Once again Mario Draghi has found a way to surprise investors. In today's meeting, the ECB expanded the Qe program both in quantity (to 80 billion from 60) and in the type of securities involved (also with the admission of all bonds of non-banking companies with ratings equal to "investment grade" ) and gave a new cut to all interest rates: the reference rate was reduced to zero from the previous 0,05%, that of the marginal refinancing fell from 0,30% to 0,25% and that on deposits from - 0,3 to -0,4%.
“The ECB responds to criticisms of a "lack of ammunition" with a list of measures, including innovative ones, to bring inflation back to 2%. The reduction of the deposit rate to -0,4% (and that of the other policy rates) e the increase in securities purchases (from 60 to 80 billion euros) were substantially expected, but the important news concern the purchase of corporate bonds and the new version of the Tltro" commented for example Paolo Guida, Vice President of AIAF-Italian Association of Analysts and Financial Advisors .
The reaction of the markets was immediately explosive: the Ftse Eb it jumped by 4% hooking up to 19 thousand points, just as the other main European lists accelerated. But the euphoria soon faded away and the indices closed in negative territory: Piazza Affari closed down by 0,5%, Paris -1,7%, London -1,78%, Frankfurt -2,3%.
The market has focused on the negative side of the story: such a strong move may indicate that the economy is performing less than expected and that the risk of deflation is higher. The ECB has in fact cut its growth estimates for the Eurozone due to the weak prospects for development of the world economy: to +1,4% for GDP in 2016, +1,7% for 2017 and +1,8% for 2018. Estimates on the inflation this year to 0,1%, from 1% expected last December, in the face of a significant drop in oil prices.
Lo spread At the end of the closing, Btp-Bund confirmed the drop of 7 percentage points to 109 basis points and a yield of 1,44%. This morning the Treasury has placed 6 billion euro of Bots a year against a demand of 9,95 billion with a yield down to -0,068% from -0,032%.
Afternoon sales also hit Wall Street: after a positive start, in line with Europe, at the end of Europe the Dow Jones lost 0,5% and the S&P500 0,44%. Oil was in the red with WTI dropping 1,05% to 32,74 dollars a barrel and Brent 1,37% to 39,7 dollars a barrel. On the other hand, there are still purchases on gold which, in parallel with the new drop in the price lists and the increase in risk aversion, recovers the losses and rises again by 1,10% to 1266,96 dollars an ounce. Meanwhile, weekly jobless claims fell by 5 to 18 in the week ending March 259, the lowest level since October 17 and better than analysts' expectations.
In Piazza Affari the stocks that benefited the most from Draghi's push were the banks with a leap for Unicredit up to 10%. In closing, the sector reduced the euphoria: Unicredit closed at +2,32%, second best stock of the Ftse Mib behind Bpm +4,91%, Intesa +1,11%, Ubi +1,25%. MPS, on the other hand, closed unchanged while Banco Popolare lost 1,62%.
A2a +2,2%, Atlantia +1,84% and Snam +1,71% are also highlighted among the blue chips. At the bottom of the Ftse Mib, Yoox -5,19%, Saipem -3,91%, Moncler -3,69%, Eni -3,43%, Tenaris -3,43% are losing ground.
The Ftse Italia Index Policy Committee has established the changes for the basket of big names in Piazza Affari which will thus once again include 40 stocks and no longer 41 as happened after the spin-off of Ferrari from Fiat Chrysler at the beginning of 2016. Yoox will exit the index, who entered it about five years ago. The index update will become effective after the close of business on Friday 18 March and will then be operational from the following Monday.
