The Italian market is waiting. As if yet another announcement could arrive at any moment, one that could turn the Italian financial system upside down—again. After all, just over a month has passed since Banco Bpm's wedding proposal to MPS and the subsequent (just a few hours) offer of 30,6 billion launched by Intesa and Unipol still on Siena. And while the Italian banking game is in the process of its second phase, one of the protagonists is still missing from the scene, namely Unicredit.
Successfully archived the offer on Commerzbank, The bank led by Andrea Orcel may now decide to pursue a dual track. The first leads to Frankfurt. In Germany, Piazza Gae Aulenti has undertaken the long authorization process necessary to gain control of the German bank and, in the meantime, continues to seek dialogue—so far extremely difficult—with the German government. The second track, however, leads home, a market where, if Intesa's offer for MPS-Mediobanca were to succeed, Unicredit would lose significant ground, perhaps too much.
Unicredit-Commerz: The Long Road to Control of the German Bank
Last July 3rd – but the final data were published on July 8th – Unicredit announced that it had concluded the takeover bid for Commerzbank with subscriptions equal to 17,6% of the capital, which added to the other shares already in its possession, they bring it to 47,59% of the capital of the German institution and 49,65% of the voting rights. It's almost 60% if derivatives with cash-only settlement are also included in the count.
With such a high stake already in the bank, and considering that traditionally, participation at Commerz meetings is just over 70%, Unicredit will therefore have control of the meeting. times are not shortThe green light from the ECB and the various antitrust authorities should arrive within three to six months, while the meeting for the renewal of the top management of the bank led by CEO Bettina Orlopp, who have always been hostile to the takeover undertaken almost two years ago by the Italian institution, is scheduled for April 2027. Only at that point, Orcel will be able to take over control of the supervisory board, appoint a new board and begin the process that will lead to the desired merger with its German subsidiary Hvb.
Assuming everything goes smoothly. Because in this context, there's one unknown, always the same, hanging over the operation: the German government, He has always been opposed to the deal and has tried (at least verbally) to block it until the very end. UniCredit's chairman has long been trying to extend an olive branch to the Federal Chancellery, but with no apparent results. Now that the takeover is complete, starting a constructive dialogue could be crucial for the future of the three banks involved (UniCredit and Commerzbank are joined by HVB).
There is one last factor to take into consideration: if the German campaign is successful, Unicredit's activities in Germany will represent more than 60% of total assets, a percentage that could push the authorities in Berlin to ask Orcel to move the headquarters from Milan to GermanyAt that point, the Italian government could take action, opening yet another front.
UniCredit in Italy: Five Options on the Table
And it's precisely to rebalance the business and, at the same time, avoid losing ground in Italy (or at least lose less) that Piazza Gae Aulenti is reportedly considering entering the second phase of the domestic game of risk. And in this case, five consolidation options are on the table.
The first is a return of flame towards Bpm bank, which, however, has a significant shareholder in its shareholder base, namely Crédit Agricole, which is just shy of 30% of the capital. Relations with Banque Verte, moreover, are not idyllic, considering that the distribution contract for Amundi products expires in 2027 and that Unicredit has already announced its intention not to renew it. Compared to the past, however, there could be a change: the Meloni government's U-turn, which this time would welcome a marriage with another Italian bank rather than a further French advance.
The second option is general bank, 51% controlled by Generali, of which Unicredit in turn holds 8,8%. Rumors circulating therefore suggest a possible exchange (the Generali share for the Banca Generali share), a move that however for Piazza Gae Aulenti would imply not only giving up the rich coupons of the Lion, but also exiting the company's shareholding when Intesa is about to enter (through the 13% of Mediobanca to which is added a 3% already purchased on the market). It is difficult to imagine that Orcel would be willing to make such a "sacrifice", considering also that a few weeks ago the manager had tried to take the opposite path, that is, offering Delfin Unicredit shares in exchange for 10% of the Generali in the hands of the Del Vecchio family's holding company. And this latest move could foreshadow the intention to further expand within the Lion's company, subsequently seeking a cohabitation agreement with Intesa.
According to the Economy Courier, a fourth dossier would have also arrived on Andrea Orcel's desk, this time concerning Finecobank. For Piazza Gae Aulenti, this would be a return to the past, considering that Fineco was owned by the bank: it was listed in 2014 and then gradually sold off its stake, until the last share was sold in 2019 as part of the capital strengthening strategy launched under the leadership of then CEO Jean Pierre Mustier.
Finally, there are those who do not even exclude a muscular move: that is, a counteroffer on Monte dei Paschi This would trigger a multi-billion dollar battle with Intesa. This hypothesis, however, clashes with Andrea Orcel's traditional approach, which has always been attentive to the financial parameters of his transactions.
In short, there are several alternatives, and Unicredit is apparently evaluating all of them (or almost all of them). However, waiting too long before making a decision could be counterproductive. The risk is that in the meantime, as happened with Intesa Sanpaolo's decision to invest in MPS, others will make their move, leaving Andrea Orcel with increasingly limited room for maneuver.
