The world population has reached 8,2 billion people and is expected to exceed 10 billion in the next 50-60 years. The latest Sace focus consequently draws this conclusion as the agri-food system represents one of the structural pillars of the global economy, with an overall estimated value of approximately 14,4 trillion dollars. The value of primary agricultural production is around 5 trillion and is expected to grow by 14% by 2034. The global market value of Food & Beverage It is estimated at around $9,4 T and is expected to grow over the next 15 years at an average annual rate of 3,75% when, in 2031, it will reach $11,8 T.
Agri-food: the focus
39% of the world's employed people work in the agri-food sector: the sector therefore plays a central role, employing over a billion people along the entire supply chain, with a particularly high concentration in emerging countries. In African economies, the sector employs over 60% of the workforce, in Asia exceeds 40%. In the West, employment and added value are increasingly concentrated in the downstream stages of the supply chain: in Europe, only 14,2% of the workforce is employed in the agri-food sector, while in the Americas the percentage rises to 22,2%.
On the international trade front, the main exporters are United States, Brazil, Netherlands, Germany, China, France, Canada, Spain e ItalyEurope as a whole is one of the world's largest exporters of high-value-added processed food products. The largest importers are, however, USA, China, EU, Japan e Uk, reflecting evolved consumption patterns and greater dependence on global value chains.
In recent years, the sector has undergone profound transformations. Population growth and the expansion of the middle class in emerging countries have driven the structural growth in global food demandAt the same time, however, cost pressures have intensified, particularly for raw materials and energy, and shocks linked to geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions have multiplied.
Agri-food: focus on Italy
Despite this, the agri-food sector remains one of the flagships of the Made in ItalyThe entire supply chain, boasting numerous regional varieties, boasts 858 agri-food and wine products with PDO, PGI, and TSG designations, the highest number in Europe. Specifically, between 2019 and 2025, cross-border sales increased at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8,1%, outperforming the 5% growth recorded by overall exports. The sector also represents a significant share of Italian exports: 1 in 10 goods exported across national borders is agri-food. 2025 was another year of growth: +5% (more than the +3,3% for the total), allowing exports to reach €72,5 billion in value, of which €62,5 billion in food, beverages, and tobacco and €10 billion in agricultural products.
This strong performance was driven by key sectors, including other food products (+12,7%), agricultural products (+9,4%), cheese and dairy products (+13,7%), meat (+10,4%), and baked goods and flour products (+3%). Sales of fruit and vegetables remained stable, while those of beverages decreased (-2,5%), particularly wine (-3,7% to €7,8 billion), and oils and fats (-8,6%), which were impacted by the decline in olive oil (-20% to €2,5 billion).
Italy has a territorial diversity that translates into a wealth and variety of agricultural and food products.Emilia Romagna and Lombardy It is the first region for exports with a value of 13,1 billion euros (+8% in 2025), followed by Lombardia (11,8 billion euros; +8%), Veneto (10,5 billion euros; +4,8%) and Piedmont (10,2 billion euros; +8,6%). Double-digit growth was recorded by Sicilia (1,9 billion euros; +11%) and Friuli-Venezia Giulia (1,8 billion euros; +11,6%).
Agri-food: focus on exports
Italian exports are concentrated mainly in nearby markets: approximately 59% are directed towards EU countries, while the remaining share goes to non-EU countries. Specifically, Germany, France, and the United States are the main destinations, accounting for nearly 37% of the sector's sales. Both German and French demand are increasing (+7,2% to €11,2 billion and +6,1% to €7,9 billion), driven by agricultural products, cheese, and dairy products. Exports to the United States, however, are contracting (-4,5%), particularly affected by lower sales of beverages, especially wine. Of particular significance is the growth recorded in Spain (+13,1%), widespread across all sectors. Significant growth was also reported by Eastern European countries, such as Poland (+15,6%), Romania (+10,2%), Croatia (+10,3%), and the Czech Republic (+9,4%).
As regards the less covered markets, it is worth mentioning the Turkey (+14%), where both processed products and ingredients and semi-finished products for the local food industry are in demand. Followed by Morocco (+71,2%), thanks to the modernization of food distribution and the expansion of the Horeca sector, also driven by international tourism.
The outlook is particularly positive for Asian markets, where nearly a third of global food demand will be concentrated by 2034. Vietnam (+4,1%), thanks to rapid urbanization, rising disposable income, and the expansion of the HoReCa sector, it will be a strong demand base, also favored by the country's role as a regional hub in Southeast Asia. The expansion of the urban middle class and the progressive Westernization of eating habits are the factors that will drive the increase in Italian agri-food exports to India, especially in the premium segments and international HoReCa.
La market diversification Destination is the strategy companies in the sector are focusing on to continue growing internationally. In this sense, we now wait to see how far the diplomatic and commercial action that led the EU to sign recent trade agreements with India and other countries will go. Mercosur. Hoping they can not only promote the growth of Italian exports, but also protect their added value and quality as indigenous products.
