Conviction, acquittal, postponement, repetition of the appeal process. There are four possible scenarios for Silvio Berlusconi, who will soon know the final verdict of the Mediaset rights trial. At the end of the first and second degree proceedings, the Knight was sentenced to four years' imprisonment and five years' disqualification from public office for tax fraud. He today it's up to the Cassation. The ex prime minister's lawyers do not intend to ask for any postponement of the sentence, which in any case could arrive tomorrow, if not Thursday.
If the judges confirmed the sentence, the Knight would still not risk crossing the threshold of a prison. Three of the four years of imprisonment would be condoned, while for the fourth his lawyers would ask the Surveillance Court (and would certainly obtain) the alternative measure of probationary assignment to social services. Furthermore, being over 70, Berlusconi could serve his sentence under house arrest.
As for the interdiction from public office, if confirmed, Berlusconi would not be able to run again for the next five years. However, to have him immediately removed from the office of senator, a favorable vote by the Immunity Council of Palazzo Madama would be required.
The second possibility is that of definitive acquittal, which would immediately solve every problem of the Knight. However, the judges have at least two other ways available: to postpone the sentence until after the summer or to order the celebration of a new appeal process. In this case, the specter of the statute of limitations would hover again, which would start in September next year.
Meanwhile, the markets seem to be betting on a positive conclusion for the former prime minister. By mid-morning, all titles in the Berlusconi galaxy were on the rise: Mediaset +3,7%, Mondadori +3,8% and Mediolanum +1,5%.
