“The worst is yet to come,” says the chief economist of the IMF Pierre Olivier Gourinchas, underlining the risk of recession throughout 2023. The financial markets, on the eve of the new inflation data, seem to think the same way. To accentuate the discontent, then, there were the somewhat surreal statements of the governor of Bank of England. "You have three days to sort things out," she told the pension fund managers. In other words, the balance sheets must be cleaned up by Saturday by trimming the titles now displaced by the increase in inflation to the central bank.
towards adownward opening, spreads at 237 bps
• The alarm of monetary authorities, combined with i signs of recession, caused another black day for the markets, despite the first glimmers of negotiations on the front of the conflict in Ukraine. • European stock exchanges should open slightly lower today, EuroStoxx 50 index futures -0,1% .
• Business Square he lost yesterday 0,87% in line with the other exchanges of the old continent. The International Monetary Fund the offer recession for Germany and Italy for the next year. In 2023, a 0,2% GDP contraction is expected for the Belpaese (expected +0,7% in July), as well as for Germany, which will score -0,3% (against the 0,8% expected in July).
• The spread between 10-year BTPs and Bunds of the same duration rises to 237 basis points (+5,59%), mainly due to the increase in the rate of the Italian bond, +4,68%, against +2,3% of the German title.
Italy: 500 billion bonds to be issued in two years
• Amidst the confusion caused by the British Gilt crisis, worries about the debt of the Bel Paese. "Italy may discover that November will be the cruelest month" headlines a Bloomberg report Marcus Arsworth of Bloomberg in an article that takes stock of our accounts: the Meloni government will have to refinance 245 billion in 2023 and 230 in 2024. Figures that leave "little room for error" and that have already shaken the markets in recent weeks, because the economic deadlines are anticipated by the decidedly imminent political ones: the commentator mentions the choice of "a Minister of Finance acceptable” and the Budget law. Which, as always, will have to pass the exam by the European Commission by the end of the year, but in a "probably more conflictual" context.
Pharma saves the Dow, positive futures
• Sitting nervous on Wall Street waiting for minute on the meeting of fomc (out tonight) and data on consumer prices (tomorrow): the Dow Jones +0,12% closed slightly higher thanks to the boost from the pharma sector. Down for the fourth session in a row S & P 500 -0,65% and Nasdaq -at -1,04% under chip sell-off pressure. Futures are positive this morning.
• The Treasury Notes a ten-year term trades at a 3,92% yield, -2 basis points. In an interview with CNN late yesterday evening, Joe Biden he said that economic recession is possible, but even if it does, it should be very mild. The president's words come the day after the publication of the six-monthly bulletin of the International Monetary Fund in which the US GDP estimate drops to +1%.
• Euro/dollar little moved at 0,971. The US currency, on the other hand, reaches a new high against the yen (146).
La China at six-month lows, Hong Kong for ten years
• No signs of improving the situation of Covid -19 in China, now on the eve of the Congress. this morning theHang Seng of Hong Kong is starting to close down by 2% to 16.500, on the lows of the last ten years. CSI300 -1,4%, minimum in the last six months.
• Tokyo Nikkei on equality. Kospi of Seoul +0,5% after the expected rate hike by the central bank, to 3% from the previous 2,5%. The won appreciates against the dollar to 1.428. In the press release, the Bank of Korea revises forecasts for economic growth for 2023 downwards and confirms inflation estimates. India is up 0,4%.
The crisis weighs on oil, gas slips to 150 euros
• WTI oil down 0,7% to 88,7 dollars a barrel, Brent to 93,78. Weigh the alarm's IMF: “More than a third of the global economy will contract in 2023, while the three largest economies – the US, China and the European Union – will continue to stall. In short, the worst is yet to come and for many 2023 will feel like a recession,” said IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, underlining how Russia's invasion continues to strongly destabilize the global economy.
• The European gas starts again from 156 euros per mWh. Yesterday it dropped to 150 euros and grew to 166 euros. Meanwhile, the EU Commission has reiterated that it is working "at full speed" to find a solution to prices and supplies.
Piazza Affari: Decisive hours for Mps. Managers buy Tim
• Monte Pasch Bankthe. The board of directors has not yet taken a decision on the capital increase that the first shareholder, the MEF, would like to start next Monday, October 17th. The agencies report that the guarantee syndicate banks, as of yesterday evening, they had not yet signed the deed of commitment. The next few hours should be decisive, we will know if there will be other postponements or if the operation will start as communicated. It serves the guarantee signature so that the board of directors can approve the price and timing of the increase. The Tuscan foundations take the field: ready to invest
• Tim falls down for the fifth consecutive day, going to mark the new historic low of 0,1743 euros. Managers take advantage of this for buy shares. On October 10, Adrian Calaza, Chief Financial Officer of TIM, purchased 270 shares of the company at a price of 0,1823 euros per share, for a total outlay of 49.221 euros. A similar quantity had been bought at the end of September by the CEO Pietro Labriola, who had previously already bought 1,5 million shares. The Communications Regulatory Authority (Agcom) has consulted the prices for access to the TIM network paid by alternative operators. In the resolution, it was established to keep prices unchanged for 2022 compared to 2021, while an increase in copper costs was proposed for 2023. And a drop for the fiber service.
• Prysmian -HSBC cuts the target price to 41 euros. Goldman Sachs instead raises it to 44 euros. Mediobanca Jefferies reduces the target price to 9,20 euros.
- Campari -Barclays lowers the target price to 11,80 euros.
