Le European car manufacturers are facing a real-time nightmare. The threat of fines stratospheric from the European Union for the failure to meet electric vehicle sales targets it is now a reality that forces them to deal with the future. Stellantis is among the hardest hit: between internal difficulties and economic uncertainty, the Italian-French giant risks suffering heavy repercussions. But it is not only the car manufacturers that are suffering: the crisis It also overwhelms the Component suppliersOver 30 jobs lost in 2024, a dramatic doubling compared to the 15 thousand cuts of 2023. The association Clepa revealed these worrying numbers.
Cars and CO2: Europe imposes heavy fines, houses risk collapse
From 2025 January XNUMX, Europe has imposed new, More severe regulations on emissions CO2 for cars. Car manufacturers are required to meet a CO2 emissions limit of 94 grams per kilometer (g/km) for each vehicle sold, a sharp drop from 116 g/km in 2024. Here's the complication: to avoid fines, which amount to 95 euros for each gram of excess CO2 for each car sold, manufacturers are forced to produce heavier electric vehicles, increasing the size of the battery, to lower the overall emissions value.
But why is all this a problem? Because at the moment, the Electric car sales are at a standstill to a paltry 13% of the European market, well below the 25% target required to avoid sanctions. This gap risks translating into devastating fines for the entire sector: the stime talk about over 15 billion euros in fines overall for the industry. In addition, to reduce the fines, car manufacturers may have to ally with producers like Tesla o Byd, diverting crucial resources for electrification and slowing down the transition process, or reducing the production of internal combustion engine vehicles, with the consequent plant closures e layoffs, creating a vicious circle that further complicates the situation. In this scenario, the transition to electric risks becoming both expensive and difficult.
EU Commission Resists: No Changes Before 2026
Despite growing concerns, the European Commission she doesn't seem to be willing to review her remission rules. The European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) had asked for a decision to be taken by the end of 2024 on a possible revision of the fines, but Brussels decided to stall. Instead of a quick decision, a "strategic dialogue" was announced that will be opened with the Commission on the future of the automotive industry. The legislative review It won't happen before 2026. In this context, Italy, with the Minister of Made in Italy Adolfo Urso, has pushed to anticipate this review, obtaining the support of several other countries. However, the President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has taken the situation personally in hand, aware of the seriousness of the problems that the industry is facing.
The supplier crisis: 30 jobs lost in 2024
If the automotive industry is facing a storm, the situation is even more critical for the Component suppliers. According to an analysis by Clepa, in 2024 job losses among automotive components suppliers in Europe doubled compared to the previous year, with over 30 thousand people losing their jobs, compared to 15 thousand in 2023. This data is part of a broader context: in four years the components sector has seen a net loss of over 58 thousand jobs.
The reasons for this dramatic decline are many: the slowdown in car sales in Europe due to the pandemic, the war in Ukraine andinflation which has eroded the competitiveness of European industries, while competition from Chinese manufacturers is growing. While large companies such as Michelin and Bosch are credited with thousands of cuts, many small businesses have been forced to close their doors or file for insolvency. The prospects for a recovery in sales are particularly slim at this time.
The components sector: 1,7 million workers and a market in difficulty
Il automotive components sector, which employs around 1,7 million people in the EU, is going through a critical phase. Demand for vehicles has collapsed, influenced by global events such as the pandemic, the war in Ukraine and inflation, with a direct impact on the competitiveness of European industries. Meanwhile, Chinese manufacturers are rapidly gaining market share. To complicate the situation, the high cost of electric vehicles has slowed their diffusion, especially in Germany, where government subsidies have fallen sharply.
According to Clepa, the transition to electric has led to a loss of internal combustion engine related jobs, with losses since 2020 far exceeding the new jobs created in electric. In 2024, electric vehicle component suppliers lost more jobs (4.680) than they created (4.450), a sign that the transition is not generating the jobs expected. A /// emblematic is that of forvia, controlled by Exor and Peugeot, which has announced the cut of 10 jobs in Europe by 2028, compared to a workforce of over 75 employees.
Stellantis: 2024 in decline in Italy with 50 thousand fewer cars
2024 was a tough year for Stellantis in Italy, with a loss of almost 50 thousand cars sold (-9,9%), falling from 502.546 to 452.615 registrations. In December, sales fell by 18,1%, with only 24.411 cars sold, and market share fell from 32% to 29%. The group's Italian brands suffered significantly: Fiat recorded a -41,15%, Lancia saw a collapse of -78,84%, and Maserati it lost 38,97%. Alfa Romeo (+ 31,81%) and Jeep (+2,77%) managed to contain the losses, but not enough to reverse the negative trend. In particular, Jeep, with the Avenger, is among the best-selling models in Italy and the first B-SUV, with a market share of 9%. Among the ex-PSA brands, Peugeot e Citroën have recorded modest increases, while Opel grew by 16,67%. Stellantis performed worse than the Italian market, which saw an overall decline of 0,5% in 2024.
The Future of the European Automotive Industry: A Race Against Time
The crisis does not only concern Italy and Europe: it also Tesla recorded its first historical decline in sales, falling to just under 1,8 million vehicles (-1,1%). So much so that yesterday the stock lost over 6% on Wall Street. Despite this, some foreign brands had positive performances: Volkswagen gained 0,6%, Renault over 10%, and Toyota a robust +26%. In Spain, however, the market saw a recovery with an increase of 7,1%, approaching the pre-Covid numbers, marking a recovery that seems far from Italy, where registrations remain lower than in 2019.
The future of the European automotive industry is uncertain and hanging by a thread. Between increasingly stringent regulations and the challenge of electric vehicles, car manufacturers will have to act quickly to avoid collapse. Will they be able to adapt or will 2025 bring new crises?
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