Good demand and yields at historic highs for the latest government bond auction. The auction - communicates the Bank of Italy - involved 5-year BTPs with an amount offered of 3 billion and a request for 4,251 billion. The gross annual yield rose to 6,47%, from 6,3% at the last auction, reaching an all-time high since euro entry.
Piazza Affari begins its run of uncertainty this morning, down by 0,3%.
THE FED: NO STIMULUS, DISAPPOINTMENT ON WALL STREET. TRIAL BY FIRE FOR BTPs. CAPITALS EN ROUTE TO LONDON
But what a swing of emotions for those who invest in this feverish Stock Exchange: yesterday the FtseMib index fluctuated throughout the session between a maximum increase of 1,4% and a maximum decrease of 1,2% on the wave of news, rumors, sorties by politicians and diplomats. A triumph of explanations in the conditional to justify losses in the indicative.
WEATHERBAG: BRING AN UMBRELLA. Today's session could follow yesterday's script: a cautious, reflective start while awaiting the outcome of the Btp auction. The performance of Italian government bonds is destined to influence the second part of the morning. Then other factors will come into play on the European chessboard. And not only.
TRIAL BY FIRE FOR BTPs. Great expectations for the outcome of the auction: 3 billion five-year bonds will be offered. At the same time the German auction will be held (amount of 5 billion). Still suffering for Italian BTPs, with the yield rising by 12 basis points to 6,62%. The spread with the Bund widened to 465 basis points. A bad sign in view of this morning's auction on the five-year bond. There is optimism to foster the positive outcome of the Spanish test. But, on the other hand, rumors have spread according to which Angela Merkel has rejected the request to increase the endowment of the ESM, the newborn permanent European fund which in 2013 will take the place of the current and precarious state-saving fund EFSF. Under current agreements, the fund will have a firepower of 500 billion euros.
HELP MY SPREAD IS WIDENING. The Ministry of the Economy has informed operators that a significant widening of the differential of the Bto/Bund spread is expected for tomorrow. The exclusively technical reasoning can be traced back to an update of the information systems of one of the main electronic platforms which, starting tomorrow, will adopt the Btp expiring in March 2022 for the calculation of the Spread, which is currently less liquid than the previous benchmark expiring in September 2021.
OPEC'S UNKNOWN CRUDE OIL. The range of bets on crude oil has never been so wide. A large number of operators are betting that prices will fall to 50 dollars a barrel in 2012, thanks to the recession. A no less sizeable party is aiming for a boom to 150 dollars, in the wake of tensions in the Middle East (leading Iran). Against this backdrop, an OPEC summit is being held today in Vienna under the banner of uncertainty. Yesterday the International Energy Agency warned the cartel against the risk of a supply cut. Yesterday the rumor spread, later denied, of Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategically important crossing point between the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean through which approximately 18% of the crude oil consumed throughout the world.
FED: RATES STOPPED UNTIL 2013, EXCHANGES DOWN. The US economy is growing albeit at a "moderate pace". Therefore it is not wise to proceed, for the moment, with new stimuli. The last meeting of 2011 of the FOMC, the executive committee of the Fed ended without surprises. Nine out of ten councilors voted to keep interest rates at yesterday's levels, at 0,25%. Only Charles Evans, chairman of the Illinois Fed, voted against insisting, as he has done for months, that the Fed should do more to push the US on the road to recovery. Wall Street. Which sees the longed-for QE3 fading away, has reacted with a decisive decrease: the Dow Jones is down by 0,55%, the Standard & Poor's 500 scores -0,8%, the Nasdaq -1,26%. Meanwhile, US ten-year Tbonds slip to 2,03%: the safe haven of the season is the dollar. Asian indexes are also down: Nikkei 225 – 0,59%, Hong Kong -0,31
FLYING EURO, FLYING LONDON. In the end, the Ftse/Mib index closed down 0,3% at 14.85. Negative closure also for the other European Stock Exchanges: Paris -0,3%, Frankfurt -0,2%, Madrid -0,9%. The exception is London which went on its own going up by 1%, while the pound, unlike the euro (1,3088, the lowest since January) rose against the dollar: by now, it seems. The European Union and Great Britain have taken two paths destined to become increasingly distant. As a result, the 2,07-year Queen's Gilt hit an all-time low yesterday at 4%, XNUMX bps below the XNUMX-year Bund.
FONDIARIA STILL IN THE SIGHT. CADE UNICREDIT
FINMECCANICA WAITS FOR OXYGEN FROM JAPAN
At the center of the attention of Piazza Affari continues to be Fondiaria-Sai (-5,3%), which fell after various attempts to rebound. The fate of the company will be decided on December 21 by the board of directors who will examine the work of Goldman Sachs in charge of studying possible actions to strengthen the assets, including a possible capital increase. Premafin has convened a board of directors today to evaluate the mandate of Banca Leonardo as advisor. The assignment is linked to the choices that the holding company is called upon to make in relation to the subsidiary Fonsai, which is grappling with the need to strengthen its capital. Banca Leonardo already assists the Ligrestis in restructuring the debt of Sinergia and Imco.
Generali lost 1,1%. Rating agency Fitch downgraded Leo's financial strength ratings from AA- to A-. Mostly loss-making banks. But not all. Unicredit fell by 3,7%, MontePaschi -3,3%, Ubi -2,7%. Conversely, Banco Popolare +2% and Intesa +0,3% were positive. The Ca' de Sass bank yesterday closed the dispute with the Revenue Agency with 270 million.
The acronym, albeit discounted, is good for Fiat (+0,2%) and Fiat Industrial (+1,2%). car contract. Sharp decline for Finmeccanica -2,8%. The Japanese government's decision regarding the 100 jet order should arrive within days. The Eurofighter, the F18 and the F35 remained on the list of eligible suppliers. According to what was reported by a local newspaper, denied by the defense ministry, the order would have been assigned to the F35 even if it is more expensive and without local production. The order could be worth around 2 billion dollars.
According to the Financial Times, BG and Eni have reached an agreement with Kazakhstan, which provides for the purchase of 10% of the maxi-field of Karachaganak by the Kazakh state company, KMG for 1 billion dollars. Conversely, the Kazakh state would undertake to withdraw all tax claims.
Recovery of Diasorin (+4%) after three days of strong decline.
