The Deloitte report that we propose presents an x-ray of the art market highlighting the current situation of how collecting is behaving in our country and in the world. Surely the geopolitical and economic aspects will continue to influence trends, while it will be the generational renewal that will redraw the profile of the new collector who is increasingly active in purchasing at auction houses, online and less in galleries compared to previous generations.
Art Market in 2024: Global Turnover Down 26,2% from 2023
In 2024, global demand for collectibles recorded another decline caused by the continuation of international tensions, which led to a reduction in the ability of auction houses to source quality works in a more cautious market, with collectors often not inclined to take risks. These elements led to a contraction in overall turnover of -26,2% compared to 2023, which affected painting, but also “Passion Assets”. An isolated case is collectible design which, instead, thanks to the interest of young people and more accessible prices than painting, is experiencing a period of growth.
Generational shift: the weight of new GenZ and Millennial buyers grows
The analysis highlights the importance of the generational shift underway, with younger buyers – Gen Z and Millennials – who are redefining the market’s priorities. These new buyers show a preference for contemporary art and luxury goods, often operating with smaller budgets than previous generations. In continuity with 2024, the main international auction houses record over 30% of new buyers belong to these age groups. The previous generations”, including in particular the “baby boomers”, continue to represent the main pool from which auction houses can draw to ensure an influx of quality works that are historicized and already “criticized” on the market.
New York and London and the Middle East
Geographically, the market has maintained its center of gravity in the United States, with New York confirming its position as the hub of the sector thanks to strong local demand. Even in Asia, despite China's economic difficulties, other areas such as South Korea, Taiwan and Japan are emerging as new cultural hubs. Paris, thanks to advantageous tax policies and investments by operators in the sector, continues to gain ground on London in the European art market, with particular reference to the modern and contemporary segments. Even in the Middle East, the art market continues to grow significantly thanks to its wealth: Christie's will open a branch in Riyadh in 2025, while in February 2025 Sotheby's held an auction in the ancient city of Diriyah, focusing on the intersection between art and luxury.
US Market Between Duties and Tax Benefits
The US market continues to lead the way in terms of volumes for the art market. The new generation of UHNW (Ultra High Net Worth Individual) collectors, largely linked to the technology industry, is imposing different tastes and purchasing methods compared to the past. More than historicized works, these collectors look at contemporary art, luxury collectibles and objects that belonged to famous people, showing a clear detachment from traditional trends. With the arrival of “Trumpnomics”, moreover, among the issues at stake are possible duties, cuts to culture, but also tax benefits that could lead to a recovery in the performance of the art market.
Artificial Intelligence: Record for a work created by a robot with AI
2024 is marked by the full entry of artificial intelligence into the art market: a painting produced by the humanoid robot Ai-Da, which uses AI to paint, was sold by Sotheby's for 1,1 million dollars. It is the first time that a major has bet on the brush strokes of an algorithm, with excellent market results, considering that the painting started with an auction base of between 120.000 and 180.000 dollars. Artificial intelligence, therefore, emerges not only as a powerful tool for market analysis, but also as a new medium for the production of works of art - a phenomenon that, as the report shows, is not without risks in terms of the potential standardization of artistic production.
Painting: turnover decline of -25,6%
In 2024, the global painting market, which represents approximately 70% of the global collectibles market, continued the slowdown that began in 2023. The main international auction houses were impacted by geopolitical and social uncertainties, recording results below expectations. The increase in the unsold rate of painting auctions, which in 2024 settled at 17,2% (16,8% in 2023), and the concurrent drop in the average hammer price, which went from 36,7 to 27,1 million dollars in 2024, confirms the prudent attitude of collectors and the difficulty of auction houses in presenting quality lots in their catalogues. The turnover of painting thus settled at just over 5,2 billion dollars, with a decrease of -25,6% compared to 2023.
Top lot 2024: “L'empire des lumières” by Magritte
The ranking of the 5 top lots of 2024 also confirms the decline in enthusiasm and the greater caution of collectors, both from the point of view of purchases and above all from the point of view of the introduction of high-quality works on the market. In first place in the ranking of the 5 most expensive works sold by the three majors is René Magritte, with “L'empire des lumières” (1954), sold for 121,2 million dollars at Christie's in New York. The sale set a new record for the artist, surpassing the previous record, also set by Christie's in London in 2022 for “L'empire des lumières” (1961), sold for 79,9 million dollars. A century after the publication of the Surrealist Manifesto, René Magritte's work has become the most expensive of the movement ever sold at auction.
Passion Asset Down
In 2024, the climate of caution and reflection in the art and collectibles market has also penalised the market for Passion Assets, which includes jewelry and watches, antiques, furniture and design, wines and spirits and photographs. The number of million-dollar auctions in this sector decreased from 191 in 2023 to 186 in 2024, a factor that contributed to the reduction in overall turnover, which settled at around 2,1 billion dollars compared to 2,6 in 2023 (-22,3%).
Sports Memorabilia
Among passion assets, sports memorabilia is experiencing extraordinary expansion, attracting new and often young buyers. In 2024, exceptional sales included the record set by Heritage Auctions, which sold for a record $24,1 million a jersey of baseball star Babe Ruth. In February, a set of shoes worn by Michael Jordan during the NBA Finals sold for $8 million at Sotheby's in New York, while Kobe Bryant's locker reached $2,9 million.
More and more transactions for collectible wines and spirits
In 2024, interest in fine bottles and the passion for wine and spirits also suffered from the downturn that involved the entire market. The year was characterized by a lower number of million-dollar auctions (28 compared to 35 in 2023), which contributed to the reduction in turnover, which went from approximately 139,9 to 81,3 million dollars in 2024. Despite the general decline in demand, significant regional differences and emerging opportunities are noted. Italy, for example, maintained a position of stability, while regions with more dynamic markets, such as Burgundy, recorded contractions. In addition, there was an increase in the volume of trade in fine wines, growing by +7,9% from 2023.
Watches and jewelry
The jewelry and watch market has seen unprecedented developments over the past three years, but the complexities that have marked 2024 have generated a decline in enthusiasm, making it clear that luxury brands need to redefine their strategies, with an increasingly marked focus on the combination of tradition and modernity. Despite this, the strength of this sector remains significant with a positive variation of +2006% since the first observation period (first half of 109,2). A positive signal also comes from the drop in the average unsold level, which went from 12,6% to 7,3%, confirming the ability of auction houses to reserve “live” auctions for the most valuable lots. Among the three big names in the market, the undisputed queen of watch and jewelry auctions remains Phillips, which recorded +8,3% compared to 2023 performances.
The collectible photography
The photography market remains a niche arena. Many collectors continue to buy directly from trusted galleries and photographers, turning to auctions mainly for exceptional pieces. The photography sector also recorded a decline in the number of million-dollar auctions in 2024 and, consequently, in overall turnover, which went from 30,9 to 24,4 million in 2024, with a decrease of 20,9%. Interesting to note, however, the contraction in the average unsold rate, which fell from 25,4% in 2023 to 20,0% in 2024, confirming, as for other segments, the good ability of the majors to propose high-quality lots in "live" or hybrid sales, leaving the medium-low range lots in the numerous virtual auctions of the sector.
Antiques market: timeless charm
In contrast to the entire art and collectibles market, the antique collectibles sector has maintained a certain attractiveness, demonstrating how the timeless charm of antiques continues to conquer hearts and wallets around the world. Total turnover stood at approximately 675,3 million dollars, up +7,5% compared to 2023, also thanks to the increase in the number of million-dollar auctions. The figure, although still lower than the values of pre-pandemic years, shows a certain resilience of the sector, confirmed by the moderate reduction in the average unsold rate, which went from 22,7% to 22,0%.
Furniture and Design on the collectors' shopping list
Design is one of the most appreciated goods by collectors today, a “luxury” to be indulged in to embellish domestic spaces, often making these goods dialogue with works of art and other collectibles. European and Italian design remain the most appreciated at an international level, with particular attention from collectors around the world especially to “limited series” and prototypes. Thanks to exceptional catalogues, in 2024 the Arredi&Design Index recovered the -41,8% loss recorded in 2023, marking an overall +103,1%. An exceptional result, compared to an almost unchanged number of “live” or hybrid million-dollar auctions, with the simultaneous growth of the overall turnover (+20,5%, from 187,6 to approximately 226,1 million dollars). The average unsold rate also confirmed the positive moment of the segment, going from 15,2% to 11,0%.
Conference Statements
"In 2024, on the one hand, there was a slowdown in performance, with the second consecutive year of negative results compared to the historical record of 2022, influenced by the geopolitical turbulence that led sellers and buyers to a reflective phase; on the other hand, the market began a process of profound transformation, driven above all by the entry into the sector of a new generation of collectors, younger and with evolving tastes”, explains Ernesto Lanzillo, Partner and Leader of Deloitte Private. “The new generations of buyers – especially Gen Z and Millennials – are progressively changing the dynamics of the sector, redrawing the profile of the collector. These new players stand out for their greater propensity towards contemporary art and luxury goods, as well as generally operating with smaller budgets than traditional collectors. The main international auction houses confirm the trend: over 30% of new buyers in 2024 fall into these age groups.” Continue Barbara Tagliaferri, Art&Finance Coordinator of Deloitte Italy. “The evolution of the market, driven by the generational shift, also involves a growing interest in Passion Assets, i.e. collectibles other than works of art, as demonstrated by the growth of over +20% in design auction turnover. Another major development in 2024 is the full entry of artificial intelligence into the art market, with a work created by a humanoid robot for over 1 million dollars. AI is therefore taking on an increasingly central role not only as a tool for analyzing and forecasting market trends, but also as a new artistic medium, however, bringing to light the risk of a possible standardization of creative processes” He claims Roberta Ghilardi, Art&Finance Manager. " The international art market is going through a phase of profound transformation, driven by economic, technological and generational factors that are redefining its dynamics. The changing economic conditions, the competition with other alternative risk investments, including start-ups linked to the world of artificial intelligence, have made investments in art less speculative, penalizing global turnover for the second consecutive year, after the sensational result obtained in 2022”, he claims Pietro Ripa, co-author of the Report and Group Manager of Fideuram.
