THEindex of fear, the Vix, in flight at an altitude of 28 (+73 per cent since the beginning of the year) dyes the price lists deep red, starting from Business Square which arrives in the early afternoon, close to the first vote for the Quirinale, with a sad record: all the forty blue chips of the Milanese square advance without exception in negative territory. To make matters worse, then, they arrive directions from Wall Street: the futures of the Dow Jones (-0,29%) and the S&P (-0,43%) suggest that, after the worst week in recent years, the US markets are not ready for a rebound. Indeed, the indications in the pre-opening of the Nasdaq (-1,3%) report new alarms: the stock Tesla, which will give the results on Wednesday, trades with a fall of 3%, even worse are the shares Pharma, Moderna and the giant Pfizer down by 3,5%.
The three thorns that sink the bags
Several factors contribute to what the session should be conditioned: the tensions with Moscow on the Ukrainian front, first of all. The risk of a conflict rises, as does the fear that the next sanctions could include the suspension of Russia from the Swift payment system, which in practice would make trade, gas and oil in the lead, almost impossible: the ruble falls by 2% the credit default swap, which measures Russia's default risk, soars.
Equally heavy is the mortgage on the next market Fed meeting, even if the slowdown in the economy makes action on rates less urgent. What is the point, many ask, on the other hand, of an increase in the cost of money if inflation derives from supply problems? This explains why this time the decline in equities does not go hand in hand with the increase in bond yields. The 1,71-Year Treasury Note trades at XNUMX%, around Friday's level.
Finally, this morning's data show that in January the recovery of the economy in the euro area slowed down further, with the new restrictions imposed to contain the Omicron variant of the coronavirus which once again penalized activity, especially in services, which fell from 51,1 to 51,3, to its lowest level in nine months. “Omicron's surge led to another sharp slump in consumer services spending earlier in the year, with the tourism, travel and leisure sectors particularly hard hit,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.
The Milan Stock Exchange
In this context, the fall of the titles of the Agnelli stable is impressive, starting from stellantis which leaves more than 5% in the field, followed by Cnh -5,16% and from Exor (-4,85%). Even the descent of stm -4,8% suggests a new wave of sales on tech, Financials hold better (Understanding -1,7%) and oil companies. Eni -2,3% also announced that it is planning the listing of the joint venture Vår Energi of which it has 70% on the Oslo Stock Exchange. Sources familiar with the project had previously estimated a valuation of between $10 and $15 billion for Vår Energi, making it one of the largest freshmen in the history of the Oslo Stock Exchange.
Enel yields just over 3% but the detachment of the advance coupon must be taken into account. The measures introduced by the government to combat high bills concern only one class of plants, those that receive incentives not linked to the market price of electricity and overall affect Enel little.
Fly Vodafone
In the midst of so much misfortune, the Briton shines, a rare gem Vodafone +5,77% in the wake of the possible agreement in Italy with Iliad and the prospect of similar agreements in Spain. "It happens like with buses: you wait at the stop for an eternity, then two arrive at the same time". Thus, with British humor, the manager James Ratzer of New Street Research commented in a note to customers on the news that has reawakened interest in European telecommunications, already the Cinderella of the stock exchanges in 2021. Telecom Italia loses, but less than the index - 1,8%. The birth of a competitor, Iliad plus Vodafone, with just over a third of the share of the Italian furniture market with 66 billion euros in revenues, is a new challenge for the new CEO Pietro Labriola, who is already working to respond to the proposal from acquisition by the US fund Kkr.
