Between tariffs, geopolitical volatility, slowing demand and rising costs, some of the major car manufacturers they inaugurated the 2025 with the foot on the brake. The first quarter results of Stellantis, Mercedes-Benz, General Motors, Volvo and Volkswagen return a heterogeneous picture, characterized by pressure on margins and variable geometry operating trends. The dominant factor is above all strategic uncertainty. In this context, four out of five houses except Volkswagen have suspended or withdrawn full-year guidance, considering it too complex to reliably estimate the impact of new tariff measures introduced by the United States. Only the Wolfsburg-based company confirmed its annual forecasts, but specified that the results will be in the low range of the targets and that the estimates do not yet incorporate the effects of customs policies.
Adding to the complexity of the situation is the still unstable nature of the American trade line. Just yesterday, President Donald Trump announced a temporary relief of the duties on automotive, through a “flexible” formula that includes Tax credits of up to 15% for manufacturers located in the United States, and selective exemptions on steel, aluminum and components imported from Canada and Mexico. According to analysts at Equity e Intermonte, the measure was welcomed positively by the market, but It does not yet offer a stable basis for the development of solid industrial plans. The global automotive sector therefore remains in a phase of tactical suspension, where operational choices are postponed or scaled down pending greater regulatory clarity.
Stellantis: revenues down and outlook suspended. North America and uncertainty over tariffs weigh on revenues
Stellantis closed the first quarter of 2025 with net revenues of 35,8 billion eurosin decrease of 14% compared to the same period in 2024. The consolidated deliveries have decreased by 9%, reaching 1,217 million units. The main causes of the slowdown are attributable to a lower production in North America – thanks to the extension of the holidays in January – and to the Product portfolio transition phase, in addition to the contraction in volumes in light commercial vehicles in the enlarged Europe.
Despite the negative overall picture, the results are in line with market expectations and the title is positive on Piazza Affari with a gain of over 1,3%.
Signs of stability in Europe and Latin America
On the commercial front, Stellantis has shown progress in the EU30, Where the market share rose to 17,3%, up 1,9 percentage points compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. The improvement was driven by launch of key models such as Citroën C3/ëC3, Peugeot 5008 and Opel Grandland, which were joined in the first quarter of 2025 by Fiat Grande Panda, Citroën C3 Aircross and Opel Frontera. The company is now the leader in the hybrid segment (15,5% share) and second in the BEV market (13%).
In the United States, Stellantis reports a stabilization of the retail share and a strong recovery in demand: retail orders increased by82% on an annual basis in March, reaching the highest monthly level since June 2023. Sales of Jeep Grand Cherokee, Compass and Ram pickups also increased.
In the so-called “Third Engine” (South America, Middle East, Africa), the group maintained a dynamic profile: in South America the market share rose to 23,8% (+1,5 points), with improvements in Brazil, Chile and especially Argentina, where the sector benefits from the easing of import restrictions.
The quarter was also characterized by initiatives on the technological front. Stellantis has announced the debut of its system of STLA AutoDrive 1.0 autonomous driving (SAE level 3), part of an integrated suite with STLA Brain and SmartCockpit. In addition, the strategic partnership with Mistral AI for the development of a proprietary voice assistant based on artificial intelligence.
Guidance suspended: too much uncertainty with US tariffs
The most relevant element of the quarter is however the Suspension of 2025 guidance, decided in light of theuncertainty related to US tariff policy. The Trump administration has introduced a mechanism of re-modulated tariffs, with Credits up to 15% for locally assembled vehicles, but Stellantis deemed it premature to update its forecasts in the absence of a more stable picture.
The company specified that the suspension does not reflect doubts about the ability to reach the targets, but rather the impossibility of quantify the impact of the new measures on exports and supply chains. In the meantime, the ordinary dividend of 0,68 euros per share, due May 5th.
In parallel, the group is implementing a plan to Strengthen manufacturing capacity in the United States, In order to reduce dependence on imports and mitigate the effect of customs barriers.
New to within first half of 2025
Sul governance plan, the process for the Appointment of the new CEO, which – according to what was declared – will end by the first half of 2025.
“While revenues are down from a year ago, we are seeing Initial progress in our commercial relaunch efforts,” said the CFO Doug Osterman. "The North America is in the process of reactivating, while Europe shows a sequential improvement. Our diversified geographic profile is helping us navigate this complex phase, with positive contributions from non-core regions”.
Volkswagen: Revenues up but profitability under pressure. Guidance confirmed, but with caution
Volkswagen opened 2025 with a quarter of mixed results: growing revenues, orders booming, especially in the electric segment, but Operating margins and profits in sharp decline, weighed down by high costs, extraordinary effects and a still highly uncertain global context.
In the first quarter of the year, the Wolfsburg group recorded revenues of 77,6 billion euros (+2,8% on an annual basis), supported by an increase in sales (+0,9% to 2,1 million units), with positive dynamics in Europe (+4%) and South America (+17%), which offset the decline in North America (-2%) and China (-6%). Theoperating profit it went down 37% to 2,87 billion euros, with a margin reduced to 3,7% (from 6% a year ago), while theNet income decreased by 41 %, 2,19 billion. The pre-tax result also showed a decline (-39,5% to 3,1 billion).
Particularly strong demand for electric vehicles in Western Europe, with orders increasing by 64% and now accounting for more than 20% of the overall order book. Total orders in the region grew by 29% year-on-year, driven by models such as the ID.7 Tourer, Cupra Terramar, Audi Q6 e-tron and the new Porsche 911. At the same time, however, the Total group production fell by 3,2%, a sign of a possible attempt at strategic realignment aimed at containing stocks and safeguarding margins.
At the brand level, performance was mixed. generalist brands (VW, Skoda, Seat, Cupra) saw revenues grow by 8% to 35,3 billion, but the operating margin fell to 3,2% due to the greater incidence of electric vehicles and extraordinary charges. Net of these, the margin rose to 4,6%. The sector premium and luxury showed a mixed picture: Audi and Bentley recorded revenues up to 15,4 billion (+12%) and an operating profit of 537 million, while Porsche suffered, with revenues down to 7,8 billion (-4%) and profits down 44%, penalized by weak demand in China. The software unit Love increased revenues by 33% to 237 million, but widened operating losses to -755 million, due to the ongoing restructuring process.
Despite the worsening of profitability, the group highlighted progress on the liquidity front: free cash flow of the automotive division improved to -828 million euros (against -2,5 billion a year ago), while the investments remained stable to 5,5 billion. The net liquidity of the automotive sector stands at 33,2 billion, slightly down from 34,4 at the end of 2024.
Volkswagen has Full-year 2025 guidance confirmed, forecasting a turnover growth of up to 5%, an operating margin between 5,5% and 6,5% and a net cash flow between 2 and 5 billion. However, he specified that the main indicators will be in the lower part of the forecast range. The estimates do not include the impact of new US tariffs, and the group reiterated the high exposure to exogenous factors, including geopolitical tensions, trade restrictions, currency fluctuations and environmental regulations.
The CFO arno antlitz acknowledged that “the commercial success of electric models is putting pressure on margins”, and reiterated the objective of “adding a more efficient cost structure to the products”. The strategic plan includes the Reduction of the investment/revenue ratio to 10% by 2027, an acceleration on the software and digitalization front, and careful monitoring of Porsche's performance and the reorganization of Cariad.
Mercedes-Benz: Profits fall sharply and guidance withdrawn. Uncertainty over tariffs penalizes business
Mercedes-Benz has filed a particularly weak first quarter of 2025 on the earnings front, discounting the combined effect of the slowdown in global demand, regulatory pressure and the growing risk of tariffs in the United States. The German group recorded a net profit of 1,73 billion euros, down by 43 % on an annual basis, below analysts' expectations. operating profit (EBIT) it went down 41% to 2,3 billion, While the profitability of the auto division decreased 9% to 7,3%.
The decline was caused by a overall decline in global car and van sales of 7%, with strongly negative dynamics in Europe (-10%) and China (-10%), only partially offset by a slight increase in the United States (+1%). The mitigation strategy – which included increasing inventories in American plants – was not sufficient to neutralize the impact of the new US trade policy. Chinese competition and recent European environmental regulations also contributed to weighing down the situation.
In this context, the group decided to withdraw full-year 2025 financial guidance, explicitly declaring the impossibility of providing reliable forecasts in a regulatory environment subject to rapid and potentially asymmetric changes. CFO Harald Wilhelm stressed that “the tariff-related volatility and containment measures is too high", and estimated that, in the absence of corrective measures, the operating margin could be penalised up to 300 basis points in the auto division e 100 points in the van division.
The CEO Wave Källenius he described as the ongoing dialogue is “constructive” with the Trump administration, which today announced partial tariff relief for manufacturers with plants in the United States. “Mercedes-Benz is a global player. We are not afraid of competition, but we do not operate in a neutral context,” said Källenius, emphasizing the issue of competitive inequality linked to the commercial structure.
Despite pressure on the operational front, Mercedes-Benz confirms a solid financial position: the Industrial net liquidity rose to 33,3 billion euros (from 31,4 billion at the end of 2024), while the Operating cash flow increased to $2,4 billion, an improvement compared to the previous year. Capital resilience represents a key element of stability in a phase in which operational visibility is limited.
According to Wilhelm, the launch of the new CLA – expected in the coming months – marks the beginning of a “multi-year product and technology offensive“, which aims to strengthen the brand's positioning in the premium segment, with particular attention to strategic markets, including China.
Volvo: Profit halved and estimates withdrawn. Restructuring begins in the United States
The Volvo Cars joins the growing group of European manufacturers struggling on the North American front. In the first quarter of 2025, the Swedish automaker – controlled by Chinese Geely – recorded a operating profit of SEK 1,9 billion (approximately 165 million euros), in sharp drop of 60% compared to 4,7 billion in the same period of the previous year. The group attributed the decline largely toImpact of new US tariffs on cars imported from Europe, which severely impact Volvo's business model, based on centralized production.
At the same time, management announced a cost-cutting plan of 18 billion Swedish kronor (approximately $1,87 billion), theexit from the perimeter financial forecasts for the next two years and a profound reorganization of activities in the United States, with the creation of a new “Americas” business unit and the appointment of a new operations manager for the continent.
The new ceo Hakan samuelsson – who returned to the helm after the removal of former CEO Jim Rowan – said the company will mainly affect the employee workforce, in order to streamline the corporate structure. “We need to become more efficient in white-collar functions,” Samuelsson said, implying that the plan will involve targeted layoffs and a rationalisation of industrial investments, the effects of which will only be fully seen from 2026.
Volvo also aims to exploit synergies with parent company Geely, sharing suppliers and supplies, with an estimated contribution of at least 3 billion kroner to the overall recovery plan. “It would be a waste not to use these synergies, which are a unique advantage of our structure,” Samuelsson stressed.
Sul Strategic Plan, Volvo abandons – at least in part – the logic of centralized production and the single global platform. “The era of the global car company, producing on one continent and selling on the other, seems to be over,” commented Samuelsson. The new approach includes the autonomy of the US and Chinese poles, with product lines dedicated to different regional markets, also in response to the growing diversification of consumer preferences.
In this context, Volvo confirmed the expansion of the Charleston (South Carolina) plant, where the production of the electric EX90 will be joined by a new model – probably a mid-range plug-in hybrid SUV – more in line with US demand. The arrival in the US of the EX30, currently imported from Europe, is expected soon, but even the American EX90 continues to suffer heavy tariff penalties, as most of the components still come from the European continent. Despite the specific difficulties of the US market, Samuelsson reiterated the group's strategic commitment toelectrification, arguing that “there are no alternatives” to the transition to low-emission engines, particularly in demand in Europe and China. The aim remains to remain competitive even outside the United States, where the green transition is proceeding at a faster pace.
General Motors: Results Above Expectations, but Outlook Delayed. Expected Clarity on Tariffs
Even overseas, the situation remains complex. General Motors presents a scenario not dissimilar to its European competitors. The Detroit company closed the accounts for the first quarter of 2025 with results above analysts' expectations, but decided to postpone annual guidance update, pending clarification on the actual impact of the new US tariff policies. The American automotive group has registered revenues of $44 billion, up by 2,3 % compared to the same period of the previous year, and a adjusted earnings per share of $2,78, slightly above the market consensus, but in 6,6% drop year-on-year.
The Adjusted Ebit stood at 3,49 billion dollars (-9,8%), while Net profit fell 6,6%, marking a slowdown compared to the expansionary dynamics of the previous quarters. The performance was supported, in part, by a rush to purchases in the retail segment ahead of the expected increase in price lists, triggered precisely by concerns about tariffs.
The management of the group, led by the CEO Mary Barra, announced that the new guidance will be presented on May 1st, during a conference call with investors. The original forecast for the whole of 2025 did not incorporate the potential impact of tariffs, recently introduced or remodeled by the Trump administration, and which could significantly alter the competitive landscape. The choice to postpone the update reflects the need to assess more precisely the actual scope of customs measures, which could impact industrial costs, supply chains and price positioning in key segments.
