After Mexico, it's Canada's turn. The markets are betting that by tomorrow evening, the date/ultimatum set by Donald Trump, Canada's accession to the customs agreement already signed by Mexico will be announced. The forecast gave Wall Street wings, dragged along by the giants of the new economy, the least involved in the tariff game.
- Apple, Amazon and Alphabet +1,5% led the race for records. Apple stock +1,5% set a new record at $222,23. A Morgan Stanley report boosted Amazon +3,4% just a whisker away from the trillion mark in value (975 billion).
- Hence a new shower of records: S&P 500 +0,58% over the 2.000 point threshold; Nasdaq +1% to 8.109,98. Dow Jones +0,24%.
CHINA HOLDS BACK, SCARED OF DUTIES, OIL RISES
The bull race did not involve Asia, focused on Trump's other ultimatum: on Tuesday 5, in fact, duties of 200 billion on Chinese imports will be triggered, barring surprises. Chinese indexes slow down: Shanghai -0,8% Hong Kong -0,7%. The yuan is also weak -0,15%. On parity Tokyo. The Korean index rose after Washington decided to exempt Hyundai and Posco from duties on aluminium.
On the front of the Petroleum Brent accelerated this morning to 77,20 dollars a barrel, Wti rose by 1% to 69,64 dollars. LU.S. crude stockpiles fell by 2,57 million barrels last week, well beyond expectations which had stood at around 1,5 million barrels. The overall stock dropped to 405,7 million barrels, the lowest since February 2015.
- Eni +0,5% has turned up in the final stages. All the oil companies have moved up the slope, Saipem + 0,7% Tenaris it reset the loss.
Türkiye AND ARGENTINA UNDER PRESSURE AGAIN
She's back under pressure there Turkish lira: Moody's downgraded its rating by 18 banks and 2 Turkish financial companies, including Yapi which is headed by Unicredit + 0,4%. Turkey sickness returns to weigh on too Astaldi -3%. An article by Wall Street Journal highlights Germany's concern for a possible contagion effect of the Ankara crisis, to the point of hypothesizing a "unilateral" aid plan from the German side.
The landslide continues argentine peso, slipped to new lows. President Mauricio Macri has asked the IMF to speed up the loan of 50 billion dollars needed to shore up the currency, now in free fall.
GERMANY HOLDS BACK THE MACRON REFORM
“Why should we weaken the European Union by creating a duplication?” With an interview with Financial Times the German Deputy Finance Minister Jorg Kukies distanced himself from the Macron plan: "We don't need this - he said - if anything, it is urgent to think of a budget that can contribute to competitiveness but also to convergence".
The stop to Macron falls simultaneously with the attacks of Salvini-Orban couple against the French president. The feeling is that Berlin is about to change course to face the sovereign advance more effectively.
BRUSSELS OPENS TO THE SOFT BREXIT. UP THE STERLING
Meanwhile, the game on Brexit is unlocked. Michel Barnier, the EU negotiator's representative, said: "We will offer London the best partnership ever achieved in history". The pound this morning rose to a three-month high at 1,3039 against the dollar.
MILAN BOUNCES, THUD OF ZARA IN MADRID
To follow today the European business confidence index.
- For once, Milan was not the center of concern. Business Square, which in the last month has accumulated a loss of more than -5%, more than double that of the European average, has achieved a rise of 0,68% to 20.760 points.
- They close in positive ground too Paris +0,3% and Frankfurt + 0,27% Madrid -0,4% limited damage after the splash of Inditex -6%: for the first time, the Zara maison did not hit its targets. Worse London -0,7%.
THE NEW 10-YEAR BTP SEEN OVER 3% AT AUCTION
The rebound of the Bel Paese is largely linked to the reduction of the spread to 270 points. The 10-year yield fell by 3,10 basis points to 0,40%, on the contrary, that of the XNUMX-year Bund rose, breaking through XNUMX%.
The spread against Spain also narrowed to 165 basis points from 175 on Tuesday, the highest since 2012.
The recovery was facilitated by the positive outcome of the auction of the six-month BOTs: demand was almost double the 6 billion offered, equally strong was the request for the reopening of the two-year CTZs.
On these positive premises, the market is preparing for the most important event: today's test on the medium-long term with an offer of 6-7,75 billion, including the new Btp 5 years, proposed for 3-3,75 billion.
The prediction is that yields, both 5 and 10 years, will rise to the highest levels since 2014. On the gray market the new benchmark October 2023 (coupon 2,45%) discounts a yield of 2,6% against 1,80% of the end-of-auction July on Btp March 2023.
The new ten-year Btp December 2028 on the secondary offers a yield of 3,31% against 2,87% at the end-July auction.
Speaking of ratings, after the postponement of the Moody's verdict on a possible downgrade, the market does not foresee any moves by Fitch Friday 31.
FERRARI FLY PUSHED BY ASTON MARTIN
In the tests of the GP of Piazza Affari he stands out Ferrari +4,2 in the wake of HSBC's 'buy' promotion, with a target price of 133 euros e of possible multiples of the next type of Aston Martin, scheduled for October with a free float of at least 30% and an expected enterprise value of 5 billion pounds (5,5 billion euros).
Fiat Chrysler -0,5%, filed a complaint with the American International Trade Commission challenging Mahindra and Mahindra (owner of Pininfarina) for violating certain patents.
The customs peace between the US and Mexico also favors Brembo +3,3% and Cnh Industrial + 2,2 %
NEW TENSIONS ON ATLANTIA, TIM SUFFERS
Atlantia +0,2%. New violent attack by Deputy Prime Minister Di Maio on the Benetton company. “CEO Castellucci says no to nationalization – he declared – but that a participation by the State is fine: first you made this mess and then you want a participation to save yourselves on the Stock Exchange? That's not our goal."
From the text of the conventions on motorway concessions it emerges that the latest directives guarantee a Sias +0,5% for the A4 section, a gross Wacc of 10,52%, which corresponds to a net Wacc of 7,16%. As regards the section of the A21 under management, the weighted average cost is equal to 10,68%, which becomes 6,65% net, according to the documentation made public by the Ministry of Transport.
Also counter the utilities: A2A + 1% Enel + 0,3% Snam -1,7% Terna. +0,3%.
It's no better at Tim -1,2%, among the worst blue chips.
BANKS IN RECOVERY, CUCINELLI COLLAPSES
The Banks have lengthened their pace in the final stages. The Financial Times reveals that in July Italian institutions bought BTPs for only 4 billion against 28 in May and 14 in June. Bpm bank + 1,8% Where's Banca + 1,4%. Ps + 4% Understanding + 1,3%.
FinecoBank + 1,8%.
Brunello Cucinelli -3%. Profit taking after the data. Has closed the first half of 2018 with a net profit of 25,78 million, up 29,9% over the same period last year.
RUPEA BRAKES PIAGGIO, CLABO SHOWCASES FOR STARBUCKS
In the rest of the list:
- slips Piaggio -3,4%. Weighs the Indian Rupee at historic lows.
- The race starts again Juventus +8,76%, with intense trading and equal to 2,36% of the capital.
- Clabus +3%. It has reached an agreement to supply display cases to Starbucks in Asia. Eight showcase versions were presented during a meeting at the Barista Regional Area Championship in Ho Chi Minh City. The value of the deal should be around 1,5 million dollars. The first half closed with revenues close to 31 million (+22%) and with a "significant leap" in adjusted Ebitda and adjusted net profit.
