“I don't feel like ruling out the risk of recession.” Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan once again surprises the markets with a note of pessimism. But the words of the most powerful banker in the world must be read in the light of inflation data which will be released today. Woe, Dimon seems to say, if the central banks do not seize the opportunity of the slowdown in prices to start the drop in rates, as urged by most bankers and by the outcome of a survey Reuters: in economists' estimates, inflation measured by the PCE index should reach an average of 2,2% this year and 2,0% in 2025 and 2026.
Positive opening for European stock markets
European markets get the message and are betting on the acceleration of the decline in rates. The stock exchanges of the Old Continent thus open on positive ground, in harmony with the Eastern stock markets. What takes the lead is the stock market Hong Kong +2,3% driven by Tencent +3,3%. But all sector indices are positive, including bricks and mortar. Weekly data on apartment sales gives support to real estate companies. The title of the real estate developer also earns 3%. China Vanke, downgraded yesterday by Moody's to junk.
Xiaomi enters the electric car
In Shanghai Xiaomi, smartphone leader, makes a leap of 7% after announcing the start of sales of its electric car: from March 28th in 29 cities it will be possible to purchase 7 SUVs.
The index CSI300 today it rose to the highest since mid-November. In just over a month it rebounded by over +16%, achieving the best performance of the period at a global level, thanks to signs of a restart in inflation. Since the beginning of the year, China's benchmark index has grown by +4,5%, more than the Dow Jones (+3,8%) or Mumbai (+3,6%).
The bag makes a history in itself Tokyo (-0,6%), now starting to bring rates back into positive territory. The yield rate on the ten-year government bond reaches its highest level in the last three months, at 0,772%. During a hearing in Parliament, governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that the economy is slowly recovering, "despite some statistics showing signs of weakness". The header Jiji writes that the central bank will evaluate with great attention the results of the union report on the latest wage increases to be published on Friday, if the increase is above 3,8% year on year, it should be decided at the board meeting next week the first increase in reference rates after eight negative years.
Oracle soars on Wall Street (+13%)
Beyond Europe, too Wall Street is preparing for a positive opening, galvanized by the accounts of Oracle (+13%). The software giant last night presented quarterly figures that were well above expectations regarding sales of cloud-based products. CEO Safra Catz emphasized in the presentation that the result was due to “large new contracts for cloud infrastructure.
Today's attention is entirely focused on the data fromconsumer price index of February, expected at 14 pm, for further indications on interest rates. A +30% is estimated, unchanged compared to January, and a +3,1% at the "core" level, slowing down from +3,7% in January. In the latter case, if the estimates are confirmed, it would be the lowest pace since May 3,90
Tim does not slow down Piazza Affari, spread stable at 132 points
La Milan Stock Exchange (+0,18%) remains attached to the highs of the last 15 years which have just reached 33.540 points. The “sad” events of Tim for the moment they have not had a negative impact on investor sentiment. The CEO, Labriola, tried to convince the market of the validity of his projects by putting in 100 thousand euros from his own pocket to purchase around 500 thousand shares, a good signal without a doubt, which is often worth more than many proclamations.
For the bonds, first wait-and-see session of the week. 4,09-year Treasury yield at 4,06% from 2,30%. German Bund at 2,26% from 3,62%. Ten-year BTP at 3,56% from 132%. Spread stable at XNUMX.
On the agenda meeting of European finance ministers in Brusselsin which ECB vice-president de Guindos and Italian minister Giorgetti will also take part. Yesterday at the Eurogroup meeting the foundations were laid, with a list of priorities until 2029, to achieve the Capital Market Union.
The Eurogroup prepares the new capital market
The Eurogroup of European Finance Ministers has said yes to a series of guidelines dedicated tocapital markets union. “For Europe to become a more effective leader in the world, it must allow its companies to have diversified access to money”, explained the president of the Eurogroup yesterday Paschal Donohoe. The Commissioner for Economic Affairsthe Paolo Gentiloni underlined the urgency for action: “New competitive financial centers and new innovative ecosystems are emerging very quickly, as in India and Brazil. The world is not waiting for us."
Bitcoin conquers the London Stock Exchange
The race continues Bitcoin, which yesterday reached new records (approximately +70% since the beginning of the year). The driving force was the decision of United Kingdom to open the doors to ETNs backed by cryptocurrencies. The London Stock Exchange will accept applications for Bitcoin and Ether ETNs starting in the second quarter.
THEgold opens slightly lower. Yesterday it achieved its ninth consecutive rise, remaining attached to the historical record. If the US CPI data due out this afternoon confirms the trend towards a slowdown in inflation, perhaps at a faster pace than expected, there will certainly be room to see higher prices, especially if there are also negative repercussions on the dollar.
Banks, does not increase the reserve, the Lion confirms the targets
Banks in the dust. There ECB would have decided not to increase the minimum capital reserve of supervised banks, it was reported last night Bloomberg. The problem is not so much the amount of liquidity to be kept in Frankfurt, but the level of remuneration. Recently, some members of the central bank's board had said that the time had come to take back what had been granted to the banks in times of negative rates.
The titles highlighted on Piazza Affari:
Leonardo (+6%) published the new industrial plan targets this morning. 2024 EBITDA is expected at 1,44 billion euros (consensus 1,35 billion). In 2025, the same indicator should reach 1,6 billion, very slightly above estimates.
A2a (+ 1,07%) published this morning the complete data for 2023, most of which have already been released, as well as the targets for 2024 and 2026. Last year's net profit is slightly higher than consensus estimates. The indications for the current year and the next two years are in line with expectations.
Generali (+0,8%) ha closed 2023 with record results but in line with expectations. The dividend was better than expected, brought to 1,28 euros per share (+10,3%). Operating profit rose 7,9% year-on-year to 6,9 billion euros. The company confirms the targets of the development plan: compound growth in earnings per share between 6% and 8% between 2021 and 2024.
