È il giorno della Bce. Oggi, giovedì 10 settembre la Banca centrale europea will raise interest rates, no doubts from analysts and the market who foresee an increase of a quarter of a point of the deposit rate, at 2,5%The future, however, is more uncertain: some predict a stabilization at that level until the end of 2027, while others predict two further increases by the middle of next year.
The ECB is ready to raise interest rates
The Eurozone economy held up better than expected at war in Middle East. “This is partly due to luck and the fact that Asian competitors were hit harder by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and lost orders to European competitors, but also to the fiscal stimulus announced some time ago,” explains Carsten Brzeski, global head of Macro at ING.
In reverse, inflation continued to rise, reaching 3,3% in August, the highest level since September 2023, which is further away from the 2% target. Even in this case, however, there are those who see the glass half full because, if overall inflation rises, other indicators such as core and services inflation, At the moment, they are not causing much concern. The increase is almost exclusively due to energy costs. "With oil prices remaining high and the risk of a new gas price shock rising, it will be difficult for most ECB monetary policymakers not to see compelling reasons for a further rate hike," comments ING, which speaks of a “precautionary” touch-up.
And the staff's projections won't change the scenario. The data are from two weeks ago, which means they exclude sharp rises in bond yields. Estimates will be revised upwards due to crude oil prices, which will impact growth and inflation forecasts for 2027. In any case, Morgan Stanley reminds us, the euro area is in an intermediate position between baseline and adverse scenario.
And then?
Christine Lagarde will likely not make any commitments about the future, especially since, while rumors swirl about her possible early departure from the ECB, she might not even be the one to decide. In any case, much will depend on what happens in the Middle East: the longer the war lasts, the more severe its effects will be.
We expect the ECB to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting. As long as inflation remains driven primarily by energy prices, this should be sufficient. A further an increase after September wouldn't make much sense and could damage the eurozone economy,” says Brzeski of Ing.
Konstantin Veit of Pimco is of the same opinion, and after the September increase he predicts "a long break, Even though any emerging risks to inflation expectations could push the ECB to continue its policy of raising rates, any further increases would push the DFR above the upper bound of the ECB's neutral rate estimates and would likely require a new energy shock, evidence of second-order effects on wages, or a decoupling of inflation expectations—none of which is currently reflected in the data, Pimco concludes.
(Last updated Thursday, September 10, at 12:05 AM)
