A real one could arrive in the next few years rain of hiring. In fact, between 2024 and 2028 the Italian labor market will be able to express itself a requirement of between 3,1 and 3,6 million employed, depending on the macroeconomic scenario considered. This is what emerges from the report on "Forecasts of employment and professional needs in Italy in the medium term" updated for the five-year period 2024-2028, developed within the Excelsior information system, created by Unioncamere in collaboration with the Ministry of Labour.
Hiring: the needs region by region
The study shows how the 2023 employment stock could grow over the five-year period from a minimum of 238 thousand units in the negative scenario up to a maximum of 722 thousand employed in a more favorable context. Expressing the greatest need, equal to 669 thousand employed in the positive scenario, will be the Lombardia, where over 18% of the entire national demand will be concentrated.
They follow, but at a considerable distance, the Lazio (356 thousand units equal to 9,8%), the Campania (320 thousand units, 8,8%), theEmilia Romagna and Lombardy (306 thousand units, 8,4%) and the Veneto (302 thousand units, 8,3%).
“The actual impact of the resources allocated with the National Recovery and Resilience Plan will evidently affect the forecasts”, explains Unioncamere, which underlines how the majority of the needs are determined - 2,9 million units in the five-year period, equal to a of 80% in the positive scenario and 92% in the negative one – it will above all be the need to replace departing workers from the job market.
Hiring: the most in-demand professions by 2028
The report highlights how, in the period considered and both in the public and private sectors, approximately 41% of the overall requirement will concern managers, specialists and technicians (between 1,3 and 1,5 million units). They follow commercial and service professionswhich will absorb 19% of the total requirement. And then: the employees 15%, the specialized workersi 11% ei plant operators the 6%.
“Compared to the current professional structure, specialist and technical professions will therefore be destined to grow, but also clerical ones (due to the demand from the PA), while specialized workers and plant operators will continue to decrease”, we read in the report.
Going forward with the data, the study shows that approximately 38% of the employment needs in the five-year period will concern professions with tertiary education (degree, Its Academy or Afam diploma), 4% profiles with a high school diploma and 46% personnel in possession of a technical-professional upper secondary education (five-year diplomas and four-year or three-year IeFP).
Hiring: Stem workers are sought, but the mismatch is high
In particular, in tertiary education the need for people with will be high a qualification in the STEM field, an acronym for Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics, which will determine a significant mismatch compared to the presence of young people with this type of training who will enter the job market.
For all the STEM paths they could between 8 thousand and 17 thousand young people are missing every year. As regards the other areas, a lack of supply is expected for the teaching and training area (between 9 thousand and 12 thousand young people will be missing), economics-statistics (5-11 thousand) and medical-healthcare (around 7 thousand).
A lack of supply is also expected for secondary technical-professional training, which will concern both the five-year courses (between 13 thousand and 42 thousand young people per year will be missing) and those of Professional Education and Training (with an offer capable of covering just over half of the needs).
Green and digital: the trends that will impact the demand for personnel
Ultimately, the macro trends of the markets will also have an impact green and digital transitions will affect the demand for personnel, leading both to an increase in the green and digital skills required and to birth of new professional figures. It is estimated that between 2024 and 2028 the possession of green skills will be asked with at least intermediate importance to over 2,3 million workers (almost two thirds of the five-year requirement) and the digital skills to 2,1 million employed (over 58% of the total requirement).
Unioncamere: “In 2023 the mismatch cost 43,9 billion”
“The reduction of the mismatch between job supply and demand represents one of the economic policy priorities to be addressed at this time”, underlines the president of Unioncamere, Andrea Prete. “The costs deriving from the lower added value that it will be possible to produce in the various economic sectors due to the delayed or failed inclusion of the necessary professional profiles in companies are in fact increasing precisely due to the progressive increase in the difficulty of finding personnel. The estimate for 2023 of cost of the mismatch is 43,9 billion, figure corresponding to approximately 2,5% of the Italian gross domestic product. To reverse the trend, which has many reasons to exist, starting with the demographic trend, we must work more and more on the orientation front and bring training courses closer to the great transformations underway".
