La Fed turn off in MY BAG the enthusiasm of the Bull (Milan -0,42%) while the yields of two-year treasuries, the most sensitive to interest rate movements, rise to the highest since 2007. The spread between the Italian and German ten-year bonds closes with a final flare up at 228 basis points (+5,19) for a 10-year BTP yield of 4,41%. And the pound, despite a 75 basis point increase in British rates, fell by 2%. Jerome Powell's words swept away the euphoria that had caused the minirally at the end of October. But to find a happy note on the horizon you have to look further, in the price lists of the East. So here's what can happen Stock market today November 4th.
Stock market today 4 November: Chinese price lists rebound in celebration of Scholz's arrival
This morning there Hong Kong Stock Exchange, up 5,7%, is about to end its best week since 2015, with a gain of +9%. There is talk of an imminent rethinking regarding policies to combat the spread of the pandemic, to the full advantage of the CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen price lists: +2,7% (+5,8% the provisional weekly balance). In the week of the big collapses of the big techs on Wall Street lo Hang Seng Tech it rises by over +7%, a movement that brings the weekly increase close to +16%.
A change of course? Not really, as Barclays downgrades China's 2023 GDP forecast to 3,8% from 4,5%. But geopolitics helps to understand the change of mood: the German premier has landed in Beijing Olav Scholz for a highly criticized visit to the West for its intention to give in to China Cosco one third of the port of Hamburg. But the Dragon rejoices: the Xinhua agency reported that Xi expects to be able to work with Germany for world peace. On the plane with Scholz, the first European head of state to arrive in China after the pandemic, are the top managers of the most important German companies (BASF, Volkswagen AG, Deutsche Bank and BioNTech).
The car holds Europe back: BMW raises the alarm
A leap in quality in relations with China could be a solution for tackling the made-in-Germany car crisis, which emerged yesterday with the BMW warnings which ended up infecting the entire European automotive sector, including Stellantis and Pirelli.
It was a gray session for all price lists with the exception of London +0,61%. Despite the increase in the cost of borrowing, the governor of Boe heartened the City: the bank does not intend to go further because it recognizes the risk of a severe recession.
Le European stock exchanges EuroStoxx index futures should open higher by +0,4%.
Wall Street in decline, the crisis in Silicon Valley worsens
Wall Street closed down due to tech sales. Nasdaq-1,7%, the drop in the Dow Jones -0,5% was much less significant. Fourth session down for the S&P500 -1,1%.
New sign of crisis in the tech world: PayPal (the company where Elon Musk's extraordinary career began) has cut its revenue estimates for the last quarter of the year. The title came to lose almost -10%. Meanwhile Amazon -3%, falling to lows since April 2020, announced the hiring freeze. Meta (Facebook) -1,8% updated to lows since 2016, Alphabet (Google) -4% fell to new lows since January 2021,
The spread on Treasuries is tightening, a sign of recession
Il Treasury Notes ten-year yields rose to 4,12% from yesterday's 4,10%. The biennial is at 4,70%. The differential between the two yields, equal to -57 basis points, has never been so low in the last forty years.
Euro dollar at 0,978: the cross is up by 0,3%, the first positive sign ahead of the change, after four consecutive sessions of decline.
La Sao Paulo Stock Exchange of Brazil, which remained closed the day before, finished the session just below parity.
Peak gas at 135 euros. Aie: Don't let your guard down
Petroleum up by +2%, Brent at 96,30 dollars. Expectations of an acceleration of the Chinese economy, in case of setting a new management policy on the pandemic, are being felt on the energy markets.
European gas -0,3% to 125 euros, after reaching a peak of 139 euros. The premier Meloni, visiting Brussels, he hoped that measures will be taken as soon as possible at EU level to contain the price. The IEA, the international energy agency, also thinks so: Europe must act immediately to prevent a shortage of natural gas for next year, a scenario that would occur if Russia stopped deliveries through pipelines and if China were to step up its imports of liquefied natural gas.
Piazza Affari relies on quarterly reports. Enel, Leonardo, Tenaris
In the spotlight are the quarterly reports approved on Thursday afternoon.
Enel closed the third quarter with 4,37 billion euros of adjusted Ebitda. The company confirmed the achievement of the 2022 targets in terms of Ebitda (19-19,6 billion), but with a lower contribution from Italy. The indications on the dividend do not change. The new strategic plan will be presented this month.
Tenaris it closed the third quarter with an Ebitda of 946 million dollars, against the 867 million expected by analysts. Profitability was much better than expected, with the Ebitda Margin at 31,8%. The company expects drilling activities to grow further in the coming months, especially in the Middle East, this trend should support the demand for specialty pipes.
Leonardo it closed the quarter with a 9% year-on-year drop in Ebita, at 201 million euros, slightly worse than expected. Better than expected, however, orders and cash flow.
Pirelli beat analysts' expectations in the third quarter, operating profit grew 27% year over year to 272 million euros.
sapphire. In the quarter, net sales grew by 14,9% (+4,6% at constant exchange rates, +5,6% organic growth) to 260,4 million euros.
Dovalue finalized the sale of a 450 million euro Npl portfolio on the secondary market
