The A2a stock overcomes the Covid effect and goes to highest since February 2020, with an increase of 1,1% to 1,78 euros.
To push the quotes is the agreement with Ardian for the development of a maxi energy platform focused on green generation and the supply of electricity, with the aim of making the joint venture "one of the leading platforms in Italy in the energy transition and one of the largest producers and suppliers of electricity in the country in line with the objectives set by the Italian Pniec and the Paris Agreement”.
As expected, A2a will form a newco for generation assets (hydroelectric, combined cycle gas, wind and solar), customers in the market area and hydrogen projects. The indicative preliminary assessment of the scope of the transfer is approximately 3 billion in enterprise value with an aggregate Ebitda of 360 million.
As far as Ardian is concerned, the understanding establishes that the French company will invest up to 1,5 billion in the newco in cash, contributing to the implementation of A2A's industrial plan and coming to hold 45% of the share capital. A2A and Ardian have also already identified some potential acquisitions and plan to evaluate other opportunities in the future. The creation of the partnership is subject to due diligence and the parties have granted each other exclusivity terms until the end of the year.
“With the new 2020-2030 business plan presented in January, we have more than doubled the growth rate of our group, in line with the extraordinary acceleration imprinted with the redefinition of the PNRR launched by the Draghi government. The agreement with Ardian is a concrete possibility of bringing forward by several years the growth objectives in renewable generation envisaged in the industrial plan, combining financial resources and industrial assets”, he declared the managing director of A2A Renato Mazzoncini.
Secondo Equita analysts the implicit valuation of the assets included in the business units involved in the agreement, ie the generation area and the market area, would be equal to 4,1 billion. “Considering the 2020 adjusted Ebitda of the two divisions equal to 476 million, the implied EV/Ebitda would be 8,6 times, which would drop to 6,8 times on our 2022 estimates, thanks to the scenario effect (energy prices +20 euro /MWh) and the impact of ancillary services and the capacity market (+40 million)", adds the broker, according to which "thanks to the deal A2A will be able to strengthen its capital structure, considering the significant investment plan and therefore accelerate the growth in renewables”.
Equita underlines that the dilutive effect on the company's results will have to be assessed and "it will be important to verify the composition of the assets conferred and which customers will be brought into the joint venture, given that the multiple of the market area is lower than the generation". Equita values the two divisions at 3,7 billion against the 4,1 billion indicated in the restructuring.
