The financial week in Asia starts on the rise, mainly on the wave of gains in US stocks (more than 2% in the last five sessions) and easing tones used by Trump in Davos on the recovery of the dollar and on trade agreements. Thus the euro held back, traded at 1,2393, down slightly from 1,25 on Friday.
All the Stock Exchanges thus opened this morning with a plus sign. Hong Kong rises (+0,5%), driven by the securities of Chinese banks (+3,7% the giant ICBC). The exception is Wynn Macau (-6,3%): the Wall Street Journal reports the allegations against the owner, the billionaire Stephen Wynn, for sexual harassment.
Shanghai and Tokyo also rose (+0,4%), thanks to the recovery of the dollar against the yen. Record prices on the Korean Kospi and in Sydney.
Oil on highs above $70: Brent at 70,50, Wti at 66,38.
MAXI THEFT ON CRYPTOCURRENCIES: 538 MILLION DOLLARS DISAPPEARED
Big hit by the usual unknowns on cryptocurrencies: on Friday the Coincheck platform in Tokyo reported a theft of 58 billion yen (538 million dollars) of virtual coins. Under pressure from the authorities, the broker announced this morning that it will refund 90% of losses to the public.
Fresh back from Davos, after having given combative advice to Theresa May (“in her place I would be much tougher on the European Union”) Donald Trump is ready to dive back into the fray at home. Tomorrow the US president will deliver his first speech on the state of the Union, one year after entering the White House.
Wall Street, according to the experts interviewed by Reuters, could take the opportunity to take some profits in view of the corporate accounts of the week and the Fed meeting. But the euphoria, fueled by the President, remains at an all-time high: "Go and look the data on the highest employment of African Americans ever,” Trump tweeted in response to criticism from rapper Jay Z.
YELLEN SAYS GOODBYE TO THE FED, T-BOND RATES UP
The markets prepare for the farewell of Janet Yellen, who she will be replaced on Friday by Jerome Powell at the head of the Fed. It is obvious that in the last meeting led by the president there will be no news on rates. But the atmosphere is already heating up in view of the debut of Powell, in office from next February 3: will his calling card be a first rate hike? Or will the party that believes that the 2% inflation target (now within reach) as a point of reference for the increase in the cost of money has been exceeded will gain weight? Meanwhile, the rise in yields on the t-Bond continues this morning, rising to 2,69%.
THE ACCOUNTS OF THE BIG TECHNOLOGIES ARE HERE
The week's data will help address the question. On the macro front, the markets are looking at the labor numbers, due out on Friday (estimated 178.000 new jobs). The trend in wages deserves particular attention.
Even more important, of course, is the data from Corporate America. The quarterly reports of 120 companies in the S&P 500 index will be released this week. Among these are the big names in technology: Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Facebook and Microsoft.
Eyes turned to macro data in the eurozone as well. GDP growth in the fourth quarter will be announced on Tuesday: an increase of 0,6% is expected for the period. The total for 2017 will be 2,6%.
The ministers of the 28 countries of the Eurozone will meet today to approve the conditions to be presented in London for the start-up phase of Brexit (no more than 21 months as requested by France and Germany).
BANKS, THE CONCLUSIONS OF THE INVESTIGATION ARRIVE
On the domestic front, the banking theme remains at the center of the economic scene again this week. The bicameral commission of inquiry will close the report on the work of these months on Tuesday. In all likelihood, there will not be a shared text: it is therefore possible that the final document may incorporate only the broad points on which the various political forces converge, starting with the establishment of a national prosecutor's office for economic-financial crimes and the closer collaboration between Consob and Bank of Italy.
Meanwhile, Intesa reacted with "bewilderment" to the news of a possible judicial involvement in civil liability for the crimes of obstruction of supervision and market manipulation of which the former managers and statutory auditors of Veneto Banca, an institution in compulsory liquidation, are accused.
6,5 BILLION BOTS ARE COMING, STOCK MARKET +9% IN 2018
The auction of the six-monthly Bots is scheduled today for the amount of 6,5 billion, identical to the quantity due to expire. Tomorrow will be the turn of medium-long term bonds.
The FtseMib index closed Friday at the highest levels in the last three years, with a cumulative gain of 9% which, taking into account the exchange rate effect, clearly detaches the performance of the other indices with the exception of the Brazilian Bovespa (+13% ). In third place is the Chinese CIS +8,7%.
PERFUME RECIPE FOR EX FINMECCANICA'S HELICOPTERS
On the corporate front, Cattolica Assicurazioni's 2018-20 business plan stands out today. The company, in which Berkshire Hathaway is the main shareholder, is among the most popular stocks on the Stock Exchange: in the last month the increase was 17,61%, +6% in the last 43.91 months.
Today Luxottica announces the trading update as of December 31, 2017.
The most important corporate appointment of the week concerns Leonardo's industrial plan, which will be presented tomorrow in Vergiate, the cradle of the group's helicopters. Observers are awaiting indications especially with regard to the helicopter area, i.e. the one that caused the decline in the balance sheet data for the first nine months of 2017.
