Le European stock exchanges they open with the handbrake on, following the trail of Wall Street, where the S&P 500 recorded its fifth consecutive day of decline. Milan remains around parity, always above the psychological threshold of 43.000 points;Frankfurt (-0,23%), Paris (-0,07%), Amsterdam (-0,13%) And London (-0,21%) record more or less marked drops, while Madrid resists with a timid +0,1%. Investors' gaze remains fixed on Jackson Hole: Jerome Powell today at 16pm Italian time will discuss the future of interest rates. In Asia, however, cautious optimism reigns: Tokyo closes at par, Hong Kong +0,5%, Shanghai and Shenzhen +1%, Seoul +0,8%, Sydney -0,5%.
Meanwhile, the markets are digesting the EU-US agreement on tariffs: 15% on most products, including cars and pharmaceuticals, with steel, aluminum, and wine excluded. In the background, constant geopolitical tensions: from peace negotiations in Ukraine to the Israeli occupation of Gaza City.
German GDP declines, French business confidence stable in August
Among the few macro data of the day, the German GDP In the second quarter of 2025, GDP fell by 0,3% quarter-on-quarter, following a 0,3% increase in the previous three months. The revision, 0,2 percentage points higher than the preliminary estimate of July 30, reflects a more marked slowdown in industrial production than expected. On an annual basis, GDP remains growing: +0,3% in the first quarter of 2025 and +0,2% in the fourth quarter of 2024.
In France, the business confidence index In August, it remained stable at 96, according to INSEE, but with sectoral differences: retail trade worsened, services fell slightly, manufacturing remained unchanged, and construction improved.
Wall Street amid uncertainty and mixed quarterly results
IERI (Yesterday) Wall Street continued the negative streak: Dow Jones -0,34% S&P 500 -0,40% and Nasdaq -0,34%, under pressure from the tech sell-off. Investors appear to be walking a tightrope, awaiting concrete signals from the Federal Reserve. The key meeting is scheduled for today at 16:XNUMX PM Italian time, when Jerome Powell will speak at the annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September is close to 80%, but the minutes of the July meeting The Fed's decisions show just how heated the debate is: Although most members consider it premature to lower rates, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman supported the cut, marking the first Fed decision with two votes against since 1993.
Company accounts have added further shocks: Walmart posted better-than-expected sales but lower profits, falling 4,5% and becoming the worst-performing stock in the Dow, while Paramount Skydance gained nearly 15% thanks to a better-than-expected quarterly report and an unexpected profit in its streaming division, sending the stock up 25% since the beginning of the month.
Nvidia and the chip war with China
I Nvidia chip remain trapped in the technological conflict between the United States and ChinaFollowing the American restrictions, Beijing blocked H20, less powerful chips intended for the Chinese market, reacting to the statements of the US Secretary of Commerce. Howard Lutnick, considered "offensive." Lutnick had explained that China must remain dependent on American technology, selling only fourth-tier chips like the H20 and reserving the most advanced models for the domestic market.
Le Chinese authorities They have urged companies like Alibaba and ByteDance to suspend H20 orders, promoting local alternatives like Huawei and Cambricon. Despite the tensions, Nvidia is not abandoning China: in 2024, the Chinese market generated $17,1 billion, approximately 13% of total revenue. The group is developing a new AI chip, the B30A, with half the power of the Blackwell B300, while adhering to American restrictions and has agreed to pay the US government 15% of its Chinese revenue to obtain export licenses.
Piazza Affari: Mediobanca and MPS show signs of a rebound.
A Business Square attention remains focused on the banking risk. Mediobanca (+0,48%) announced the withdrawal of its offer on General Bank (-0,12%) after shareholders' vote against, thus paving the way for Ps(+0,44%). Second MF-Milan Finance, the Ministry of Economy and Finance, owner of 11,7% of the Sienese bank, will maintain its participation even after the end of the takeover bid for Piazzetta Cuccia, a move interpreted as a political safeguard in view of possible integrations in the emerging third banking hub with Bpm bank(-0,46%). Il Leone di Trieste also showed weakness (-0,12%).
Leonardo (+0,68%) could benefit from a strategic contract in the United States for the supply of at least 145 new trainer aircraft to the US Navy, in collaboration with Textron, consolidating transatlantic industrial cooperation and strengthening NATO interoperability. Saipem (+0,84%) takes advantage of the rise in oil prices, supported by geopolitical tensions and positive data on inventories, while Stellantis (+0,41%) reduces production and orders of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles in the United States, affecting models such as the Jeep Wagoneer S, Dodge Charger Daytona, Jeep Wrangler, Grand Cherokee, and Chrysler Pacifica. The decision, reported by MF, anticipates the drop in demand expected with the expiration of the $7.500 federal tax credit on September 30, an incentive that had previously supported sales of the group's green vehicles.
Among the decreases we can highlight: BRUNELLO CUCINELLI(-0,57%), Finecobank (-0,54%) And Tim (-0,48%). Out of the main basket, Lottomatica aims to enter the FTSE MIB in the quarterly review at the end of September, probably replacing Diasorin or Pirelli, currently among the less heavy stocks in the index.
Lo spread The BTP/Bund spread rises to 86 basis points, with the 10-year BTP yield rising to 3,62%. Positive European PMI data raises expectations of unchanged ECB rates in September.
The other markets
On the currency front, theeuro weakens and falls below $1,16, its lowest level since early August. Bitcoin continues to run above 113 thousand dollars (+0,5%), while the remains stable at $3.336 an ounce.
Futures on the Petroleum show WTI at 63,60 dollars per barrel (+0,13%) and Brent at 67,74 (+0,10%), supported by geopolitical tensions: Netanyahu accelerates the siege on Gaza City recalling up to 60.000 reservists, while in Ukraine Peace remains distant, with Moscow ready to discuss only minimal details for a possible meeting between Putin e Zelensky.
