The European financial week opens well, supported by the improvement of economic forecasts of the EU Commission and from the matched start of Wall Street. In the USA, the climate appears optimistic on the eve of the publication of data on consumer prices, which could allow the markets to celebrate Valentine's Day if inflation proves to be slowing further. He flies between the stars and stripes titles Microsoft, +3,74%, which last week reached the market value of 2.000 billion dollars, thanks to the integration of artificial intelligence on Bing and Edge.
Milan is positive, while the center-right is making a breakthrough in Lazio and Lombardy
Square Business closes today's session with an increase of 0,63% to 27.438 basis points, while with the polls closed it seems that the centre-right has swept the board in Lombardy and Lazio, even if abstention has reached worrying levels.
In the rest of Europe they are tonic Amsterdam + 1,39% Paris +1,11% and Madrid +1,03% and slightly lower Frankfurt +0,59% and London +0,8%. The brightening comes after a negative eighth, the first out of three for the Eurostoxx, even if the Ftse MIb stood out from the ranks with a gain of 1,2%.
On the foreign exchange market theeuro is in recovery on dollar, after deflating slightly in the final days of last week. The cross is currently over 1,071.
In energy the Petroleum trade was weak, with Brent crude down 0,73% to $85,76 a barrel and Texan crude down 0,56% to $79,27 a barrel.
Prices cool down further gas natural: -4,3%, below 52 euros per Mwh.
For the EU Commission, the picture is improving
Also thanks to the drop in gas prices, the economic situation in the European Union appears better than feared and the EU Commission has raised its estimates on the growth 2023, lowering those for inflation. The dreaded recession seems dodged.
“Domestic demand could turn out to be higher than forecasts if the recent falls in wholesale gas prices are transmitted more strongly to consumer prices and if consumption proves more resilient,” argues Brussels.
Of course the war in Ukraine keeps the uncertainty high, but foreign demand could prove more robust after the Chinese reopenings and the end of the zero Covid policy.
In percentage terms, the increase in GDP in 2023 should be 0,9% for the euro area and 0,8% in the EU, compared to +0,6% and +0,5% previously expected. In 2024 +1% in Euroland and +1,6% in the EU.
The price run is expected to ease to 5,6% in 2023 for the eurozone (6,4% in the EU) and 2,5% in 2024 (2,8% in the EU). In the previous autumn economic forecasts, inflation was expected at 6,1% in the euro area (7% in the EU) in 2023 and 2,6% in 2024 (3% in the EU).
'SItaly things are a little worse: GDP is expected to grow by 0,8% this year and 1% next year. Inflation at 6,1% in 2023 and 2,6% in 2024.
Piazza Affari, mixed banks and volatile Telecom
In today's session, many industrial stocks did well, there were insights into asset management, banks performed in no particular order, while Telecom he struggled to find the route. The closure sees Iveco, +4,63%, again in the pink jersey, also supported by the Buy of Equita. Progress is robust for Amplifon + 3,87% Interpump + 2,68% Pirelli +1,86%, the latter aided by Intermonte's “outperform” recommendation ahead of the results to be released next week.
They stand out in asset management General Bank +2,2% and Finecobank +2,25%. It stands out among the banks Bper +2,15%, while Unicredit it is the worst -0,33%, largely due to profit taking after earnings following results. Some commentators point out that the presence of some banks in Russia weighs on the sector, after the Moscow plan which provides for the cancellation of debt for those killed or maimed in war, a prospect which induces institutions to accelerate their farewell to the country.
The session closes in deep red for Saipem, -5,7%, after the race that has characterized these months. According to the operators, it is probable that some still present in the shareholding after the capital increase, is lightening the position in the light of the stock's rally.
Letter for nexi -3,26% and for utilities starting from Ivy -1,18%.
Telecom Italy, which tomorrow will keep the board on the accounts, closed flat a volatile session, impatient for news on the network. According to Il Sole 24 Ore on Saturday, the Treasury is considering investing up to 2 billion euros to purchase 20% of the infrastructure, maintaining a guiding role after the possible listing of Netco.
Spreads down
Bonds also closed in green: lo spread between 172-year BTPs and Bunds with the same duration, it falls to 2,02 basis points (-4,06%), with yields slightly down to 4,08% (from 2,34%) for the Italian security and slightly up to 2,33. XNUMX% (up from XNUMX%) for the German stock.
The Bund's run on the two-year short term ends at the end, seen on Friday when the rate went up to 2,75%, the highest since 2008, in a movement similar to US government bonds due to the expected new cost increases of money from the Fed and the ECB.
