They serve at least 30 billion for non-performing loans. This is supported by a report by Credit Suisse entitled "Npl: there is a need for much more firepower", in which the Swiss institute starts hedging the securities of four Italian banks after completing its asset quality review, more than a week ahead of schedule Publication of EBA stress test results awaited. The banks examined are Intesa Sanpaolo, Ubi Banca, Unicredit and Monte dei Paschi di Siena.
Swiss analysts have promoted Intesa Sanpaolo and Ubi Banca: for both the judgment is outperform with target prices of 2,5 and 3,5 euros respectively and both, according to Credit Suisse, "should show a capital surplus even in the adverse scenario". In the middle of the morning, Intesa Sanpaolo shares gained almost 2% to almost 2 euros per share, going against the trend in a difficult day for the banking sector, and Ubi also conquered almost 1% to 2,82 euros per share.
On the other hand, the situation of Unicredit and Monte dei Paschi di Siena is more difficult, which under conditions of stress "will probably have to deal with capital deficits". For this reason, the Swiss institute assigns Unicredit (+1,2% to 2,242 euros) neutral rating with a target price of 2,28 euros, while for Mps (which loses almost 3% at 0,3137 euros per share) the judgment is underperform with a target of 0,29 euros.
Credit Suisse therefore underlines that to solve the problem of non-performing loans for the entire Italian sector "we need no less than 30 billion", while at the moment the Fondo Atlante will be able to buy "a maximum of 18 billion" of NPLs. "Nevertheless - the experts write - we see the possibility that the fund will raise new funds for only 5-6 billion from private investors". For this "the sector will need to rely on the new government measures and on the increase in the coverage of non-performing loans by the banks themselves".
Returning to the stress tests conducted by Credit Suisse, the institution estimates that Unicredit could show, in the adverse scenario, a capital deficit of between 4 and 9 billion, while for MPS the potential "shortfall" would be between 600 million and 3,5 billion. Figures leading to a aggregate deficit up to 12 billion, analysts note. "We believe that Unicredit is already discounting this situation, while MPS would probably need public aid or face a resolution in our adverse scenario," they conclude.
