The dreaded domino effect didn't happen. The collapse of the Archegos family office has apparently not had systemic consequences. Credit Suisse and Nomura, the banks most involved, mourn billionaire losses (at least 6 billion), but the sector is much more solid than in the years of the crisis. Embarrassment remains for a mess which, in theory, could not happen, given the investments in risk control made by all the big names. Yet Billy Wang, the promoter of Archegos already convicted of inside trading in 2012 (in theory prevented from operating by law), managed to build speculative positions for around fifty billion dollars (estimate of the Financial Times) operating only on derivatives and managing to hide the dimensions of his crazy bet from the majority. And this casts an uneasy shadow over the markets that echoes behind the run of the dollar and yields.
Contrasted this morning the price lists of Asia. The MSCI Asia Pacific index is down 0,1%, Tokyo's Nikkei is on par, Hong Kong's Hang Seng is up 1%, the CSI 300 index of Shanghai and Shenzhen are up 0,9% , the Kospi of Seoul 1%. Mumbai BSE Sensex Index +1%. Sydney's S&P ASX 200 -0,7%.
The political temperature on the eastern front is hotter and hotter. Japan and the United States have issued a joint note on the desire to guarantee freedom of navigation in Taiwan's waters in response to Chinese pressure.
Vietnam closes the first quarter of 2021 with a 4,7% GDP growth.
THE US 2020-YEAR AT JANUARY XNUMX LEVELS
The upward pressures are back on the yields of the 1,745-year Treasury Notes, which this morning went as high as 4% yield, +2020 basis points. The benchmark US government bond is back to levels not seen since January 2,3. In a recent report, Goldman Sachs says that the financial system could enter stress conditions if the XNUMX-year bond reaches XNUMX% yield before summer. If, on the other hand, the movement towards the same objective were slower, there would be no major problems, also because the inflationary pressure should subside.
The dollar runs, a safe haven in times of tension: 110 against the yen, at 1,1763 against the euro.
NASDAQ IN RED AFTER FIVE MONTHS
Little move Wall Street: Dow Jones +0,3% thanks to Boeing; S&P 500 -0,09%. The Nasdaq was heavier (-0,7%), which is starting to close March in negative territory as it hasn't happened for five months.
President Joe Biden has promised that 19% of adults in the United States will be able to book the vaccination by April 90: by that date the pharmacies able to administer the vaccine will have doubled.
Tomorrow, US President Joe Biden is ready to announce in Pittsburgh part of his $3 trillion "Build back better" plan to revive the country's infrastructure.
WTI oil is little moved, at 61,7 dollars a barrel, in anticipation of the OPEC summit on Thursday. Gold down 0,3% to $1.710.
THE EUROSTOXX 50 AT THE HIGHEST SINCE 2008, LIQUIDITY AT THE TOP
Without jerks but with the power of a diesel, the EuroStoxx 50 index (+0,4%) advances to its thirteen-year high. Positive signs, moreover, are not lacking: a note from the Eurozone outlook edited by Istat together with the German Ifo and the Swiss Kof notes that "economic activity has fallen less than expected and that a recovery in activity is expected for the second quarter". The light euro, still below the 1,18 threshold against the dollar, helps. Meanwhile, EU Commissioner Thierry Breton goes so far as to predict that Europe should have vaccinated a sufficient number of people in the summer, perhaps around mid-July, to reach a level of "global immunity". Yet uncertainty remains strong, as evidenced by the level of liquidity, around 4.000 billion, which translates into deposits with the ECB for 608,278 billion, taxed at 0,50%.
MILAN +0,12%, FRANKFURT RECORD
Piazza Affari gains 0,12% and closes at 24.421 points. Frankfurt (+0,6%) marks an all-time high. Progress also in Paris (+0,45%) and Amsterdam (+0,19%), while Madrid lost 0,11%. London drops by 0,07% on the day when the United Kingdom can celebrate "zero infections".
CREDIT SUISSE DOES NOT SINK IN ZURICH
The misadventures of Billy Hwang's Archegos Capital have claimed victims even among the big names in finance hit by the impossibility of coping with the margin calls accumulated by the family office. The highest price (yet to be quantified) was paid by Crédit Suisse (-13,83%) and the Japanese Nomura (-14%), which financed the billionaire speculations, but among the suspects there is also Deutsche Bank (-3,32 ,0,22%). The losses of the institutes did not damage the Zurich stock exchanges too much (-XNUMX%) and the Dax.
SPREAD TO 98 ON THE EVE OF THE AUCTION
The Italian secondary widens the decline at the end. The spread between Btp and Bund rates on the 10-year segment stands at 98 basis points from 96. The ten-year rate is 0,63% from 0,61%. The market is focused on today's medium-long auctions in which the Treasury is offering a maximum of 8,5 billion euros in 5-year and 10-year BTPs and in the April 2026 CCTEU. Yields are expected to fall for the five-year bond, which at the close it was trading at around 0,03% from 0,11% in the last auction and up for the ten-year, quoted at around 0,691% from 0,604% in the mid-February syndicated placement. The launch of a new Btp Futura has been announced, which will be placed from 19 to 23 April 2021, and will have a duration of 16 years.
POSTE ITALIANE AT THE TOP, FOR BARCLAYS IT'S OVRTWEIGHT
The race for Poste Italiane (+2,18%) does not stop, among other things a strategic partner in the vaccine campaign: in the last 30 days the stock has gained 15%. At the end of last week, Barclays started hedging Poste with an overweight rating and a target price of 14 euros.
For the experts, there are three elements in support of their opinion on the stock: distribution of financial services, potential for business-to-consumer shipments and outlook on the dividend. “Wealth management is the objective of the new industrial plan”, add the experts. The stock, according to the broker, trades at a discount compared to the weighted average of its competitors. Intesa San Paolo also recently raised the target price of the share from 9,7 to 12,3 euro, confirming the add rating.
TELECOM, THE AXIS IN FOOTBALL WORKS WITH DAZN
Telecom is also brilliant (+2%), supported by Dazn's contract with the Football League. The company led by Luigi Gubitosi has a technical-distribution partnership agreement on the rights to broadcast Serie A championship matches for the next three seasons. According to Mediobanca Securities, “thanks to the agreement, Tim will have the opportunity to increase the penetration of its ultra-broadband through one of the most popular premium contents, such as Serie A”.
THEY RUN OIL AND UTILITIES
The oil and oil service sector did well afterwards the reopening of the Suez Canal and pending Thursday's OPEC meeting: Tenaris +0,55%, Eni +1,13%, Saipem -0,26%. Utilities performed well: Italgas +1,45%, Terna +0,93% and Snam +0,72%. Banks and financials trade quite flat.
CREVAL REJECTS AGRICOLE: "UNFAIR PRICE"
Of note is Azimut (+0,31%), which announced an important corporate restructuring with the creation of a single business unit for the Middle East, North Africa and Turkey.
Among the banks, Unicredit marks -1,34%. Creval strengthens, rising by 0,72%, further and further away from the offer price of Credit Agricole Italia of 10,5 euros after the bank's board of directors deemed the price of the tender offer "inappropriate".
Some industrialists stand out among the worst: Cnh Industrial -1,83%, Stm -1,15%, Interpump -1,22%.
ATLANTIA, THE BENETTONS OPEN TO THE CDP PROPOSAL
Atlantic +0,31%. The shareholders' meeting did not approve the extension from 31 March to 31 July next of the Aspi spin-off project with the decisive vote of Edizione (Benetton) and Crt. All the others (1.167 in all, including large institutions such as Gic, Lazard and Tci) voted in favour, apart from 12 abstentions (equal to 0,14%). This paves the way for the CDP/funds proposal which should arrive in the next few days, the only one in the field at the moment for the reorganization of ASPI. But the small partners are on a war footing.
SUEZ REOPENS, D'AMICO BRAKES. CARRARO AIMS FOR DELISTING
D'Amico decreased (-1,7%) after the resolution of the crisis linked to the container ship which paralyzed the Suez canal for a week.
Carraro (+1,6%) was in line with and slightly exceeded the tender offer price of 2,4 euros announced over the weekend by the Carraro family with the aim of delisting the stock from Piazza Affari. The Albemarle fund, which controls 1% of the Paduan company, deems the price offered inadequate.
Shower of budgets yesterday for the AIM companies. The accounts Finlogic (+5,93%) and Shedir Pharma (+4,29%) shine after.
