The tension on the Italian debt market is still rising. In anticipation of the decisive Treasury auction, which this morning will try to place BTPs for nine billion euros, the spread has returned to making itself felt with a vertical surge at the opening. The high for the day - for the moment - was reached at 11, at 521 basis points.
BTP AUCTION, THE EURO THE TREASURY HOPES FOR THE BOT'S BIS
BUT THE EURO SHAKES. AND THE BANKS ARE WATCHING
Speculation aims at the big target: theeuro, on the eve of the tenth birthday of the European currency which made its debut on 2 January 2002. After the positive outcome of the BoT auction, one could have hoped for a less painful end of the year. But, to overturn the forecasts, the budget of the ECB: after disbursing 489 billion euros over three years to 523 European banks, loans to institutions rose by 214 billion euros to 879 billion in the week ending 23 December alone. The overall ECB budget increased by 239 billion to 2.730 billion, a level never reached before and up by more than 553 billion compared to three months ago. In short, the banks of the euro area are continuing the investment strike. Better to park at 0,2% at ECB deposits than to take on even the slightest risk. At this rate, the recession risks being even worse than already feared.
And so, selling on the single currency suddenly rained down in mid-afternoon, losing positions against the dollar to 1,295 from 1,306 yesterday evening. The single currency is at a 10-year low against the yen at 100,8. Thus fears about the auction of tea have revivedItalian government documents with longer maturities (3 and 10 years) of 8,5-9 billion scheduled for this morning, a much more demanding test than the one successfully completed on the six-month BOTs. On the eve, the yield of the 10-year BTP stood at 6,92% (+3 basis points), the yield with the bund is 511 basis points (26 basis points more than the early afternoon levels).
La Milan Stock Exchange, as was inevitable, thus burned the gains accumulated during the day, closing at -0,85%. But, to underline the systemic nature of yesterday's decline, things went even worse in Frankfurt and Madrid, down by 1,5-1,6%. Paris lost 0,4%.
WEATHERBAG. FRAGILE CLIMATE, LURKING BAD WEATHER. Wall Street it interrupted the year-end mini rally after the slide of the euro. Me too'Asia he looks with apprehension at the convulsions in the euro area, in the well-founded fear that the malaise is much deeper than the already difficult Italian problems. In this context, the drop in gold takes second place, in parallel with the recovery of the dollar. And the downward correction of oil, despite the growing tension on the Iran front: the drop in European demand weighs more than Tehran's threats to close the Strait of Hormuz.
Except for happy surprises on the front of the BTP we are heading towards a gray end of the year, a worthy synthesis of a melancholy 2011 in which the price list lost a good quarter of its value (25,8%). By now the capitalization of Piazza Affari is equal to only 20% of the Italian GDP.
Difficult that Standard & Poor's 500 make it. After yesterday's drop (index at 1,3%, Dow Jones down 1,1%, Nasdaq -1,34%) a jump of 2,6% would be needed to close the year with a positive sign. Also in this case the final result, set at around 1282, would be much lower than the forecasts of the experts last January who set the 2011 target at 1,371. Today's futures forecast a weak upside. Much will depend on the weekly unemployment data. Almost everything from the outcome of the Italian Btp auction.
CHINA, LAND OF IPO. AND MIUCCIA HAS A PARTY. Asia's overtaking of the Western economy is confirmed by the rain of money collected by freshmen on the Chinese stock exchanges: 73 billion dollars, double that of the USA. Of course, among the IPOs there is also that of Prada whose effects were felt on Miuccia Prada's Luxembourg safe: 54,4 million in profits thanks to "income from equity investments".
Meanwhile, due to fears about Europe, the Tokyo Stock Exchange is heading towards a gray ending: the Nikkei 225 index reports a drop of 0,59%, the Hang Sign of Hong Kong drops by 0,91%. Meanwhile, the yen takes another small step towards 100 against the euro: this morning the single currency is worth 100,36 yen, the lowest in the ten-year history of the European currency.
FONDIARIA SAI, NEW DECREASE. TODAY THE BOD
FINAL IN RED OF MANAGED SAVINGS
At the end of the session Milan Stock Exchange shows up with the banks down again: Understanding -0,4% Pop.Milan -0,8%, Monte Paschi -0,9%, Ubi -2,6% and BancoPopolare -3,9%. Unicredit fell by 0,9%: during 2011 the share in Piazza Cordsuio suffered a drop of 55%.
Among the insurance Generali lost 1,7%, Unipol rose by 0,5%. Fondiaria-Sai it marked a new all-time low at 0,615 euro (-5,3%). The company's board of directors will be held today, the second in seven days, dedicated to the answers to be sent to Isvap on matters of governance and capital solidity, the two points raised by the authority in the letter of November 24 in which it asked for a strengthening of the solvency ratio and the stop to double governance assignments with the holding company Premafin. Meanwhile Unicredit and Mediobanca are knocking on the door of potential subscribers to the capital increase. Names are made Hourglass, Sator, Apax ee of the Genoese Malacalza family.
Bottom ending for Azimuth-0,5%, positive for most of the session. Yesterday Assogestioni released data on the system's funding in November: -8,5 billion, which brings the negative balance up to 31,3 billion for the first 11 months of the year.
Negative closures also for Telecom Italy -0,3%, Enel -0,9%, Eni -0,7%. Mediaset lost 3%. Positive thrill for Campari, up 1,5%.
