La Australian economic performance it has been particularly good in recent years compared to more advanced economies and despite the unstable global economy. This was mainly due to a investment boom in the mining sector driven by strong demand, particularly from China. However, as published by Atradius, GDP growth slowed down in 2013 to 2,4%, compared to 3,6% in the previous year, due to lower growth in consumption and the appreciation of the currency following the reduction in spending on welfare and public services and the simultaneous increase in tax burden. Furthermore, the decrease in investments in mining (-14% in 2014 and -22% in 2015) should be influenced by the progressive completion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exploitation projects. Conversely, construction and consumer spending are recovering.
In the first quarter of 2014, exports recorded an increase. La Reserve Bank of Australia kept its benchmark interest rate at a record low (2,5%) since August 2013, in an attempt to stimulate a new wave of economic growth, particularly in the non-mining sectors. It is expected for this year an increase in GDP growth of 2,9% and 2,6% in 2015. Nonetheless, the Australian economy is in a phase of transition: investment in the mining sector is declining, while the mass production and export of raw materials such as iron, coal and LNG are booming and giving a increasing contribution to the dynamics of GDP. However, this may not be enough to return the economy's growth rate to its previous trend: indeed it will one is needed recovery of investment in non-mining in order to ensure sustained economic growth in the long term.
Unemployment it rose last year to 5,6% from 5,2% in 2012, when the structural transition of the mining sector has created frictional unemployment which will need time to be absorbed. In this context, unemployment should increase moderately in 2014 (to 5,8%). Positive news from private consumption, with moderate growth in 2013 (+2%) and forecasts of a progressive increase to 2,2% in 2014 and 3,1% next year.
