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Cautious stock exchanges waiting for the ECB: Telecom is heavy in Piazza Affari, Banco Popolare shines

The markets are eyeing the board meetings of the ECB and the BoE – Awaiting data on US GDP and unemployment – ​​Telecom slides in Milan after the aut-aut of the Brazilian Antitrust: “Venda Tim Brasil or Telefonica bait Telco” – Banco Popolare flies on rumors of non-performing loan transfers - The banking sector does well, but MPS continues to fall - Fiat is in the red.

Cautious stock exchanges waiting for the ECB: Telecom is heavy in Piazza Affari, Banco Popolare shines

European stock exchanges moved little in the morning. Milan drops 0,16%, while Paris, Frankfurt e London remain practically unchanged. The spread Btp-Bund is stable at 234 basis points, while the euro it is up against the dollar at 1,36.

The markets look to meetings of the boards of the ECB and the BoE. Analysts are not waiting for news on the monetary policy front, therefore the focus is on growth and inflation estimates. An upward revision of the 2013 GDP estimates for the United Kingdom is envisaged, while on the Eurozone front we are looking at the 2014 and 2015 inflation projections in terms of future interest rates.

Then there is waiting for some important macro data from the US (GDP and unemployment). Yesterday evening, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book showed that the US economy is improving growth "from a modest to moderate pace". 

It weighs on Piazza Affari Telecom Italy (-2,41%), the worst stock on the list. The Tlc group discounts the news coming from South America: the Brazilian Antitrust (Cade) has resolved that Telefonica must exit its direct and indirect stakes in Tim Participações (Tim Brasil) or sell Vivo (the first Brazilian mobile operator controlled by Telefonica Brasil). The Authority explained that Telefonica's decision to grow in the capital of Telecom Italia, which controls Tim Brasil, has opened up serious competition problems. 

“Telecom Italia sells Tim Brasil or Telefonica bails out of Telecom Italia”: this is the either-or launched by the president of Cade, Vinicius Marques de Carvalho, in a statement quoted by the Wall Street Journal. Marco Fossati, shareholder through Findim of the Italian telephone company with a 5% stake, spoke out against "the forced sale of Tim Brasil, considered strategic by Telecom's management itself". Fossati asked for "immediate and decisive intervention by the Italian supervisory authorities" to recognize Telco's de facto control over Telecom.

Of a completely different sign the day of Banco Popolare, which in the same minutes gains more than two and a half percentage points and leads the rises of the Ftse Mib. To trigger the wave of purchases were the indiscretions on the possible sale of a substantial package of non-performing loans. According to Mf, there is already talk of an operator in pole position (Primus Partners) and the operation could take place in the first half of 2014. The credits covered by the maxi transfer are worth around four billion and are contained in the bad bank Release, born on the ashes of Italease is also owned by Popolare Emilia, Popolare Sondrio and Popolare Milano.

Several other stocks in the banking sector also did well: Pop Milan + 1,13% Unicredit + 0,5% Mediobanca + 0,75% Ubi + 0,68%. Intesa Sanpaolo on the other hand, it loses half a point, while the decline of Ps (-2,19%), with all investors' eyes focused on the fate of the reference package in the hands of the Sienese Foundation.

As for insurance, this morning Moody's released a report in which it underlines that the prospects for the Italian market remain negative in the life sector, because the low savings rate and the high unemployment rate will limit sales and profitability. As regards the Italian insurance sector as a whole - adds Moody's - Italian insurance companies present a significant risk of concentration in sovereign bonds and the quality of their assets depends, to a large extent, on the quality of Italian sovereign credit.  

The judgments of the American agency do not particularly weigh on the performance of insurance stocks in Piazza Affari. At the end of the morning, Generali yields 0,6%, but Fondiaria Sai gains 1,64%, while Unipol travels up by 0,5% and Milano Assicurazioni by 1,2%. 

Among the industrialists it rises Saipem (+0,63%): Seadrill said it was ready for acquisitions, fueling rumors that it would be interested in the assets of the Eni group company. Ransom Rest (+1,27%), while the rebound by seems to have lasted only one day Fiat (-1,6%) and of Diasorin (-1,37%). Among the utilities, Enel earns 0,45% and A2a drops by 0,44%. 

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