Albeit in a framework of uncertainty, "the conditions exist for a gradual improvement in economic activity in the coming quarters, with a growing contribution from domestic demand, also thanks to the orientation of economic policies". This is what was declared by the deputy general manager of the Bank of Italy Fabio Panetta who spoke today at the conference for the 75th anniversary of the central institute of Italian popular banks (Icbpi).
Although the condition of economic recovery is slow and fragile, Bank of Italy sees an increase in industrial production in the second half of the year. Even the recent measures announced by the European Central Bank could give a stimulus to growth which Via Nazionale estimates at a cumulative contribution of half a point of GDP in the three-year period 2014-2016 on the basis of the effects already seen on interest rates and exchange rates.
"The signs of improvement that have emerged in recent months foreshadow a slow and fragile recovery - said Panetta - Its consolidation requires structural reforms capable of guaranteeing a favorable climate for economic activity, strengthening the protection of legality and the efficiency of the public administration, fighting corruption, crime and tax evasion", continued the deputy director of Bankutalia, who also notes some encouraging signs "from the improvement of some components of national demand, which are added to the new expansion of exports".
Furthermore, the recent measures and the "strengthening of the forward guidance" of the ECB will also give support to the recovery.
"On the basis of the effects observed up to now on the exchange rate and on market rates, it is estimated that for Italy the stimulus to product growth in the three-year period 2014-16 could be cumulatively in the order of half a percentage point", concluded Panetta.
