The Asian stock exchanges moved little this morning, awaiting the reopening of Wall Street after the fireworks for the 4th of July celebration, almost an anticipation of the euphoria that could mark the last session of the week if today, at 14 pm Italian time , US labor market data will offer new arguments for rate cuts. Forecasts speak of 160.000 new jobs in June, about double the May figure (75 units) sufficient to keep the unemployment rate stable at 3,6%, an all-time low. A lower result could bring new arguments to pressure from the White House which is pushing for a robust cut also to favor the decline of the dollar. Meanwhile, with Wall Street stopped yesterday, the European stock exchanges moved forward with a new one. Impressive drop in euro area bond yields, starting with the Bund.
EVEN THE GREEK VOTE MAY PUSH BTPs
Even the BTPs, stable yesterday after the sharp declines that greeted the narrow escape of the infringement procedure, seem in a position to continue the rally which could also be fueled by Sunday's elections in Greece. The probable victory of New Democracy against Alexis Tsipras could accelerate purchases of Athens bonds (the 2-year yield has already halved to XNUMX% since the beginning of the year) with benefits for Southern European bonds, starting with BTPs.
SIDNEY AT THE HIGHEST SINCE 2007, SAMSUNG PAYS FOR THE CHIP CRISIS
In this context, the price lists are about to say goodbye to a week dedicated to doves.
The Australian stock market was lively, still under the effect of the rate cut practiced in the middle of the week: Sydney advanced by 0,5% in the fifth consecutive day of increases and the highest in the last twelve years.
The other markets in the Pacific area were subdued, concentrated on US numbers. Weak Tokyo and Hong Kong (-0,1%), also down the Csi 300 index of Shanghai and Shenzhen. In the red, the Korean Kospi -1% during the week. The effects of the trade war are being felt in the chip industry: Samsung announces a 56% drop in profits.
Gold closes the week up at 1.417 dollars an ounce.
The most disturbing note concerns the tensions surrounding the oil market. British naval special forces seized an oil tanker sailing in the Strait of Gibraltar carrying Iranian oil destined for Syria yesterday evening. The Tehran authorities responded by summoning the British ambassador tonight.
However, crude oil prices did not record any particular jolts: yesterday
Brent oil closed down 0,8% at 63,3 dollars a barrel.
In Piazza Affari Eni and Tenaris report progress of 0,54% and 1,04% respectively. Saras rears up: +3%.
SIXTH DAY OF UPHILL IN MILAN
Even in the absence of Wall Street, the script of Piazza Affari did not change yesterday. The rise, which reached the sixth day in a row, continued thanks to the propellant of the banks. The other markets, on the contrary, pull the oars to the bank, waiting for the next moves of the central banks.
Milan achieved an increase of 0,98%, returning above 22.120 points. In the last month, the Italian stock market gained 9%.
In Frankfurt, the Dax30 gained 0,11%, flat in Paris (+0,03%) and London (-0,075%).
BNP PARIBAS: TWO CUTS FOR THE ECB IN 2019
"By the end of 2019 - says Luigi Speranza, chief global economist of Bnp Paribas - we expect the ECB to cut rates by ten points twice and reintroduce quantitative easing". The market shows that it believes in the expansive acceleration of the central bank, coinciding with the arrival of Christine Lagarde who will continue Mario Draghi's mission.
Leading the race to the bottom of yields is the German Bund, which plunged in the ten-year version to -0,403%, below the negative rate on deposits applied by the European Central Bank. About 85% of outstanding German government bonds have negative yields. In the world, a quarter of bonds are below zero in terms of yield, amounting to 13.400 trillion dollars.
AUSTRIA TO 2117 RETURNS 1,06%
At the top (or rather at the bottom) of the ranking, the crazy supremacy of the 100-year Austrian bond issued in 2017 is consolidated: the yield has fallen to 1,06%, with a drop of 5 points. In September of two years, at the time of issue, it traded at 2,153%.
Adjustment day instead for the Btp, after the dizzying rise that coincided with the "acquittal" of the budget by Brussels. The ten-year yield rises to 1,67%, from 1,58% yesterday. Spread at 206 basis points, +10 basis points.
GOES TO MPS ORBIT (+17%)
The desire for Italian paper is growing stronger, as evidenced by the success of the new proposals from the banks, once again at the center of the rise in Piazza Affari.
The market has rewarded the new issues: Ubi Banca +5,62%, which received offers for more than 500 million euro of interest for the new 2 million 250-year TierXNUMX bond, callable starting from the fifth year.
Even more sensational was the reception given to the offer by Mps, the former outcast of the sector, protagonist of a veritable rally which greeted the news of the mandate given to Morgan Stanley for the issue of a 17,55 million three-year senior preferred bond with a final yield of 500%.
Runs Unicredit (+4,9%) ahead of Intesa Sanpaolo (+2,3%). Counter Bpm +2,8%, Bper +2,1%.
In managed business, Finecobank stands out (+3,18%). In June, the company's net inflows amounted to 626 million.
GOOD SIGNS FOR CNH, CAMPARI HOLDS BACK
Outside of the financial sector, the car was positive: Fiat Chrysler (+0,3%) celebrates the purchase of Fabio Grasso, who is leaving Nike to become Maserati's chief operating officer. Cnh Industrial climbs (+0,8%) after the CEO confirmed the 2019 targets and said he is very optimistic about 2020. Pirelli +1,7%.
Enel is still doing well (+0,4%), while Campari is slowing down (-1,7%), now the defensive stock par excellence. Citi raises its target price to 8,85 euros, Deutsche Bank to 10,2 euros.
ATLANTIA, MOODY'S PUT THE RATING IN THE SIGHT
Atlantia is up slightly. But yesterday evening, with the markets closed, the Moody's agency announced that it had placed Atlantia's rating under review for a possible downgrade due to the risks associated with the concession by Autostrade per l'Italia (Aspi).
Technogym and Ovs are among the best stocks on the list, both +7%. Salini Impregilo +4,3%.
