In the Americas, Donald Trump's powerful and wealthy United States obviously garners all the attention, but moving south, toward the Latin Americas, there are several emerging economies, some large, like Brazil and Mexico, others strategic for their mineral resources, or even for political alliances. And in that part of the continent, 2025 was a very positive year for the stock markets: Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and ChileThe ones we considered all posted double-digit gains. For different reasons: here's why.
São Paulo's iBovespa looks set for a record-breaking 2025: renewed macroeconomic stability plays a decisive role.
In Lula's Brazil, social reforms (raising the threshold of the no-tax area and increasing subsidies against poverty) and the new, more statist course of the energy giant Petrobras have not scared investors at all, on the contrary: the iBovespa index closed a record 2025 thanks to foreign flows, exceeding 160.000 basis points for the first time and gaining over 30% in the calendar year, after a 2024 in which it had instead lost 10%.
Rekindling market confidence is the Portuguese-speaking country's renewed macroeconomic stability: 2024 had been marked by capital flight, but in 2025 the trend reversed, with the São Paulo Stock Exchange receiving 30 billion reais (about $6 billion, as of November) from abroad, more than offsetting the $24 billion lost the previous year. The best-performing stock overall was Cogna, Brazil's largest private education company, which rose 259% (as of Christmas), but the banks also did very well, from Bradesco to Itaù, with double-digit increases. Worthy of note is the performance of Tim Brasil, which had gained 76% by Christmas.
Mexico is doing even better, thanks to its mining giants and infrastructure.
A more than positive year also for the second largest economy in Latin America, Mexico, which is an important indicator of what is happening on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean also due to its proximity to the United States. The two countries are in some ways economically interdependent but very distant politically on issues relating to tariffs, the reshoring of US companies based in Mexico and migrants, even if in recent times Washington's growing intolerance has been expressed more towards Venezuela.
The Mexico City Stock Exchange has also seen a decline in the last 12 months. gained more than 30%, led by stocks such as Grupo Mexico, a mining giant (third largest copper producer in the world) but also a transport and infrastructure giant, which is taking advantage of theexcellent year for raw materials – gold and silver above all, but copper itself gained 40% – saw its shares rise by 76% (data updated to December 26). Banorte bank also performed well (+28%) as did other leading groups in strategic infrastructure and major projects such as Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico and Pinfra. Also regarding Mexico, although in this case listed on the London Stock Exchange, it is worth noting the exploit of another mining giant, Fresnillo, which has gained 416% in the last 12 months.
Even with some hesitation, the honeymoon between Milei's Argentina and the markets continues
2025 was another year of rally for the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange: the Milei effect, which had had a greater impact in 2024, brought another 23%, thanks above all to a surge in the last quarter after a mid-year phase in which it actually seemed that the honeymoon between the fiery Argentine president and the financial markets was coming to an end. This new surge was triggered by the news, made official in November, of a new $20 billion loan coming directly from the United States by virtue of the political closeness between Donald Trump and Javier Milei, who had previously also obtained a discount on the repayment of the mega loan from the International Monetary Fund.
And in any case, investors generally like Milei's unorthodox recipes: proof of this is that the Merval index collapsed following the resounding defeat suffered by the government in the provincial elections in September, only to then rise again after the recovery in the mid-term round in October, in which precisely Thanks to Washington's help, Milei managed to get out of the impasse, despite serious corruption scandals that have since engulfed his entourage, including his sister Karina. Argentina is continuing its anti-inflation treatment, with inflation having been under control for months now, below 3% on a monthly basis, after hitting a record 25,5% in the month the new government took office, December 2023.
And watch out for Chile's new president, José Antonio Kast, a Trumpian and ultra-liberal
Finally, it should be noted that, in the Latin American context, the exploit of the Santiago de Chile Stock Exchange, which in the calendar year has gained over 55%. The Chilean market is certainly not a list of significant size but the rally once again carries with it a clear political message: after the boom in Argentina with Milei, the same is happening in the Andean country, which is strategic for mineral raw materials being among the world's leading producers of copper and lithium, among others.
Well, since the electoral campaign began, which saw the victory of the right-wing extremist José Antonio Kast last December 12th, the stock market began to rise inexorably, reaching a record high of over 52.000 basis points in the final days of December. Unlike his predecessor, Socialist Gabriel Boric, Kast promised, among other things, to become a solid ally of Trump's United States and to fully hand over mining companies to the market and private sector, which the previous government had instead wanted to keep under public control as much as possible to avoid foreign influence. But Kast won, and the markets are once again toasting.
