MEDIOBANCA AND CAMFIN, THE SALONS GO TO CONFESSION. RECESSION EFFECT ALSO IN ASIA AND WALL STREET
The appointment is for tomorrow morning when the Governing Council of the ECB will meet. At the end, Mario Draghi will probably hold the most awaited press conference in the history of the central bank.
On the eve, the attention of Italian finance is distracted by two domestic appointments: the meeting, this afternoon, of the board of directors of Mediobanca +4,3% yesterday in Piazza Affari, gathered to listen to Alberto Nagel's reconstruction of the events that led to his registration in the register of suspects at the Milan Public Prosecutor's Office; the face-to-face on the board of Gpi (the box on which the galaxy that leads to Pirelli and Prelios depends) between Marco Tronchetti Provera and Mattia Malacalza, the pair of partners who seem to be on the verge of a divorce. On the eve of the summit the fever cools down for camfin, down 14%.
While waiting for Frankfurt's decisions, the recession alarm continues to weigh on the markets, which is now spreading globally (Australia is also slowing down). This morning the Asian stock exchanges took the downward path for the fifth consecutive session. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 index falls by 0,7%, the drop in Hong Kong is more marked -1,13%. Futures on US stocks suggest a downward opening.
Indices down last night New York: Dow Jones -0,42%, S&P -0,12%. The Nasdaq is saved +0,26% thanks to the growing expectation for the upcoming launch of the iPhone 12 on 5 September. Wall Street was depressed by the ISM index of the US manufacturing sector. This index, based on a survey of corporate purchasing managers, anticipates the industry trend over the next three months. Against forecasts which saw it growing in August to 50, from 49,8 in July, the index instead fell to 49,6. 50 points represents the threshold that separates the expansion phase from the contraction phase.
Construction spending in America was also below expectations: in July it fell by 0,9% from +0,4% in June, economists had expected an increase of 0,4%. Data from US industry also conditioned the outcome of Piazza Affari.
At the end of an all-up session, the FtseMib index finished the day down by 0,2%. A much better result than the losses of London -1,5%, Paris -1,5% and Frankfurt -1,1%. Only the Madrid Stock Exchange maintained its gain up to the end (+0,7%): Spain could be the first country, among those in the Mediterranean area, to ask for the intervention of the ECB once the expected plan anti-spread will be announced.
The sovereign debt market is improving pending the new short-term government bond purchase program which should take shape in the ECB's leadership. The yield of the Italian 5,64-year BTP thus continued its decline to 424%, with a spread of 12 (-2 basis points). The improvement of the 2,29-year BTP was stronger: yield at 233%, spread down to 26 (-XNUMX basis points).
A study by the Bank of Italy reiterates that the 450 points that separate the yields of Italian ten-year bonds from those of Germany have no correlation with economic growth, fiscal conditions and financial risks. The correct range should not exceed 200 points. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank measures the competitive advantages of the German economy compared to the Mediterranean ones from the point of view of access to capital. The differential between the interest paid by Italian companies compared to German ones is now more than two percentage points.
On the Stock Exchange, the improvement in government bonds boosted banks and financial stocks. Mediolanum ran up 6,6%, Unicredit he earns 1,1%. Positive effects also for Generali rise of 0,4%. Negative in the final Understanding -0,5% and Banco Popular -0,5%.
In the rest of Europe the decline, under the pressure of the recession, was driven by the auto sector (Stoxx -2%), where the declines of the Germans weighed bmw -3,2% and Volkswagen -2,9%. In Milan Fiat it decreased by 1,4%, despite the excellent performance of Chrysler (+14%). Fiat Industrial -2,3%.
The rise of Finmeccanica +4,6%, thanks to rumors about an increase in investments in defense by Poland, which could lead to new orders for the Italian group.
In luxury Ferragamo it rose by 1,3% also thanks to the new recommendation Overweight of Barclays and that of HSBC, which has set a target price of 21 euros. Tod’s is down 1,7%. cucinelli + 1,1%.
Among the utilities, they went up A2A + 3,6% Iren +5,3% and Ivy + 0,9%. Telecom Italy gained 2,5%. Strong volatility up Rcs after being suspended several times for both excessive ups and downs, it closed with a new leap up by 17%. Camfin it fell 14%. Erg closed up 4,4% after concluding the sale of 20% of the Isab refinery to Russia's Lukoil.
