Uncertainty over trade policies remains high and continues to weigh on the global economy, and therefore, on the Italian economy. This is confirmed by the Economic Bulletin issued by the Bank of Italy for the three-year period 2025-2027, which objectively presents no major surprises: tariffs are slowing economic growth in the euro area and Italy. Indeed, euro area GDP shifted sharply into negative territory in the second quarter. as the push from US demand fades which had supported it at the beginning of the year. Growth was also expected to be modest during the summer months.
The global context and the impact of tariffs on our economy too
Italy's GDP suffered the same fate in the second quarter, falling slightly, reflecting the sharp decline in exports. During the summer months, the Italian economy would have started to expand again, albeit modestly, reflecting the rise in investments and the slight increase in consumption. Inflation remained just below 2% while credit to non-financial corporations began to grow again, especially in the short-term component. The increase in tariffs therefore had and will have consequences for Italian businesses Exporters to the United States and their suppliers: "According to our assessments," the Bank of Italy explains in its report, "the impact on related industries would be limited overall. However, the negative effects of tariffs on these companies could be exacerbated by other factors, including the geographical reconfiguration of global value chains and the negative repercussions of geopolitical tensions on international trade."
The consequences of the new American trade policies are in fact already visible in the flow of goods: the volumes imported from the United States have significantly reduced, with significant effects on global trade"The tariffs envisaged in the agreement between the United States and the European Union would have a relatively limited direct impact on EU GDP growth, but the high uncertainty over trade policies could dampen business investment," our Central Bank maintains.
GDP and inflation forecasts: growth well below 1%
In this framework, Italy's GDP should increase of 0,6% in 2025 and 2026 and of 0,7% in 2027, noting that the methodology used by the Bank of Italy elaborates estimates based on seasonally adjusted and working-day-adjusted data: without this adjustment, GDP would grow by 0,5% in 2025 and by 0,7% in both 2026 and 2027. The projections do not incorporate the measures of the next budget package, but only the general approach outlined in the Public Finance Planning Document approved on October 2, the Bank of Italy Bulletin specifies. Consumer price inflation averages 1,7% in 2025, 1,5% in 2026, and 1,9% in 2027. Excluding energy and food, inflation is 1,9%. in the current year and 1,6% in each of the two subsequent years.
Bank lending to businesses is growing again, but only to the larger ones.
First signs of awakening instead for the bank loans to businesses, especially in servicesIn its Quarterly Economic Bulletin, the Bank of Italy reports that loans to non-financial firms increased year-on-year in August for the first time since January 2023. The twelve-month increase is 1,2%, compared to the -1,4% recorded in May. However, the growth does not affect all firms or all sectors. Economists at Via Nazionale indicate that loans to larger companies have resumed their upward trend (+1,7% from -0,9%), while those to smaller businesses continued to decline, albeit less intensely (-7% from -8,7%). The trend then returned to positive territory only for service companies (+1,4% from -1,6%) and became less negative for manufacturing and construction companies (-0,5 and -0,9 percent, from -2,7 and -2,6 percent, respectively).
Between May and August, we read in the Bulletin, family lending has accelerated (+2% from 1,5%), reflecting the improvement in mortgage lending (2,9%, from 2,5%). Consumer credit growth continued at a strong pace, but remained essentially unchanged from May (+4,8%).
