Bitcoin recovers, Fed does not rule out hikes, commodities fall

After the collapse, Bitcoin rears its head - The Fed could raise rates at the end of the summer - Commodity prices fall - Btp under tension - Lvmh is in Tods' future

The cryptocurrency storm has stopped. On the contrary: thanks to the renewed support of Elon Musk, Catie Woods and other leading gurus, Bitcoin has climbed back to $40, followed by Ethereum. The shadow of a crazy day remains, in which tens of billions of dollars were burned and then partially recovered. Without, in truth, creating major upheavals on the price lists, which also show, after the long run, a desire to clean up. It's not just a cryptocurrency problem, accuses Sandy Robertson, a Silicon Valley veteran. “I see a lot monnezza in the SPACs – he says – as well as in the latest IPOs”. And the heroes loved by the Robinhooders suffer: Musk and Catie, head of the Ark funds, already protagonists of three or four-digit increases.

All the fuss overshadowed the long-awaited minutes of the Fed, from which it emerged that "a certain number of bankers" at the last meeting argued that, if the recovery of the economy continues, we will have to start talking about "a plan to stabilize asset purchases. That is exactly what operators from all over the world think: it will probably be discussed again at the end of the summer, on the occasion of the meeting in Jackson Hole.

JAPAN EXPORTS FLY: +38% THANKS TO THE CAR

Asian stock exchanges showed little movement, with the exception of Sydney (+1%). The Asia Pacific index is down 0,2%. Hong Kong -0,8%, weak Tokyo and Korea, dominated by the return of short sellers, admitted again after two years of bans.

Boom of Japanese exports in August: +38%, thanks to the tow of cars and consumer electronics.

FUTURE PLATES, PRICES OF RAW MATERIALS FALL

No indications from Wall Street futures following a slightly lower session in the S&P500 index (-0,29%). Better the Nasdaq (-0,03%). Dow Jones -0,48%.

La inflation syndrome this morning it does not weigh on the T bond: 1,66% on ten-year bonds.

The prices of raw materials are also decreasing: iron ore -8%, coal -7%. WTI oil is up slightly to $63,5 a barrel this morning. U.S. crude inventories rose 1,3 million barrels, 0,7 million barrels less than analyst consensus had expected. Texas crude dropped 3,2% yesterday.

TAX AVOIDANCE, CRIMINAL INQUIRY INTO TRUMP

The Trump Organization, former President Donald Trump's family holding company, is the subject of a criminal investigation for suspected tax avoidance. This was announced by the New York State Attorney.

DE GUINDOS (ECB): INFLATION IS GOOD IF IT ACCOMPANY THE RECOVERY

While awaiting the release of the minutes of the Fed, the Vice President of the European Central Bank, Luis De Guindos spoke yesterday: "The ECB - he declared - will intervene on the bond markets if it deems that the increase in interest rates is not justified by a recovery in the 'economy".

The case is different if there is an ongoing recovery: "If inflation starts to rise because economic activity normalizes, then nominal rates will have to rise".

In the meantime, however, the Central Bank's "Stability Review" notes that "governments are facing a delicate balance between a premature adjustment of support measures, which could help trigger a wave of corporate insolvencies, and maintaining such measures for too long, thus keeping unhealthy businesses alive”. And waiting for the squaring of the circle, the operators have only one imperative: to sell.

EVEN IN EUROPE THE BURST ON BITCOIN, TODAY RECOVERING

Cryptocurrencies stole the show from stocks yesterday as the sector panicked. Bitcoin fell down to $30, before recovering to $37 (-14%). Coinbase, the most important trading platform for financial instruments that allow exposure to the crypto world, lost 6%.

The price has halved in one month compared to the historic peak of $64 reached in mid-April. Ethereum lost 45% of its value in just a few minutes, reaching a low at $1.918: it is now changing hands, down 23%, to $2.600.

The storm broke when the People's Bank of China reiterated its opposition to tokens as a form of digital payment. But the descent had begun a few days earlier, when Elon Musk had rejected bitcoin considering it too little "green".

IN ROSSO MILANO (-1,6%), CAROVITA AT 2% IN THE EU

Piazza Affari drops 1,58% and slips to 24.486 points, with sales spread across all sectors.

The other price lists are in red: Frankfurt -1,66%, Amsterdam -1,63%, Paris -1,45, Madrid -1,26%, London -1,07%.

Inflation rises. In the Eurozone, the annual rate rose to 1,6% in April from 1,3% in March. In the European Union the rate rose to 2%, from 1,7% in March.

In Britain, the price level more than doubled in April, to its highest level since last year, and rose from 0,7% year-on-year in March to 1,5%. The driving force was the cost of clothing and energy.

THE BUND AT -0,09%: IT HAS NOT HAPPENED FOR TWO YEARS

The rush to purchase the Bund accelerates to -0,11%, after reaching -0,09% in the early stages, a level never seen in the last two years.

The BTP recovered from the lows to end the session with a modest drop, after a day marked once again by rising rates on the strengthening of inflation expectations in a market that thinks about the next moves of the central banks and about a tapering that could come sooner expected.

THE SPREAD GOES BACK TO 123

At the end of the session, the spread between BTP and Bund rates on the 10-year segment stood at 119 basis points, from 117 on the previous day after a maximum of 123.

The 1,07-year rate closed at 1,11% after a peak of 1,05%, the highest since the end of August, six percentage points higher than the previous day's XNUMX%.

FTSE MIB, ONLY FIVE POSITIVE STOCKS

Gold rises: the ECB warns of a possible real estate bubble in the Old Continent. The Bitcoin landslide is also taking place. In this context, only five stocks are resisting the bear: Amplifon +0,58%, A2a +0,35%, Diasorin +0,32% and Recordati +0,24%. In the banking sector, only Banca Bpm was positive (+0,35%).

TOD'S +3,5%: LVMH IS IN THE FUTURE. FLY AEFFE (+8,9%)

Outside the main list, Tod's lengthens (+3,5%), on the maximum since August 2019 (+63% since the beginning of the year). Diego Della Valle, president and controlling shareholder of the luxury group, explained that he has no intention at the moment of selling the company, but if he ever decides to take this step he would have "full confidence in people like Bernard Arnault", of the Lvmh group .

Very good in Aeffe clothing (+8,92%). Intesa Sanpaolo raised its target price from 1,23 to 1,65 euro, confirming the add recommendation after the first quarter accounts. “We appreciate that order intake for the Autumn-Winter 2021-2022 season was +12% on last year, with all brands expanding with the exception of Alberta Ferretti (flat year-over-year).”

ARREST FOR MEDIOBANCA. FINECO -2,7%

For the rest the deep red prevails. The banking sector falls, the most followed due to the maneuvers involving Unicredit (-1,26%), Bper (-1,89%) and Monte Paschi (-3,74% after the leap on the eve).

Sales are fierce on Fineco (-2,71%). Banca Mediolanum (-1,95%) and Mediobanca (-1,93%) are down sharply, awaiting the next purchases of Delfin, which, with 15,4%, already far exceeds the share in the hands of the collective agreement.

CNH UNDER FIRE, OILS DOWN

Among industrialists, Cnh Industrial plummets (-5,35%). Buzzi Unicem scores -3,55%, as does Pirelli. Stellantis falls back (-2,40%).

The oil sector was also penalized: Tenaris -2,74%, Eni -2,28% and Saipem -1,67%.

TIM (-0,91%) HOPES FOR THE BALL. DEBTS FALL

Tim (-0,91%) yesterday released quarterly results that were down, but better than expected. The same trend for the coming months: the data could worsen until June and recover in the second half of the year thanks to the rights to Serie A matches. Between January and March, the company led by Luigi Gubitosi – just confirmed as CEO until spring 2024 – closed with revenues of 3,75 billion, with revenues from Italian fixed services decreasing by 0,5% to 2,138 billion and revenues from mobiles slipping by 11,3% to 757 million.

The best news of the accounts comes from the debt, which fell at the end of March to 21,15 billion (from 23,32 at the end of December) thanks to the sale of 37,5% of Fibercop (1,8 billion) and the cash generation of period, which rose to 469 million.

TECHNOGYM -8%. ALESSANDRI STILL SELLS

In heavy Technogym red (-8%). The controlling holding company TGH has put 12 million shares up for sale, approximately 6% of the capital, at 10,81 euros, with a 4% discount. This is the fourth sale of shares by Nerio Alessandri, who in this way drops to 34% of the capital, but with 50% voting rights.