A recovery in Italian growth is already possible from the end of the year. This is the conviction of the general manager of the Bank of Italy, Fabrizio Saccomanni, after hearing from the Senate's Industry Commission: a recovery of the Italian economy “between the end of 2012 and the beginning of 2013” is always possible. Saccomanni reiterates the forecast provided by the Bank of Italy with the previous quarterly Economic Bulletin: between -1,5% and -1,2%. “However”, remarks Saccomanni, “it is important that the spread remains at 300 basis points” and "despite the fibrillation of recent days there is a downward trend" which is also having a positive effect on the credit market.
Obviously, “with a spread of 300 basis points, the prospects for economic growth are better than with a spread of 500 basis points”. And it shows more optimistic than the IMF which even estimates a 1,9% drop in GDP for Italy. “We are more optimistic”. he says, answering the reporters: the Monetary Fund "is more pessimistic than the European forecasters and the ECB".
As for the prospects for our accounts, “if you get close to a balanced budget it is already a big result”, says the general manager of Bank of Italy, pointing out that close to balance means a deficit below 1%. "We estimate", he says, "that there will be a strong reduction in the deficit even in adverse conditions but we need to see the developments in the economy".
