be reflected in our inflation target".
On the Italian secondary the spread slightly improves, to 138 basis points (-0,45%) and the yield of the ten-year BTP falls to +0,86%, while the first figures of the next budget maneuver begin to circulate: 40 billion between margins of deficit and advance of Recovery Plan funds, which should lead to a 6% rebound in GDP.
Going back to the Milanese share: today's best blue chip is Saipem, +4,93%, which seems to be a magic ball this week, due to the ups and downs it has achieved. Tenaris also performed well +3,15% (lagging behind Eni +0,35%). The stocks could be affected by speculation linked to the declarations of the Minister for Economic Development, Patuanelli, who spoke of investments in hydrogen for 3 billion in the Adriatic Sea and "oil services could play an important role in creating storage platforms", he observes a trader polled by Reuters.
Some bank stocks are also making a comeback. In particular Banco Bpm, +3,92%.
Bper was also very positive, +195%, at the end of a two-sided session, first down and then up. The Modenese bank has announced the terms of the capital increase of approximately 800 million intended to finance the purchase of the business unit in the Intesa (-0,24%)-Ubi operation, with a discount on the Terp of 30,97, XNUMX%.
At the bottom of the list is Banca Generali, -4,35%, which pays the penalty of disappointment for Mediobanca's lack of interest (+0,18%). According to what was reported by Bloomberg yesterday, the Piazzetta Cuccia institute would have evaluated the acquisition of Banca Generali in recent months, only to then shelve the project due to unfavorable conditions for an offer.
Profit-taking sends Amplifon into the red, -2,64%, after recent gains. Letter also for Recordati -1,99% and Snam -2,05%.
Among the stocks that remain at the center of attention, Atlantia loses 1,32%, after yesterday the board of directors confirmed its willingness to negotiate the transfer of control of Aspi to Cdp but with a market operation, also deeming unacceptable , in this context, the conditions imposed by the counterparty, including guarantees and indemnities.
Outside the main basket Massimo Zanetti soars, +29,17%, after the announcement of a voluntary takeover bid aimed at the delisting by the parent company.
