With a more than ever unexpected move from the markets, the American rating agency Moody's has decided to improve the outlook on Italian banks, bringing it from negative a stable.
The agency justifies the decision by explaining that next year the banking sector of our country will continue along the path of reducing NPLs. Furthermore, Moody's continues, the financing conditions of institutions will improve, while capital levels will remain stable.
“We expect that problem loans from Italian banks will go down in 2020 for the fifth consecutive year – underlined Fabio Iannò, senior vice president of Moody's – However, according to data from the European Banking Authority, their ratio of 8% remains more than double that of the European Union average, equal to 3%. We also take into account our forecasts for weak but positive growth in Italian GDP and our stable outlook on Italy's sovereign debt rating.
And again: “Italian banks will have stable or moderately better profitability in 2019 and 2020 thanks to lower wholesale financing costs, lower cost of risk and efficiency gains resulting from recent restructuring initiatives. The capital indexes look set to remain stable, with nearly all lenders reporting comfortable buffers above regulatory requirements.”
As for thewholesale debt issuance of Italian banks, “increased in 2019 from a low level in 2018 – continues Iannò – Their financing costs they declined as domestic sovereign bond spreads tightened, although these remain volatile. There profit generation is weak due to still high loan losses and high operating costs.
Also in the wake of Moody's valuations, the main bank stocks are positive in Piazza Affari: Intesa Sanpaolo + 1,6% Unicredit + 1% Bpm bank+3% (best share of the Ftse Mib, which rose by 1,2% in the same minutes) e Where's Banca + 1,8%.
At the same time, Moody's has Atlantia's rating cut from Baa3 to Ba1 and that of Autostrade per l'Italia (Aspi) from Baa2 to Baa3. The Baa2 rating of Aeroporti di Roma (Adr) has been confirmed. For all three companies the outlook remains negative. The agency explained the downgrades with persistent uncertainties about the future of the motorway concessions.
Finally, S&P Global Ratings revised the outlook on Salini Impregilo da negative a positive. The BB- rating has been confirmed, but the agency explains that an upgrade will be possible within the next year in the event of a reduction in debt thanks to the positive trend in cash flows and the refinancing of the 600 million bond maturing in 2021.
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